Source: Duo Jing
Image Source: Generated by Wujie AI
Written at the end of the year of Gui Mao, a year of changes and adjustments. In this year, the demographic dividend has faded, kindergartens are facing closures, and education giants are transitioning to live streaming sales… Each track is seeking its own vitality.
Looking back at the past and anticipating the future, what possibilities and changes will the education and training industry encounter in 2024 after the changes and adjustments? Looking at the industry's development in recent years, some trends have already begun to emerge: under continued tightening policies, extracurricular training remains a hot topic, niche tracks such as study trips and scientific and technological education are emerging, and AIGC technology is gradually becoming "inseparable" from the teaching process… Based on industry insights, Duo Jing has explored and researched key events, reviewed and summarized the top ten keywords in the education industry in 2023, and predicted the top ten trends in the education and training industry in 2024.
Fertility is becoming an important issue in an aging society. Intensive policy signals have been released for the field of fertility and childcare.
In January 2024, the National Health and Health Commission held a national health conference in Beijing. The conference emphasized the need to accelerate the improvement of fertility support policies and vigorously develop universal childcare services. Against the backdrop of a macroscopic population, many regions subsequently implemented a series of pro-natal policies. For example, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government introduced a new baby birth incentive, and Guangxi included assisted reproductive technology projects in medical insurance, establishing a comprehensive system of fertility support policies to incentivize childbirth with tangible benefits.
As an important component of the fertility support system, childcare services are a crucial support for achieving long-term balanced population development. In October 2023, the National Health and Health Commission and four other departments issued the "Management Measures for Family Childcare Centers (Trial)," which clearly stipulates registration and filing, service content, personnel qualifications, housing facilities, safety and health, and supervision and management, further standardizing the development of the childcare industry.
Local governments subsequently increased efforts in childcare construction. In January 2024, the Gansu Provincial Health Commission issued the "Work Plan for Promoting the Development of Supportive Childcare Services in Medical and Health Institutions in Gansu Province," emphasizing the goal of "striving for all secondary and higher-level public medical institutions in the province to provide childcare services to account for 50% and 100% by 2024 and 2025, respectively. Primary medical and health institutions will treat childcare institutions as signing objects, sign service agreements, and carry out infant and child health management services" in accordance with the principle of signing all eligible contracts. The construction of a comprehensive childcare service system is improving, moving from "childcare for all" to "good childcare for all."
Kindergarten education and elderly education, as the two "endpoints" of lifelong education, are facing completely different fates.
On one end, kindergartens are accelerating closures, and transformation has become inevitable. With the national population experiencing negative growth, the first wave of kindergarten closures has arrived. According to data, China briefly experienced a peak in births from 2016 to 2017, but then sharply declined, with the number of births dropping to 10.2 million in 2021 and 9.56 million in 2022. Although the data for 2023 has not been released, some experts predict that the number of newborns in 2023 will drop to below 8 million. In 2022, the number of kindergartens nationwide decreased by 5610, and with the decrease in births, the number of children in kindergartens is expected to decrease by about 9 million next year.
According to "China Newsweek," in some places, private kindergartens have faced difficulties in enrollment since 2021 and 2022, and a small number of public kindergartens also have situations where they cannot enroll enough students. To solve the survival crisis, integrating preschool education and early childhood education into "integrated childcare" will be a key direction for kindergarten transformation.
On the other end, the silver economy is booming, and elderly education continues to grow. In January 2024, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Developing the Silver Economy to Enhance the Well-being of the Elderly," proposing to "accelerate the scale, standardization, clustering, and branding of the silver economy, cultivate high-precision products and high-quality service models." As an important means to cope with an aging society, the silver economy is poised for rapid development.
As part of the silver economy, the potential of interest education for middle-aged and elderly people is immeasurable. The "2024 Middle-aged and Elderly Interest Education Course Marketing Guide" pointed out that over 70% of "new middle-aged and elderly people" have had or are currently undergoing interest learning. With the popularization of the Internet and new online lifestyles, the shopping habits of the new middle-aged and elderly people are becoming increasingly proficient, which will drive the explosion of online course purchases. According to relevant agencies' estimates, the domestic middle-aged and elderly interest education market exceeded 30 billion in 2023, with broad development prospects.
Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood and development. Stable employment ensures the stability of the people and the security of the country. At the end of 2023, Suzhou issued the "Notice of the Municipal Government on Printing and Distributing the Measures for the Management of Talent Settlement in Suzhou," lowering the threshold for talent settlement, with three key adjustments: first, expanding the scope of "settlement before employment" to include those with undergraduate degrees, intermediate professional titles, and technicians; second, shortening the years of social security contributions and expanding the age range; third, recognizing cumulative social security contributions in the Yangtze River Delta.
Suzhou's move is just the "tip of the iceberg" in this "battle for talent." Prior to this, many central cities such as Nanjing and Qingdao relaxed settlement restrictions, with a total of 17 cities issuing new settlement policies to attract and gather talents. In terms of content, the policy adjustments in various regions mainly focus on relaxing talent settlement, followed by relaxing residency, social security contribution years, and allowing the purchase or rental of houses for settlement, precisely targeting essential needs such as clothing, food, housing, and transportation.
The "battle for talent" is intensifying, which is not unrelated to the continuous decline in population growth. According to preliminary statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 7.88 million newborns in 2023, a decrease of 1.68 million from 2022, with 11 million deaths, resulting in a negative population growth of 3.12 million. Against the backdrop of sluggish national population growth, major central cities are gradually losing the demographic dividend and have to continuously engage in "talent acquisition."
Shortly after the start of 2024, the first-tier city of Shanghai issued new housing policies, canceling the restriction on single people from outside the area to purchase houses in some regions, following the reduction of down payment ratios and mortgage interest rates. It is not difficult to see that lowering the threshold for settlement in major cities is the general trend. This "battle for talent" will continue to unfold in 2024.
Economic downturns, "double reduction" policies, and multiple crises have brought the era of subject training to a close, and non-subject training is taking the lead. Among them, scientific education and ideological and political education are experiencing an "upward" trend.
First, let's look at scientific education. The market size of this category is increasing, and the number of learners and penetration rate are also rising. Looking back at 2023, scientific education has been a keyword that has run through the reform and development of education in China. Globally, scientific education is also a high-frequency term of concern for international organizations and many countries around the world. Recently, policy documents such as the "Compulsory Education Curriculum Plan and Curriculum Standards (2022 Edition)" have continuously emphasized the importance of increasing the proportion of science class hours and cultivating the importance of cultivating reserves of talent for scientific and technological innovation. It is not difficult to see that the "policy balance" is tilting towards scientific education.
Next, let's look at ideological and political education. The demand for party building and ideological and political education is increasing, becoming one of the important ways to improve the quality of students and employees. At the same time, scientific and technological methods such as VR are increasingly being integrated into the field of ideological and political education. By using gamified design, they enhance the interest and attractiveness of learning, create an immersive learning environment, and interactive ideological and political education products are gradually becoming mainstream in the industry.
In recent years, smart hardware has become one of the battlegrounds in the education industry. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the compound annual growth rate of smart learning devices in China is 17.1%, and the total market size is expected to reach 145 billion yuan by 2026, with considerable room for future development.
As the track matures, the number of products and players is gradually increasing. From traditional learning machine companies such as Readboy and BBK to K12 transformation companies such as TAL Education and Yuanfudao, and to technology giants such as Baidu and iFlytek, smart hardware products are gradually becoming more diversified and intelligent. The smart hardware track has also entered a "zero-sum" mode similar to smartphones.
In the future, content and AI will become the two major focuses of competition in the smart hardware track. In terms of content, there is increasing collaboration between hardware companies and content companies, and learning machines with content advantages such as Xueersi will gain a greater advantage. In terms of technology, AI technology will be more deeply involved in the entire teaching process, enabling hardware learning to form a closed loop of interaction, feedback, correction, and progress.
Digitization and intelligence are accelerating their integration into the entire process of economic and social development. With the change in consumer habits, bookstores are also accelerating their digital transformation. Online channels have become the main battlefield for book sales, and Xinhua Bookstores across the country are establishing a "physical store + internet" model, creating a digital experience platform that provides readers with cultural consultation, book recommendations, and online e-commerce services, while using virtual space technology to develop multi-scene venue spaces and innovate forms of reader participation in reading.
The trend of digitization is driving the transformation of traditional industries and accelerating the cultivation of emerging industries, with innovative products such as educational smart hardware and AI smart classrooms emerging one after another. While these are popular, they also inevitably raise concerns about stricter regulations. Historically, booming industries tend to attract attention and regulation from relevant government departments. Within the educational smart hardware industry, the imperfection of AI technology and the lack of industry standards have become "shackles" limiting the industry's compliance space, and the uncertainty of regulatory review has become the "sword of Damocles" for industry development.
In response, suppliers of educational smart hardware products should adhere to the requirements of the "double reduction" policy, ensure compliance with content, and use them safely, refrain from engaging in illegal business, and avoid exacerbating educational anxiety, in order to ensure the healthy and long-term development of the industry through compliant operations.
Since 2023, with the lifting of the "lockdown line" of the epidemic, the market for study tours has gradually "warmed up," presenting a booming state during the May Day holiday and summer vacation. As a product form that combines cultural tourism, education, and practical functions, study tours have become an innovative form of connecting school education and extracurricular education, driven by multiple forces. As one of the very few projects in the education industry that can charge parents, study tours have also become one of the "ways out" for many institutions to transform. Tourism companies, educational companies, destination cities, and other stakeholders are collaborating to build study tour education, and the market size is becoming more diversified.
To support the development of study tours, policy dividends are being released. The "China Study Tour Travel Development Report 2022-2023" from the China Tourism Academy shows that at the national level, more departments are paying attention to and supporting study tours, and higher-level policies are constantly being introduced. At the provincial level, study tours and labor practices have become important content for the promotion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in various cultural, tourism, and education fields. The integration, linkage, and collaboration of relevant functional departments in base camp evaluation, study tour course development, and guide training are strengthening.
At the same time, with the deepening of social public welfare forces, study tours will also become normalized. For example, cities are opening museums, science museums, art galleries, and youth activity centers to primary and secondary school students, recruiting volunteers to conduct theme activities, and establishing inter-city shared channels for venue resources. These methods will promote the normalization of study tours and help students independently plan study activities.
In recent years, many education companies have set their sights on overseas markets and chosen to "go global" for survival. This is rooted in the huge growth potential of overseas markets. According to the data platform Statista, the global online education market is expected to reach 370 billion US dollars by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of over 20%.
The introduction of the "double reduction" policy in 2021 was a key turning point for education companies to transform and "go global." In fact, since 2012, the Chinese education market has been paying attention to internationalization and has been opening up the path to go global through capital, technology, and content. Today, the intensification of education globalization has led to fierce competition among institutions, with course fees being increasingly squeezed. Education companies choosing to go global should carefully assess the risks of value extension in the industrial chain.
Observing the international study abroad market in reverse, it is further moving towards a younger age as it recovers. With the easing of global epidemic conditions and relaxed immigration policies, the international study abroad market is experiencing a new round of recovery, and at the same time, there is a return of younger study abroad groups. According to data from the Association of International Educators, the number of Chinese students studying K12 education in the United States has grown rapidly, with the number of Chinese students studying high school in the United States increasing by as much as 98.6 times in the past 10 years, far exceeding the 14 times increase in the number of graduate and undergraduate students, indicating a continuous penetration of the study abroad population to younger ages.
In recent years, many vocational colleges have actively promoted the upgrading to undergraduate institutions. As of November 2023, the Ministry of Education has announced a total of 35 vocational colleges. Looking at the data, there has been an increase of 17 institutions in 2023 alone, making it the fastest year for the acceleration of vocational colleges to undergraduate institutions.
The development of vocational undergraduate education cannot be separated from policy support. The "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Modern Vocational Education" proposes that by 2025, the enrollment scale of vocational undergraduate education should not be less than 10% of the enrollment scale of higher vocational education. In 2021, the total enrollment in national higher vocational schools was 5.57 million, while the enrollment in vocational undergraduate education was 41,000. This means that within 4 years, the enrollment scale of vocational undergraduate education will expand nearly 14 times. With the increase in the number of institutions and the expansion of enrollment scale, vocational undergraduate education is stepping into the forefront and gradually gaining recognition in vocational education.
After the upgrade of vocational colleges to undergraduate institutions, vocational education has also obtained education at the undergraduate level, while improving the vocational education system and the entire education system. The new version of the vocational education professional catalog sets 247 vocational undergraduate majors, and the "Opinions on the Authorization and Awarding of Bachelor's Degrees in Vocational Schools at the Undergraduate Level" incorporates vocational undergraduate education into the existing bachelor's degree system. Vocational undergraduate education has made significant progress in top-level design, and in the new year, vocational undergraduate education will enter a key period of development.
The industrial college is a B-end business area born out of national reforms. In 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission and eight other departments jointly issued the "Action Plan for Empowering and Enhancing the Integration of Industry and Education in Vocational Education (2023-2025)," pointing out that it is necessary to "support industrial parks and vocational colleges, ordinary universities to jointly establish mixed-ownership branch schools or industrial colleges," further promoting the construction and development of industrial colleges.
Exploring a feasible path for the construction of mixed-ownership industrial colleges will be a key driver for the deep integration of the education chain and the industrial chain, and for the transformation of government-run education to a model with diverse social participation. In recent years, Sichuan, Hebei, Xinjiang, Shandong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and other regions have actively explored feasible paths. Industrial colleges represented by the Zunyi Live E-commerce Industrial College have introduced real-life scenarios, real business, and real performance into the entire process of course teaching through methods such as live streaming rooms.
Riding the wave of policies, mixed-ownership industrial colleges in various regions are accelerating their development. Various industries, industry-education alliances, and industry communities are working together to continuously enrich new models for the construction of the modern vocational education system, and to build a collaborative development mechanism involving the government, industry, enterprises, and schools.
Exploring the development of the education and training industry involves multidimensional considerations such as policy environment, technological advancement, consumer demand, and market competition.
In terms of the policy environment, it is expected that a series of policies for the education and training industry will be further implemented in 2024. In terms of technological advancement, in 2024, large models will open up a broader stage for the education and training industry. It is believed that in the future, with the development of large models and artificial intelligence technology, the education and training industry will nurture more innovative products.
Regarding consumer demand, while the "double reduction" policy targets K9 subject education and training, it cannot eliminate consumer demand. Grasping consumer demand is the key to seeking growth for education and training institutions. Especially in the process of transitioning from weak demand to moderate demand in the quality education industry. Institutions need to first understand the direction of demand and have a clear industry awareness in order to produce high-value products that truly meet user needs.
In terms of market competition, the effect of industry leaders will continue. Traditional leading companies will fully leverage their content advantages to further integrate the segmented market. Internet industry leaders will continue to leverage technology to transition towards digitalization. Emerging industry leaders and super individuals will gradually rise, jointly creating a significant competitive landscape for industry leaders.
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