Analysts predict that NFTs will experience a significant rebound in 2024, but this does not mean that old projects will surge again.
Author: Decrypt
Translator: Jonathan
From all perspectives, the cryptocurrency is at a crossroads, and industry leaders almost unanimously believe that 2024 could be one of the most important years for cryptocurrency to date, in terms of the market, legal and regulatory environment, and the Web3 startup ecosystem.
Whether these events will ultimately propel the industry out of the winter and to new heights, or jeopardize it, remains another question.
But dear readers, please do not panic. Although nothing is certain in the future - especially in the crypto field - Decrypt has spoken with analysts in the finance, policy, and NFT sectors to uncover the situation behind the scenes.
After discussing the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs, how Bitcoin and TradFi will eventually merge, and when U.S. regulations will become clear, let's take a look at whether NFTs will rebound in 2024.
In the enduring bear market of cryptocurrencies, few asset classes have performed worse than NFTs. Even though NFT trading volume has recently increased slightly, the industry has still fallen 93% from the crazy highs of early 2022.
A sign of the extent of the decline: in most circles, even the word "NFT" itself has become a dirty word. If the cryptocurrency market does indeed rebound, will NFTs be able to follow suit?
Pedro Herrera, research director at DappRadar, believes that NFTs will experience a significant recovery in 2024, but he is not talking about the personal profile picture (PFP) market.
"We've already seen a slowdown in collectibles like Bored Apes and CryptoPunks in 2021."
Herrera told Decrypt: "People are starting to understand the true concepts behind NFTs, such as proof of ownership, authenticity, and so on."
Herrera believes that the technology behind NFTs has finally matured to the point where it can start to realize its full potential, which far exceeds facilitating the exchange of cartoon animal JPEGs.
He pointed out the development in tokenizing real-world assets ("imagine your mortgage as an NFT!"), gaming, and the metaverse - areas that experienced a speculative bubble burst last year, but Herrera expects a full rebound with the diffusion of high-quality AR and VR hardware, such as the upcoming Apple Vision Pro.
"We're starting to see many use cases beyond simple collectibles," Herrera said. "I believe this trend will continue to be strong in 2024."
Analysts hope to clarify that this does not mean that all PFPs have disappeared. A few blue-chip NFT series such as Pudgy Penguins, Bored Ape Yacht Club, and CryptoPunks have successfully developed past collectibles into strong IP brands with value in both digital and physical realms through first-mover advantage or clever strategies.
Herrera believes that with the maturity of the NFT industry, these few series should now be able to grow and develop alongside the industry, but as the NFT industry emerges from the crypto winter and enters the next stage, the vast majority of NFT collectibles may miss the opportunity.
"Unfortunately, 90% to 95% of the collections we saw during the NFT bull market period will not come back," he said.
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