This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate according to this, you are responsible for your own gains and losses.

Beijing trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.

Let's start by looking at an on-chain data - the proportion of holders for more than 1 year.

Generally, holders for more than 1 year can be called long-term holders. The proportion of long-term holders in the chart below has been rapidly increasing since October 2021, corresponding to the fact that holders who bought in October 2020 at the beginning of the last bull market's main uptrend have been holding on. Currently, the proportion of holders for more than 1 year has reached around 70%. There have been minor decreases in between, but overall there has not been a significant decline.

During the entire downtrend of 2022, long-term holders have been in a net holding state. In this situation, the market cannot withstand the selling pressure (indicating that the volume and liquidity of the cryptocurrency market itself are insufficient), and the price fell to below 20,000. So is there a possibility that it's not that these long-term holders don't want to sell, but that they can't sell. Part of the reason is the issue of market volume and liquidity, which forces them to continue holding. Another part may be due to mechanism reasons that prevent them from selling, with typical representatives such as Grayscale. Fortunately, the development of derivatives in the cryptocurrency market over the past two years has been much better than in 2017, so long-term holders can reduce losses through some hedging means.

If spot ETFs are listed, including Grayscale's transformation into spot ETFs, there will definitely be a portion of long-term holders who will sell and leave using the liquidity of the US stock market. It's not possible for 100% of long-term holders to continue holding.

Even if only 1% of the selling pressure exists, at a price of 43,000, it would require a real capital of 9 billion US dollars to absorb it. But the scale of the realization is likely to be more than 1%. This also indirectly confirms that long-term holders find it difficult to reduce holdings solely relying on the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market itself. After all, the total scale of USDT+USDC is currently only 117 billion US dollars (92B+25B). The basic total amount is there, no matter how much the multiplier effect is, it's just that.

Therefore, after the listing of ETFs, it is not very realistic to expect the market to quickly and continuously rise again, in the opinion of the Beijing trader. Both short-term speculation and some long-term holders have the need to realize gains. Only after this selling pressure is fully absorbed and turnover is achieved, can we expect the next round of rise. This is another process of capital game. If you can handle the subsequent rise, it will go up; if you can't, it will continue to fall until the selling pressure is exhausted.

Therefore, the Beijing trader believes that the short-term trend is not very important. Even if spot ETFs appear to be approved in mid-January, and the short-term market reaches a new high, it is unlikely to be sustainable. There will definitely be a turnover process.

Yesterday, the entire market experienced a rapid pullback, clearing out the leverage. Looking back, the decline in the overall market was not significant, around 10%, with a low of just over 40,000. The Beijing trader has mentioned before that under the long-term divergence of indicators, a correction is bound to come, and the later it comes, the better. The market is still within the previously defined range of fluctuations. The trend has not changed significantly.

From experience, the lower edge of this pin is likely to be filled. In other words, it is likely to return to around 40,000 again. At that time, it will be a test of support. This kind of indicator correction in the market is normal for a couple of months. Either the decline is sufficient, or the time for fluctuation is sufficient. The process of fluctuation is quite challenging.

Let's take a look at the latest market share index of USDT. Currently, the index is still effective, and after oscillating near the support line for a few days, it has encountered a rapid pullback. If there is a situation where the price falls below the low point of the decline, it is very likely to usher in a second round of decline. In fact, it is still a test of the support strength of BTC at 40,000.

Recently, Ark's Wooden Sister has continued to reduce her holdings of Coinbase stock, Coinbase executives have cashed out, and MicroStrategy's CEO has announced the sale of shares. Therefore, the Beijing trader believes that at least logically, the previous inference is correct.

Follow me and use minimal operations to maximize trend profits.

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