Is the rumored Christmas crash true?

Previously, the final approval deadline for the BTC spot ETF of the Ark Fund was set for January 10, with a potential drop 10-20 days in advance. Some netizens suggested that because Christmas is being cleared, there will be a drop. Others believe it is due to the Christmas economic downturn.

In the United States, the term "window dressing" is commonly used to describe the behavior of financial institutions adjusting their investment portfolios at the end of a quarter or year (such as around Christmas). The purpose of this behavior is to make the investment portfolio look more attractive or to align with the strategic objectives in quarterly or annual reports.

If there is such an impact, institutions should not only sell Bitcoin at Christmas, there may be some activity throughout December. There may have been an impact in previous years as well.

Over the past 10 years, the probability of an increase in December is 40%, with an average increase of 32.43% (the fourth highest increase) and an average decrease of -13.92% (the seventh highest decrease). In the 12 months, December's performance is not the worst, but there is a certain downside risk. Looking at the trend from December to January over the past 10 years, the probability of a bottom in these two months is higher from December 15-19.

Let's take a look at the daily performance from December to January.

High probability of decline, generally declining:

• December 21 (80% chance of decline, average decline of 2.56%)
• December 27 (70% chance of decline, average decline of 2.37%)
• January 17 (70% chance of decline, average decline of 1.86%)
• January 20 (70% chance of decline, average decline of 1.29%)
• January 23 (70% chance of decline, average decline of 1.53%)
• January 30 (70% chance of decline, average decline of 2.71%)

If it does not decline, it has already declined significantly, with a large average decline:

• December 18 (40% chance of decline, average decline of -6.46%)
• December 20 (40% chance of decline, average decline of -5.54%)
• January 7 (40% chance of decline, average decline of -6.57%)
• January 14 (50% chance of decline, average decline of -5.41%)
• January 27 (40% chance of decline, average decline of -5.87%)

High probability of decline and large decline simultaneously:

• December 16 (54.55% chance of decline, average decline of -6.19%)
• January 11 (60% chance of decline, average decline of 6.15%)
• January 21 (60% chance of decline, average decline of 6.21%)

From historical data, there is no evidence to suggest a significant decline at Christmas. You may need to be cautious before Christmas.

The recent weekend has seen many friends feeling pessimistic. In my personal opinion, the current market is similar to around $26,000 before. Many friends' analyses are bullish and bearish. I still believe that the current trend is about the Bitcoin spot ETF. Unless there is very clear information indicating that the spot ETF cannot be approved, the likelihood of a significant price drop is not very high.

In other words, without changing the main narrative of Bitcoin, it is difficult for the price to change substantially. There is no need to speculate at the macro level now, and there is nothing much to say about the halving. Leaving the spot ETF, the price of Bitcoin is limited even if it does not rise. Unless the SEC clearly indicates in advance that Wood's application will be rejected.

It is possible that it will not fall below $40,000. After all, next week is the Christmas market. Since 2017, BTC has indeed experienced a slight decline before and after Christmas, but the decline is not very large. And at least so far, the main calls from ETF analysts have not stopped. Whether it will pass on January 10, I don't know, but I haven't seen any definite news yet.

The problem with Christmas is the lack of liquidity, which is scarcer than regular weekends and holidays. Although this does not necessarily mean it will definitely decline, the lack of liquidity definitely means a lack of depth, and price fluctuations may be greater. I almost forgot that Coinbase has reached a new all-time high. From my perspective, the probability of this spot ETF being approved is still slightly higher than 50%. In this FOMO sentiment, if it remains so, I estimate that Bloomberg will be dismantled.

In the currency circle, you need to have a keen sense of timing and keep up with a good team and a good leader. Follow the public account: Cryptofish, and you are already halfway to success in the currency circle!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。