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Bitcoin soaring: "Does the soaring momentum herald the prelude to a bigger event?"

CN
KeplerResearch
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2 years ago
AI summarizes in 5 seconds.

It is worth noting that _in the short 60-second candle of BTC, a shocking 6% (about 78 million US dollars) of all open contracts disappeared. Curious about what is driving this surge?

Spot Purchases

The purchase behavior of Bitcoin (spot premium) has been ongoing. This has led to the funding rate of exchanges dropping to negative values. You can think of it this way: when the market is a bit too pessimistic, negative funding means that those shorting Bitcoin are paying fees to the optimistic (long) ones.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)

This is the smallest discount of the year. Now, investors can dive in with a 15.87% discount and get a piece of Bitcoin. This is much lower than the 44.03% figure on June 13th. The gap between the price of GBTC and actual Bitcoin trading is narrowing.

There are rumors that the narrowing of the discount is due to the SEC choosing not to appeal the GBTC case. Therefore, the GBTC discount has hit a two-year low, and people are feeling FOMO. Market analysts interpret this as a strong indication that a spot Bitcoin ETF is about to be launched, Bloomberg analysts predict a 90% chance of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF by January 2024.

Bitcoin is dancing up and down, touching higher highs and higher lows. Essentially, Bitcoin is now at a moment where it could set a new higher low!

The upcoming high point of Bitcoin will determine whether it will soar to $40,000 or plummet to $20,000. Given the compression of the one-dimensional average line, the market structure remains fundamentally bullish.

When the price returns to $28,000, or exceeds this figure and stays there, we may see some more positive signals.

Nearly 6% of open contracts were wiped out in the first minute of the surge, as the market began bidding for BTC perpetual contracts, and a large number of shorts were sold off.

But currently, it is mainly the rebound of Bitcoin, with most altcoins lagging behind, Bitcoin's dominance is currently rebounding, causing altcoins to bleed. That being said, since the recent low, the performance of certain altcoins (such as SOL) has been better than the overall market. We need to pay attention to these altcoins, as they may perform well in the next cycle.

Note: All content represents the author's personal views, is not investment advice, and should not be interpreted in any way as tax, accounting, legal, business, financial, or regulatory advice. Before making any investment decisions, you should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice on tax consequences.

Author: More content on KeplerResearch public account

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