Most trades involve a mix of fear and the belief that one is more capable than they think. Every trader should have two realizations: the courage to start from scratch and the acceptance of the unfinished. An excellent trader is someone who, despite experiencing failure time and time again, never loses their passion!
The most significant data of the week was announced overnight—the US CPI. From the published value, the annual rate of 3.7% is consistent with the previous value but higher than the market's expected 3.6%. In terms of the monthly rate, it reached 0.4%, also higher than the expected value of 0.3%. It can be said that following the PPI, the US CPI in September continued to accelerate compared to the previous month, while the core CPI remained steady in August due to high housing costs. Another core inflation indicator—excluding housing services CPI—increased to 0.61% month-on-month, reaching the highest growth rate in a year, highlighting inflation stickiness.
After the CPI data was released, comments from the "New American Fed Communication Agency" suggested that the slowdown in inflation progress stalled in September, indicating that the road to completely eliminate price pressure may be bumpy. The Fed still cannot rule out the possibility of a rate hike in December and is unlikely to announce a pause in rate hikes. What we need to focus on now is another crucial data before the November decision, which is the report on the Fed's favorite inflation indicator—the PCE price index. The real drama is yet to come!
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart is consolidating near the middle and lower bands, in a corrective phase within a downtrend. The previous breakthrough acceleration is currently just a pause, not a bottoming formation. The rebound space and formation are not enough to complete the bottoming and recovery, so the main idea is to maintain a bearish mindset. It has only changed from a weak downtrend to a volatile downtrend in the short term, and the operational rhythm will be slower.
For friends holding short positions, they can hold on, and those with light positions can wait to add positions near 26900-27100 on the rebound. Intraday, first pay attention to the support at 26500-26300, and let the bullets continue to fly!
Determine the range after a certain space is reached, focus on the range, and the trend comes second. The key lies in grasping the range and the accuracy of entry points. Specific operational points are subject to real-time trading. For those who are uncertain in the short term and have difficulty grasping the situation, you can chat with Lao Bai for 24-hour online guidance!
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