Market Focus
The US court overturned the decision of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), paving the way for the first spot Bitcoin ETF.
Grayscale's GBTC daily trading volume has risen to the highest level since the crypto market crash in June 2022.
Bloomberg analyst: The SEC may reject the listing of a Bitcoin spot ETF based on reasons such as Bitcoin custody or settlement.
Bloomberg ETF analyst: The SEC has 45 days to submit a full hearing.
The most significant news yesterday was Grayscale winning the lawsuit against the SEC. Following the news of partial victory, the biggest beneficiaries were GBTC and Coinbase. The former is directly related to the Grayscale ETF, with the negative premium continuously narrowing, while Coinbase is the custodian for many ETF applicants this year. If the ETF is approved later on, Coinbase's profits will directly increase, which will be reflected in its stock performance.
It is important to note that the media has widely reported that winning the lawsuit is equivalent to the ETF being approved, but this viewpoint is incorrect. Or rather, at present, Grayscale has only won half the battle, similar to Ripple, and the other half depends on the SEC's subsequent actions. For example, in the previous case of XRP, there was also a victory and media hype about blockchain, but the final result was the SEC filing an appeal again, leading to a prolonged battle.
The outcome of the Grayscale event cannot rule out the possibility of the SEC continuing to file lawsuits. Because the key to Grayscale's victory as determined by the three judges lies in the discriminatory nature of the SEC's approval, as well as the overlap between futures ETFs and spot ETFs. The specific evolution of Grayscale and the SEC's subsequent actions need to be further analyzed.
In short, Grayscale's victory will have a positive short-term impact, mainly driven by sentiment, and it is also positive for long-term expectations. The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF is worth looking forward to. Once the ETF is approved, BTC will officially join the ranks of global mainstream assets, just as gold did in the past. However, in the medium term, it does not have a significant impact.
Because Grayscale's victory does not mean that the ETF will be approved immediately, nor does it mean that there will be an influx of new funds. The SEC can easily come up with a new excuse for custody and once again put Grayscale into a prolonged battle similar to XRP.
From a technical perspective, the current highest point for Bitcoin is around 28,000, and it is expected to pull back. At the same time, the 4-hour fund flow is about to reach overbought territory. If there is no second acceleration, it will face resistance. At the same time, the hourly chart structure is also approaching overbought territory, so from a technical perspective, there will be a pullback during the day to test the effectiveness of the support below.
Due to the Grayscale event, BTC has returned to the 26,800 area, making it the support level for the pullback, while the 28,000 area has become a new resistance zone. It is not advisable to chase the rise near 28,000, and strong resistance is located near 28,400.
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