Unusual activity has been recorded in the XRP derivatives market, a development that typically precedes major price moves. As CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn noted, aggregate open interest in XRP futures jumped by $171.74 million, or 20.46%, in just one hour.
Such a large capital inflow puts the token in a make-or-break situation as it hovers near the crucial psychological level of $1.00, with market participants split into two camps ahead of a key macroeconomic report.
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Some short-term traders view the spike as preparation for a breakout of the key level. Rising open interest alongside a declining asset price often signals an influx of new sellers opening short positions in anticipation of further losses.
In the short term, the situation for XRP looks tense, as the token has moved close to the critical level following its recent decline. At the same time, according to CoinGlass data, the weighted average funding rate remains positive at 0.0080%.
XRP/USD price and aggregated open interest 1-hour chart, Source: CryptoQuant / Maartunn
This indicates that long positions remain present in the market, with traders attempting to hold their ground despite bearish pressure and XRP's decline toward $1.01.
Meanwhile, large investors are actively using the current situation to accumulate XRP. Whale addresses have recently acquired more than 380 million XRP, bringing their combined holdings to approximately 13% of the token's total market supply.
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From the buyers' perspective, if bulls manage to defend the psychological level of $1.00 and break through the nearest resistance at $1.06, all the futures volume accumulated today could become fuel for a reversal.
The forced closure of short positions in such a short-squeeze scenario could quickly push the price toward the targets of $1.35 and $1.64.
US macroeconomic data in focus
The reason both sides have decided to make large bets today lies beyond XRP's chart. Fresh US inflation data, measured by the Consumer Price Index, will be released tomorrow, Aug. 12. It is a key indicator for financial markets and will influence the Federal Reserve's next steps on interest rates.
The sudden $171 million inflow within one hour represents an advance allocation of capital ahead of the macroeconomic trigger. Tomorrow's report will be the make-or-break moment: it will either finally break the bulls' defense at $1.00 or trigger a powerful rally driven by short liquidations.
In either case, the next 24 hours are likely to be highly volatile for XRP.
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