Written by: Chaoxiang Research

On the last trading day of July, the U.S. stock market saw two numbers that haven’t been seen for many years. Amazon surged 15% in a single day, marking the largest single-day increase since 2012; Apple fell 7.4% on the same day, marking the largest single-day decline since April last year. The U.S. Treasury market was also unsettled, with the 10-year yield soaring over 30 basis points in a single month, marking the largest July increase since 2005, and the 30-year yield reaching 5.27%, a new high since 2007. Over the weekend, Trump suddenly announced the cancellation of military strikes against Iran, causing oil prices to plunge over 6% when the market opened on Monday, but Iran quickly denied ever requesting a ceasefire, leaving the true direction of the situation shrouded in fog.

Amazon's 15% surge creates the largest increase in 14 years, Apple falls sharply by 7.4%

The S&P 500 rose 0.70%, closing at 7489.72 points. The Dow Jones rose 0.53%, closing at 52485.03 points. The Nasdaq rose 1%, closing at 25373.853 points. The China concept stock index closed up 1.47%, with an accumulated weekly increase of 8.09%, and a total increase of 12.84% for July.

Amazon was the absolute star of the day, closing up 15%, marking the largest single-day increase since 2012, with a total market value approaching $2.93 trillion. The revenue growth rate of AWS cloud services hit a new high in 18 quarters, and the company also raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance, with management's judgment being that the demand for AI computing power will continue to exceed supply, and the supply gap may last until 2028.

In stark contrast, Apple's performance saw a sharp decline, closing down 7.4%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2025, as the market clearly did not buy the company's relatively conservative guidance for the next quarter. Storage chip stocks also remained sluggish, with the U.S. storage chip index falling 1.58%, and a cumulative weekly decline of 5.30%, with nearly a 30% drop for July; SK Hynix fell 3.54%, and Micron fell 5.90%.

U.S. Treasury yields hit new records, 30-year yield reaches highest since 2007

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by about 6 basis points last Friday, closing at 4.74%, with a monthly surge of over 30 basis points in July, marking the largest July increase since 2005. The 30-year yield also rose, closing at 5.271%, the highest level since July 2007.

Gold and oil prices fluctuate, cryptocurrency initially rises then falls

Spot gold fell 1.27%, closing at $4051.30 per ounce, remaining basically flat for the week. Spot silver fell 1.89%, closing at $57.8705 per ounce. WTI crude oil rose 1.29%, closing at $84.67 per barrel, still down 5.19% for the week, but gained 22.23% for the entire month of July. Brent crude oil rose 1.22%, closing at $90.12 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of 23.53% in July. Bitcoin opened at $64724.03, up 1.3%, before retreating to $63652.09 in the early session; Ethereum opened at $1917.16, up 0.4%, before falling to $1877.52 in the early session.

Trump suddenly halts strikes against Iran, the navigation of Hormuz Straits remains a mystery

The situation in the Middle East over the weekend was like a roller coaster ride. Previously, the U.S. and Israel had planned to launch "the most intense" bombings on Iran's energy infrastructure over the weekend, targeting power plants and refineries, and had even discussed cutting off electricity supplies to Tehran. Iran was also prepared for a comprehensive counterattack against key Israeli infrastructure and U.S. energy facilities in the Middle East.

Just as tensions were escalating, Trump suddenly reversed course on social media, stating that Iran and several Middle Eastern countries had actively reached out to request a pause, and both sides had agreed on a rough framework, with the core being the restoration of normal passage through the strait, and the hidden dangers of the nuclear issue considered resolved. The Saudi Crown Prince had also called the U.S. side previously, urging a de-escalation of the situation.

However, the credibility of this news soon came into question. Iran categorically denied ever requesting a ceasefire, with Iranian news agencies citing sources as saying that the claim of reopening the Hormuz Strait was purely a rumor, and that no agreement had been reached. The Israeli Prime Minister learned of the U.S. halting the strikes through Trump's social media posts, admitting he experienced "several hours of complete information vacuum." On Sunday, an LNG ship carrying Qatari goods was hit by unknown projectiles while crossing the Hormuz Strait, causing the cabin to become inoperable, and the ship lost power, drifting at sea, fortunately without reports of injuries. On Monday morning in the Asia-Pacific market, as the news of the canceled strikes spread, Brent crude oil dropped by as much as 6.7%.

The U.S., Japan, and South Korea join forces to intervene in the currency market, yen sees the largest intraday increase since May

An easily overlooked major event also happened last week. The U.S. Treasury Department took unprecedented actions to manage the exchange rate, instructing the New York Federal Reserve to enlist several Wall Street banks to help sell euros and buy yen, collaborating with Japan and South Korea in a joint intervention not seen in nearly thirty years. The external analysis interprets the underlying calculations behind this move as being much deeper than simply stabilizing the exchange rate, as it is concerned that the stock and bond markets in Japan and South Korea can no longer hold up, with pressures propagating through the AI industry chain.

The dollar fell 1% against the yen on Friday, breaking below the 158 barrier, marking the largest intraday decline since May.

The South Korean market saw a significant reversal in funds on the same day, with the KOSPI attracting a record net inflow of 7.2 trillion won on July 31, marking a historical high, and domestic pension funds shifting from net selling to net buying. Citigroup believes that the funding conditions for South Korean stocks have turned from headwind to tailwind, maintaining their target of ten thousand points unchanged.

Two other major events last week: Citadel takes over AI stock god, Kioxia launches a major buyback

The hedge fund "AI stock god" Leopold's Situational fund suffered a liquidity crisis with a 67% asset drop in July, leading Citadel to seize the opportunity to buy this $16 billion position at over a 10% discount, so the largest forced sell-off in the market has been digested, and technology stocks across the U.S., China, and South Korea have subsequently rebounded. Leopold himself has written to investors, acknowledging that he will take full responsibility and pledging not to borrow from banks to leverage in the future.

Goldman Sachs analyzed the trend in July and concluded that although the indexes appeared calm on the surface, underneath, there was a fierce round of position cleansing, with trades in AI and momentum experiencing the most significant forced deleveraging, and what the market values is shifting from "how well the story is told" to "whether money can be made." The broad direction of the bull market remains unchanged, but the days of buying blindly and making profits are over.

On the storage chip front, Kioxia fired the first shot by announcing a buyback plan of up to 800 billion yen, along with setting a total return ratio target at 50%, which is a first for the storage industry. Nomura expects that the South Korean storage giants will also follow suit with historic buyback waves. Samsung Electronics' long-term contract terms were reported to significantly favor the supply side, limiting room for price reductions while allowing for virtually unlimited pricing increases, with DRAM and NAND spot prices expected to continue to rebound ahead of the fourth quarter peak season.

This week's focus: Jackson Hole meeting outlook, multiple countries to release PMI data

The biggest suspense in the market this week is the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting of the Federal Reserve in August. Morgan Stanley has observed a key point, that Wash's approach of "clear objectives, unclear paths" is intentional; he is willing to repeatedly say that inflation is relatively high and will eventually meet standards, but he refuses to disclose how to proceed or when to act. If the next few inflation data continue to exceed expectations, the probability of becoming more hawkish in the September meeting will only increase.

This week will also see the release of manufacturing PMI data for China, Japan, South Korea, the U.S., the Eurozone, and the UK.