Since FTX entered bankruptcy restructuring at the end of 2022, multiple rounds of asset liquidation and compensation expectations have been key variables in the market's assessment of selling pressure and the pace of "trapped fund" recovery. On July 13, 2026, Sunil, the representative of FTX creditors, revealed on the X platform that the next round of distribution is expected to be executed on July 31, amounting to approximately $600 million. Compared to the massive distribution plan of about $9.6 billion on March 31 this year, this round's scale has significantly shrunk, indicating a clear decrease in the available funds pool, as the restructuring enters its later stages, the marginal impact of a single distribution on overall liquidity is weakening. At the same time, Sunil confirmed that about 45 jurisdictions, including China, Egypt, and Russia, remain excluded from this round of distribution, resulting in this portion of creditor funds continuing to be "locked," and the global capital recovery path showing regional differentiation: on one end is the upcoming $600 million of new liquidity that may be converted into USD cash positions, BTC/ETH positions, or risk asset purchases; on the other end is the short-term inability to recover funds, but which still constitutes potential selling pressure and reallocation force in the long term. In the context of still relatively high macro interest rates and the overall valuation recovery of risk assets having gone through a round, how this smaller but regionally unequal distribution will change the geographical distribution of investable funds, impact creditors' willingness to re-enter the blockchain or exchange currencies, and reshape risk preferences between BTC/ETH and other crypto assets is the first question the market needs to address moving forward.

From $9.6 billion to $600 million: FTX liquidation enters its final stage

From the previously planned distribution of about $9.6 billion on March 31 to Sunil's mention of this "next round" expected to be only about $600 million, the nearly one-order magnitude reduction in distribution size is a typical trajectory as bankruptcy restructuring moves from the mid-stage to the final phase: large, broadly covered main repayments have been basically arranged, and subsequent rounds will focus more on clearing residual assets and specific complex claims. Since entering bankruptcy proceedings at the end of 2022, FTX has undergone multiple rounds of fund distributions, and the current round amount is significantly lower than previous plans, indicating a significant compression of the uncertainty concerning "how many assets still need to be liquidated" and "how many claims remain unprocessed" in absolute size.

For the crypto market, the decrease in distribution size on one hand weakens the narrative of "FTX selling pressure": as the largest round of about $9.6 billion compensation has already been partially absorbed and priced by the market during its prior time window, the subsequent approximately $600 million liquidation demand, whether through potential OTC disposals or on-market selling, will more easily be hedged by global liquidity, making it difficult to constitute a systemic level selling pressure event. On the other hand, the "incremental liquidity expectations" on the compensation side are also marginally cooling—compared to one-time large cash recovery, this medium-scale batch return resembles more of a "long-tail supplementary issuance," which will not bring about a new round of concentrated passive buying to the market, but its signal significance lies in the fact that the duration of FTX-related risks has been significantly shortened, and the long-term uncertainty premium and systemic risk discount due to "black box assets" are being slowly unloaded. What needs to be observed moving forward is whether the market will continue to lower the pricing on residual risks of FTX in terms of volatility and discount structure as the restructuring progresses to its tail end.

$600 million liquidity: selling pressure or ammunition for replenishment

From the funding path perspective, this approximately $600 million will return to creditors in the form of fiat currency or equivalent assets, initially forming a "passively realized" cash position. A portion of this logically will be used to cash out: for some institutions and high-net-worth investors, since FTX entered bankruptcy restructuring at the end of 2022, a "bad debt" has remained on their balance sheets, and the cash that is recovered is more likely to be prioritized for debt repayment, reducing leverage, and fixing liquidity gaps, corresponding to a reduction in holdings of mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, or at least not adding to positions, thus this force locally strengthens the traditional narrative of "compensation = selling pressure." Especially under the prior market's long-held expectations that FTX liquidation might bring continuous selling, any large cash release related to FTX is easily viewed as a potential window for selling events.

However, compared to the previously planned distribution of about $9.6 billion on March 31, this round's $600 million is noticeably smaller, and the marginal impact on the overall crypto market capitalization and volatility is weakened, more like a tail release of known risks. At the same time, another counteracting force comes from those creditors with a higher risk appetite: for some institutions and retail users, this overdue compensation is viewed as "unexpected wealth," which will likely be reallocated back onto the chain, seeking excess returns on mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, and other high-volatility targets. Under the constraint that creditors from about 45 jurisdictions (including China, Egypt, and Russia) temporarily cannot participate in this round of distribution, the actual group receiving funds is more concentrated in terms of region and compliance attributes, and their risk preference structure will determine the allocation ratio of this medium-scale liquidity between "debt repayment and deleveraging" and "returning to crypto seeking high returns," thus deciding whether this liquidity release will produce moderate selling pressure or limited additional ammunition for repositioning.

45 jurisdictions locked out: regional funds absent

Sunil disclosed on July 13 that this round of approximately $600 million distribution will still exclude about 45 jurisdictions, including China, Egypt, and Russia, meaning related creditors will not receive compensation this round. This indicates that from a global crypto market perspective, the "new funds available in the market" this round is significantly lower than the nominal total of $600 million: part of the assets are accounted for in this round’s distribution pool on paper but are essentially in a "technical freeze" state in compliance-restricted jurisdictions, unable to form immediate selling pressure or be converted into new incremental crypto funds. Such regional blockages are fundamentally the result of FTX's bankruptcy restructuring needing to "connect" under different national regulatory, sanction, and court rules, causing the fund's recovery pace to naturally carry regional disconnects.

For restricted areas like China, Egypt, and Russia, creditor funds continue to be locked, weakening the originally available supply of fiat currency and on-chain funds that these markets could rely on for compensation recovery. Local OTC trading and regional quoting liquidity will show clear misalignment with open jurisdictions like the U.S. and Europe: the latter will welcome a new wave of cash and on-chain funds reallocation after July 31, while the former will lag or even miss this influx. Cross-border compliance and sanction constraints make the time for funds in these regions to return to crypto assets passively extended, forming a "core jurisdictions first release, restricted jurisdictions delayed supplementary issuance" phased rhythm, resulting in globally mainstream assets like BTC and ETH nominally welcoming $600 million in related unfreezing, but in reality, the liquidity that can enter the spot, derivatives, and OTC order books in the short term will present a notably uneven regional structure.

How BTC and ETH will absorb this liquidity

From the perspective of risk preferences, this group of creditors who have experienced the "asset zeroing—slow recovery" full cycle during the FTX incident will find it hard to leverage up on high beta long-tail tokens immediately after receiving their compensation. Most FTX creditors are crypto-native participants, more familiar with mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, which are currently the most liquid and deepest order books in the market. When approximately $600 million of funds become available again, in a still uncertain environment, more funds are likely to complete position repairs, hedging, and portfolio rebalancing on BTC and ETH rather than pushing up less liquid and deep long-tail assets. This means that in terms of asset selection, the nominally similar-scale "unfreezing" provides significantly more marginal support for BTC and ETH than it does for small currency tokens.

From a trading structure perspective, when this $600 million enters the market, it may be split between spot, derivatives, and DeFi yield products. Some funds will go directly into CEX spot, using BTC and ETH as core positions while managing deposits and positions; some will be used as margin to rebuild hedging or spread strategies on perpetual contracts and other derivatives; another portion may flow into DeFi, providing underlying funds for market making, lending, and arbitrage strategies. Since this type of compensation funding leans more towards short-term liquidity management and market-neutral or low-risk arbitrage, its unilateral impact on BTC and ETH spot prices is often weaker than the market sentiment's "positive interpretation," with more direct effects reflected in order book depth, derivatives leverage capacity, and cross CEX/DeFi price convergence. Ultimately, what will truly determine BTC and ETH price elasticity is how much of that $600 million is willing to take on net long risk, rather than just the nominal amount of unfreezing.

Funding rebalancing after the tail end of FTX aftermath

Since entering bankruptcy restructuring at the end of 2022 to now, FTX has transitioned from the planned issuance of about $9.6 billion in compensation on March 31 to the current expected new round of distribution of about $600 million to be implemented on July 31. With nominal scale reductions coupled with the clearance of uncertainties in the later stage of restructuring, it has indeed compressed the probability of triggering systemic selling pressure from a single event on a macro level, but the exclusion of about 45 jurisdictions (including China, Egypt, and Russia) from this round has forced a structurally uneven return of funds presented as "phased + regional locking." For core assets like BTC and ETH, this $600 million is more like a supplement for sentiment and liquidity expectations: on one hand, the market may adjust its judgment on order book depth and leverage capacity due to "more money coming back"; on the other hand, the long- and mid-term price path influence is limited. The key remains whether creditors receiving funds are willing to continue adding to risk assets rather than focusing solely on the nominal distribution amounts. Moving forward, three lines of inquiry need to be closely observed: first, whether the distribution on July 31 will be executed as planned and the actual arrival scale and timing differences; second, which market (CEX, OTC, or on-chain) this funding becomes the dominant channel for absorption, thus determining its elastic contribution to visible liquidity; third, whether restricted jurisdictions will show any policy easing in the future, potentially forming a second batch of concentrated unlocking funds that brings new rebalancing impacts on regional capital costs and risk premiums for crypto assets.

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