Primitive Workshop Minutes: OpenAI Growth Slows, Meta Has Excess Computing Power, AI Frenzy is Returning to Rationality

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3 hours ago

Author: Dovey Wan, Co-founder of Primitive Ventures

Now our internal seminar summaries have been automatically translated into bilingual text, copying and pasting here to spark discussion, if everyone finds it useful, I will share more often in the future.

- Google does not buy GPUs, mainly relying on its own TPUs; however, it remains a major consumer in the upstream manufacturing, storage, materials, and other supply chains.

- Google's advertising business is itself an AI-native product, and tokens can be directly used to enhance advertising recommendation/targeting efficiency.

- Meta has a large gigawatt-level training/computing budget, but if there is still surplus compute available for external rental, it indicates that inference or internal business absorption beyond training is insufficient.

- Llama is at a disadvantage compared to Gemini / OpenAI / Anthropic, recently losing further attention/usage to stronger models.

- Corporate token consumption may be shifting from "casual use" to "effective use": the cancellation of the token leaderboard, strengthened monitoring by the CTO, and tightening of enterprise policies are all signals of governance changes.

- Observations indicate that OpenAI AR growth has noticeably flattened as of April 2026; if Anthropic AR growth also declines, it will significantly impact market expectations for frontier labs and upstream capex.

- The Oracle / Stargate case is used as an analogy: After the Stargate announcement, Oracle surged to about 340, then fell back and dipped below the 20-week moving average, representing a rational correction after retail-driven euphoria.

- BTC is currently influenced more by external forces such as technological momentum, gold correlation, and macro liquidity, diluting the impact of industry-native catalysts.

- The Clarity Act is long-term beneficial for the industry structure, but in the short term may not be a structural catalyst; because the market has been discussing this for a long time, and expectations are already quite mature.

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