The focus of today's decline should be on two aspects. One is the earnings report from Micron. Micron gives me the feeling that it has become like Nvidia, both are at the ceiling of the same track. The earnings report data can influence expectations for this track and even the industry, so if Micron's earnings report continues to be good, then the market will believe the demand for AI servers is still ongoing. This way, tech stocks in the US market, especially Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, might still have a chance for a rebound.

The reason I say that even if the earnings report is good, it will only present opportunities is because of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations intimidating the market. If the decline in the latter half of the US market today is due to risk aversion regarding Micron's earnings report, then the decline in gold, silver, Bitcoin, and US Treasury yields is a risk aversion to the potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. (Of course, the US market was also affected by this.)

The core of risk aversion should be tomorrow's core PCE data. The core PCE is a key focus for the Federal Reserve and an important guide for interest rate adjustments. It goes without saying that the market expects the core PCE to rise, which, combined with Bank of America's pessimistic expectations, has led to today's rise in DXY and other reasons for the decline.

So the current focus should be whether the Federal Reserve truly has expectations for an interest rate hike. Although Bank of America believes there will be a rate hike, from my personal viewpoint, at least under the current circumstances, there will not be a rate hike. Although the transmission of oil prices may be slower, this should be the reason why Waller is reluctant to provide guidance. The foresight under the current situation must be inflation rising and increasing chances of rate hikes. However, once oil prices stabilize, inflation might decline within a few months.

Although I do not know how the rise and fall will unfold next, I believe the process of rising and falling will definitely be closely related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment expectations and inflation data.

Especially for Bitcoin, which has fallen below $60,000, this position seems like a psychological barrier for many investors. Once it falls below this price, investors' pessimistic expectations will rise. Many investors might worry that it will next fall below $50,000 or even lower. However, from my personal view, I have always believed that the price of bitcoin:native is related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and is correlated with the US stock market.

For me personally, what I can do is to buy more the lower it goes. I have currently supplemented some positions at $62,000 and $63,000; the rest will wait until after observing tomorrow's Micron earnings report and core PCE data.

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