What is the CLARITY Act? How far has it come?
The core of the CLARITY Act is to redefine regulation for the U.S. digital asset market. Which assets fall under SEC jurisdiction, which under CFTC jurisdiction, how exchanges, brokerages, custodians, market makers, DeFi, developers, and stablecoin incentives should operate according to what rules - these are the issues the CLARITY Act aims to address.
Therefore, the significance of the CLARITY Act is not just a short-term boost for the crypto market, but primarily indicates that the U.S. is preparing to establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset market.
In July 2025, the House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act with a vote of 294 to 134. This vote count is important because, at that time, in addition to support from Republicans, many Democrats also voted in favor, indicating a strong bipartisan foundation has formed at the House level.
In January 2026, the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced a version related to CFTC's regulation of digital commodities, primarily addressing issues in the digital commodity spot market, trading intermediaries, customer asset segregation, consumer protection, and CFTC authority.
In May 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act with a vote of 15 to 9, and subsequently, the bill was included in the Senate's legislative schedule on June 1.
Currently, the CLARITY Act has reached the full Senate procedure stage. The next issues to resolve include the Senate floor time, the 60-vote threshold, consolidation of the two committee versions, whether the House will accept the Senate's modified version, and finally, the President's signature.
The real challenge lies in the Senate.
Many significant bills in the U.S. Senate require breaking through the 60-vote threshold. The Republicans do not have enough votes on their own, so they need to gain some support from Democratic senators. Although two Democrats have already voted in favor of the Senate Banking Committee, approval from the committee does not guarantee approval from the full Senate.
What the Democrats are currently looking at is how to formulate the ethics provisions, anti-money laundering provisions, DeFi boundaries, stablecoin yields, and consumer protections. (This includes restrictions related to Trump.)
The first layer of resistance is political ethics issues.
The Democrats wish to include provisions that limit government officials and their families from profiting from crypto projects, which corresponds to controversies regarding the Trump family's crypto business. The Republicans prefer to deal with the market structure bill and political ethics issues separately; however, if the Democrats do not secure concessions on this front, it will be difficult for them to confidently provide full support in the Senate.
The second layer of resistance concerns conflicts of interest between the banking industry and the crypto industry.
The banking sector's main concern is stablecoin yields. The current bill tends to prohibit users from simply holding stablecoins to earn interest akin to deposits, while allowing for certain trading rewards, activity incentives, and usage scenario incentives.
The banking industry believes this could turn into a disguised method of accepting deposits, especially harming community banks and the traditional deposit system. The crypto industry hopes to maintain incentives for platforms because they are crucial tools for the expansion of stablecoins, wallet growth, and payment scenario promotion.
The third layer of resistance is DeFi and developer protection.
The crypto industry wishes to exclude true non-custodial protocols, open-source software, front-end tools, and developers from regulation by traditional financial intermediaries. Regulators and some Democratic senators are concerned that overly broad exemptions may leave gaps for money laundering, sanction evasion, illegal financing, and fraud.
The most difficult aspect here is defining the boundaries. Who is merely writing code, who actually controls the protocol, who charges fees, who can change the rules, and who should bear compliance responsibilities - these questions are not easily resolved with simple statements.
The fourth layer of resistance is time.
Prediction websites have lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%, primarily because the available working days in the Senate are decreasing. The bill requires debate by the full Senate, amendments, integration with the Agriculture Committee version, and may also need the House to re-accept the Senate version.
This process is quite tight in an election year. Therefore, the truly important time window is July.
If in July the Senate majority leader provides a clear floor time and several moderate Democratic senators signal support, then the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year will significantly increase.
The ideal path would be to complete full Senate review in July, address differences between the two chambers before the August recess, and then send it to the President.
If there is no scheduling in July, or if the ethical provisions, stablecoin yields, and DeFi exemptions continue to be stuck, then the probability of passing this year will quickly decrease. Because after August, the rhythm of midterm elections begins, and senators return to their home states to campaign, making Senate floor time much scarcer and increasing the difficulty of advancing substantial bills.
So my judgment on the CLARITY Act is that there is still an opportunity to pass it this year, but the probability is not high; I personally estimate it to be around 60% for passing in 2026.
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