The capital market has welcomed a super giant, and commercial space has for the first time established a clear anchor point for public market pricing.

Written by: Mike, Frank, MSX Maitong

If everything goes according to plan, SpaceX will land on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the code SPCX.

If there are no surprises, this will become the largest IPO in the history of the global capital market—according to the currently disclosed issuance arrangements, SpaceX plans to raise approximately $75 billion, with a target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, exceeding the fundraising scale of Saudi Aramco's IPO and immediately placing it among the most expensive listed companies globally upon listing.

However, for the market, the significance of SpaceX goes far beyond "yet another star tech stock listing."

More importantly, the long-imagined and high-threshold field of commercial space finally has a truly meaningful public market pricing anchor point. In recent years, investors have known that the space economy is attractive, that satellite internet, commercial launches, remote sensing data, and defense aerospace all have long-term potential, but it has been difficult to assess what these assets should actually be worth.

Once SpaceX trades at public market prices, all listed commercial space companies will be placed on the same valuation table; those who come closer to SpaceX’s capability frontier, those with real orders and revenue, and those merely capitalizing on the theme will be differentiated by the market.

Therefore, understanding commercial space before and after SpaceX’s listing should not focus on chasing short-term sentiments, but rather on answering three questions: First, why is commercial space worthy of long-term attention? Second, which companies within the sector truly have sustainable business models? Third, after SpaceX’s listing, will it absorb funds or elevate the entire sector?

1. Commercial Space: From Government Projects to Commercial Assets

To understand why commercial space is worthy of long-term attention, it is necessary to comprehend the historic transformation the industry is undergoing.

For decades, entering space has fundamentally been an extension of national capacity. The United States has NASA, the Soviet Union had the Soviet Space Agency, later became the Russian National Space Corporation. Rocket development, satellite launches, and space exploration have essentially been large projects led by governments, with commercial capital participating but struggling to become the dominant force.

The reasons are quite simple: costs are too high, cycles are too long, and failure rates are too high. Traditional satellite launches can easily amount to hundreds of millions of dollars, project construction cycles measured in years, and the return on investment could even span a decade; for most enterprises, this is not a field that can be sustained with ordinary business models, but rather feels like part of national strategic investment.

Because of this, the key to SpaceX changing the industry lies not just in its ability to send rockets to space, but in its reshaping of the cost curve for entering space.

Reusable rockets are at the core of this change. The first stage of the Falcon 9 rocket can autonomously return and land after launch, undergoing refurbishment to execute missions again. This technology transforms launches from one-time consumables into infrastructure that can be amortized repeatedly. The past launch cost of hundreds of millions of dollars has been compressed to the tens of millions level, and it is likely to continue to decline as new-generation systems like Starship mature.

Once the cost curve breaks downward, previously unfeasible business models will begin to take shape.

Satellite internet is the most direct example. In the past, launching thousands of satellites to form a low-orbit constellation was nearly unimaginable economically; but after reusable rockets reduced costs, Starlink could evolve from a grand vision into a subscription-based network charged to global users.

Remote sensing data services follow the same logic. Commercial satellites capturing images of the Earth, tracking crops, monitoring ports, and serving the defense and insurance industries had difficulty achieving large-scale commercialization due to satellite manufacturing and launch costs; but as satellite deployment costs decrease and data processing capabilities improve, space data has the opportunity to transition from "high-end custom services" to "continuously subscribed data products."

Looking longer-term, areas such as space manufacturing, on-orbit services, lunar missions, and space AI data centers are still in the early stages of exploration, but their underlying logic is consistent: only when the marginal cost of entering space continues to decline will new demand be released.

There are many historical precedents for similar scenarios. Breakthroughs in shale gas technology have lowered extraction costs, changing the U.S. energy landscape; smartphones have lowered the mobile computing threshold, leading to an explosion in mobile internet; cloud computing transformed IT infrastructure from one-time capital expenditures to on-demand payments, making SaaS a truly significant industry.

Commercial space is following a similar path. It is not a linear growth of existing markets, but a reopening of new markets after a breakthrough in cost curves.

This is why the global space economy is shifting from niche tech narratives to long-term industrial narratives. Several institutions predict that the global space economy is expected to grow from approximately $630 billion in 2023 to around $1.8 trillion by 2035, with the real drivers of growth being the commercialization inflection point driven by launch costs, satellite manufacturing, data processing, and defense demand.

2. Insights from the SpaceX Prospectus: What is it Doing Now?

The reason SpaceX can garner such high market attention is that it is no longer simply a rocket company.

Based on the currently disclosed information, SpaceX's business structure can be roughly divided into three layers: launch and space infrastructure, Starlink satellite internet, and the AI and computing power business formed after the incorporation of xAI.

The first layer is launch services and space systems.

This is SpaceX's foundational capability and the basis of all other businesses. The Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship, along with the launch systems formed around NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense, and commercial customers, together constitute SpaceX’s engineering barrier. Reusable rockets not only give it lower costs but also allow for a higher frequency of mission execution.

In the aerospace industry, high frequency itself is a barrier. The more launches, the more data, the faster engineering iterations, and the more mature cost controls become. This virtuous cycle is something traditional aerospace companies find difficult to match in the short term.

The second layer is Starlink.

If the rocket business has proven SpaceX's engineering capability, then Starlink demonstrates its commercialization ability. Low Earth orbit satellite internet is essentially a global communication network; the wider the coverage, the more users, and the more mature the terminals, the greater the opportunity for marginal costs to be continuously amortized.

This is also the biggest difference between SpaceX and most commercial space companies: it does not just sell one-off projects but also has recurring subscription income. Starlink targets individuals, businesses, aviation, marine, government, and defense sectors, transforming a capital-intensive space project into a revenue model closer to that of a telecommunications operator or internet infrastructure. For capital markets, this layer of business is also the easiest part of SpaceX's valuation to understand and model.

The third layer is AI and computing power businesses.

This aspect is the most imaginative and controversial part of the current SpaceX valuation. With xAI incorporated into SpaceX, the company’s narrative has evolved from "rockets + satellite internet" to "space infrastructure + AI infrastructure." Whether it's large ground computing clusters or further-out orbital AI data centers, SpaceX is attempting to position itself in the infrastructure competition of the AI era.

However, this layer of business also brings new uncertainties. Based on disclosed data, Starlink already exhibits strong profitability, but the overall SpaceX group still suffers from high capital expenditures and losses from its AI business; in other words, SpaceX is not purely a "currently stable profit-making" company, but rather one that continues to invest cash flow and capital market expectations into the next round of super narratives after proving its core business's commercialization.

This is why its valuation is so complex.

It carries the certainty derived from NASA and defense contracts, the growth driven by Starlink subscription income, and the long-term imagination of AI, Starship, Mars missions, and space data centers. It is neither a traditional aerospace stock nor simply an internet stock; it's a composite giant formed of engineering capabilities, communication networks, government orders, and AI infrastructures.

This is precisely why the market is willing to give it a trillion-dollar valuation and why investors need to remain cautious.

3. Within the Sector: Absorb or Elevate?

After understanding the long-term logic of commercial space, the real question begins: within the commercial space sector, which companies are worthy of long-term attention?

Here, it is necessary to establish a basic judgment, namely that commercial space is not a homogenized sector; it includes platform companies comparable to SpaceX, satellite network companies, data service companies, high-volatility small-cap companies, as well as indirect exposure ETFs or closed-end tools, thus differing in valuation logic and risk-reward ratios.

If one does not differentiate, using the term "space stocks" generically, it is easy to buy the weakest comparable assets at the peak of sentiment; a more reasonable approach is to break down commercial space into five layers:

First Layer: Platform-Based Space Infrastructure

This layer is the closest to SpaceX's comparable public market logic. For instance, SpaceX's rare advantage lies not just in rockets but in the full-stack capability from launches, satellites, ground stations, communication networks, government contracts to future AI infrastructure, and the companies most aligned with this positioning are RKLB.M (Rocket Lab) and FLY.M (Firefly Aerospace).

Rocket Lab is the most typical platform candidate among currently listed space companies. It has a small rocket launching business with the Electron, a satellite and space systems business, and is extending into medium reusable rockets through Neutron. By 2025, Rocket Lab expects to achieve an annual revenue of $602 million, with a year-end backlog of $1.85 billion, leading visibility in commercial space listed companies.

On the surface, Rocket Lab's current valuation may not seem cheap. However, the market is willing to grant it a premium, essentially pricing in an identity leap—not just a "small rocket company" but transforming into a "launch + satellite + defense contracts" driven space infrastructure platform.

One of the largest catalysts in 2026 will be the maiden flight of the medium reusable rocket, Neutron. The latest guidance points to the fourth quarter; if Neutron successfully launches, Rocket Lab will gain the medium lift capability that can be benchmarked against Falcon 9 in certain mission scenarios, moving from the small payload market to larger main tracks; at the same time, Rocket Lab's defense profile is also strengthening. The company has secured the SDA Tranche 3 project, involving 18 satellites valued at about $816 million, and is gradually transitioning from orders to revenue.

In addition to mergers and acquisitions in areas like laser communication, space robotics, and satellite components, Rocket Lab's story has transitioned from "can it launch" to "can it become the second public market space infrastructure platform."

Firefly resembles a second-tier company in the ascendance of platform capabilities. This company plans to IPO at a price of $45 in August 2025, raising approximately $868 million, covering launches, lunar tasks, and defense aspects, and already has clients such as NASA and Lockheed Martin. However, it is still in a phase of high growth, unprofitability, and high volatility.

The advantage of these companies lies in their flexibility, but their disadvantages are also evident; if missions fail, orders are delayed, or market risk preferences decline, their valuations may come under greater stress than mature platforms.

Thus, Rocket Lab is more suited as the core sample of commercial space platform logic, while Firefly leans towards high-flexibility growth samples.

Second Layer: Satellite Networks and Connectivity Services

The second layer focuses on coverage, access, and long-term service revenue.

The most representative company in this layer is ASTS.M (AST SpaceMobile). Its core is not manufacturing satellites, but building a satellite communication network for ordinary mobile phones, commonly referred to in the market as "directly connecting to mobile phones."

If this model succeeds, ASTS holds substantial imaginative potential. It targets global mobile communication blind spots, connectivity for remote areas, disaster communication, and defense communication needs, theoretically enabling collaboration with existing mobile operators rather than completely replacing them. However, ASTS's challenges are also clear: commercial validation is still underway, and the rhythm of satellite deployment, capital consumption, spectrum coordination, and operator cooperation progress will all impact the speed of valuation realization.

SATS.M (EchoStar) is more aligned with a mature satellite operation platform; while growth may not match that of ASTS, its assets and business are more established, making volatility more controllable. For investors, such assets are more suitable as steady observation samples in satellite communication infrastructure rather than merely chasing high flexibility.

Third Layer: Space Data Services

The third layer is the most prone to transitioning from "concept stock" to "operating asset" in the space economy.

The representative company is PL.M (Planet Labs); its logic is clear: it sells continuously updated Earth observation data, with potential use cases in agriculture, insurance, energy, ports, defense, and government governance.

In the fiscal year 2026, Planet Labs achieved revenue of approximately $308 million, with a year-end backlog of $900 million, and it has successfully reached positive Adjusted EBITDA for the first time, which is crucial as it indicates the company is transitioning from "burning cash to tell a story" to "self-sustaining business stage."

In contrast, BKSY.M (BlackSky) leans more towards space intelligence and defense subscription logic, focusing on high-frequency remote sensing, AI analysis, international clients, and government contracts, with its business model more akin to "space intelligence services," supported by defense and sovereignty needs.

SATL.M (Satellogic) is smaller in scale and more flexible, but its certainty is weaker, making it more suitable as a high-flexibility supplementary sample rather than a core asset of the sector.

Fourth Layer: High-Volatility Small Caps

Companies like MNTS.M (Momentus) and SIDU.M (Sidus Space) fall into the fourth layer.

Their common characteristics are small market capitalization, early realization, and high volatility; pricing relies more on events, themes, and technology validation. When themes heat up, these assets often move first as funds only need a small trading volume to push prices; yet once the market shifts from sentiment back to relative valuation, they are the ones most susceptible to reevaluation.

Fifth Layer: SpaceX Reflection Tools

Before SpaceX officially goes public, the market has also seen another type of choice: gaining indirect exposure to SpaceX via ETFs, closed-end funds, or pre-IPO tools.

For example, tools like DXYZ.M, VCX.M, and NASA.M have taken on the scarcity transactions leading up to SpaceX's IPO to varying degrees.

The core logic of DXYZ centers around "SpaceX anticipated transactions + scarce private technology assets." It provides a pathway for public market investors to engage in indirect transactions with private giants.

VCX resembles a basket of unlisted technology assets, containing not just SpaceX but also other AI and pre-IPO technology companies, thus its pricing logic is closer to the overall risk appetite for unlisted technological assets.

NASA.M combines space-themed ETFs with SpaceX exposure tools. It went public at the end of March 2026, quickly attracting funds thanks to the anticipation surrounding SpaceX's IPO, becoming one of the most watched space-themed instruments in the market.

However, these tools also face a very real problem: once SpaceX itself lists, the scarcity of alternatives will weaken.

When SpaceX cannot be directly purchased, the market is willing to pay a premium for alternative exposure; but when SPCX can be traded directly, some funds may flow from alternative tools to the actual entity. This does not mean these tools will necessarily lose value, but their pricing logic will change: from "the only access" to "portfolio allocation."

This is also a significant reason for the potential differentiation that may occur in the space sector post-SpaceX IPO.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that as MSX Q2 Top Picks, all four targets RKLB.M, YSS.M, BKSY.M, and PL.M recorded positive returns, with an average increase of over 100%.

In Conclusion

Of course, the long-term attention on commercial space does not mean that any price is worth pursuing.

SpaceX's current target valuation is approximately $1.75 trillion, corresponding to a nearly hundredfold price-to-sales ratio for 2025 revenue. This valuation means that the market has already incorporated growth expectations for many years ahead, including Starlink expansion, Starship maturation, AI computing business explosions, and the commercialization of future space infrastructure.

If post-IPO performance growth falls short of expectations, or Starlink user growth slows down, or AI business capital expenditures continue to expand, valuation adjustments could be severe.

The high valuation itself is one of SpaceX's biggest risks.

However, the true significance of the SpaceX IPO lies in its ability to clarify for the market who the core assets are, who the comparable assets are, and who the emotional assets are.

For investors, the most noteworthy aspect of commercial space long-term is not the term "space" itself, but rather which companies can convert imagination into orders, turn orders into revenue, and convert revenue into cash flow after the cost curves decline.

Going forward, the true dividing line in the commercial space sector will no longer be about how grand the story is told, but rather about who can prove what they are based on.

The answer will be revealed soon.