What to know : Bitcoin hovered around $77,700 after a brief drop below $77,000, with derivatives data suggesting the move was a leverage flush rather than the start of a deeper downturn. Analysts say the $75,000 to $77,000 range remains a key support zone, as liquidations were split between longs and shorts and did not reflect a one-sided capitulation. Rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions, particularly around U.S.-Iran relations and oil prices, are seen as the main headwinds for bitcoin, which may stay range-bound unless yields ease.
Bitcoin traded near $77,733 by midday Hong Kong time, according to CoinDesk data, little changed over the past 24 hours, after sliding as low as $76,685 and failing to hold above $78,000 during U.S. trading hours.
Derivatives positioning suggested the recent selloff may have been more of a leverage flush than the start of a broader market breakdown. Open interest, a measure of outstanding leveraged futures positions, held relatively steady while funding rates stayed low or negative, a sign that traders were not aggressively piling into bullish bets before the drop.
"There was no massive accumulation of leveraged longs prior to this, meaning most of those liquidated in this drop were leveraged funds attempting short-term bottom-fishing. Second, this signals that we are not in the middle of a structural trend reversal downward. The temporary bottom of $75,000–$77,000 remains well-defined," Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, told CoinDesk
The bigger problem, he said, is macro: investors are de-risking as long-term yields rise, oil and inflation risks remain in focus, and there is “currently no compelling reason for new capital to enter the market.”
CoinGlass data showed $200 million in crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours, split almost evenly between long and short positions, suggesting the move was less a one-sided capitulation than a volatile market whipping both directions.
Sun pointed to the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield, which recently pushed above 5%, as the more important pressure point. Higher long-term yields tend to weigh on speculative assets by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin while tightening broader financial conditions.
The next catalyst may come from geopolitics.
Sun said a meaningful de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could cool oil prices and inflation expectations, easing pressure on yields and giving bitcoin room to rebound.
But if yields remain elevated and geopolitical risks persist, bitcoin may stay stuck in what he described as a defensive, range-bound market, with the $75,000 to $77,000 zone serving as the key near-term support level.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
