Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macroeconomic Market
U.S. stocks declined first last Friday, with the Dow Jones index dropping 1.07%, the Nasdaq Composite index plummeting 1.54%, and the S&P 500 index falling 1.24% to close at 7,408.50 points. This Monday, the downtrend continued, with U.S. stock futures for the three major indices falling over 0.5% again.
Due to escalating inflation concerns, a global bond market selling spree has been triggered, with U.S. long-term Treasury yields hitting a three-year high. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 5.159%, the highest level since October 2023; the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields reached 4.63% and 4.10%, respectively, a new high since February 2025. Bond traders generally view a 5% yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds as a "dividing line," believing this level would attract bargain hunters. Gunther Diggler, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, stated: “There is no anchoring point above 5%.” He suggested clients pay attention to the trading range of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Japan's 10-year government bond yield increased to 2.75%, surpassing the 2.3% dividend yield of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Index for the first time since 2007; the 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a new high since 1999. Naka Matsuzawa, a strategist at Nomura Securities, indicated that the current Japanese bond sell-off differs from previous market fluctuations, triggered by external pressures such as rising oil prices, changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and political risks in the UK. Notably, the rise in inflation expectations has pushed Japan’s 10-year breakeven inflation rate (BEI) to 2.15%, adding persistent upward pressure to yields.
Spot gold fell below the $4,500 mark for the first time since the end of March, plummeting 1.2% to $4,480. Although escalating conflicts in the Middle East have caused rising energy costs and a global bond market sell-off, applying short-term pressure on gold prices, Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, predicting gold prices will rise to $5,400 per ounce by the end of the year. UBS and ANZ Bank predict gold prices will reach $5,600 and $6,000, respectively.
Asian-Pacific stock markets opened under pressure, with A-shares and the markets of Japan and South Korea generally declining. The South Korean KOSPI index once plunged 4.7% during the session but rebounded strongly, driven by major chip stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, closing up 0.31%. Samsung Electronics rose 4.67%, while SK Hynix increased by 1.12%.
AI and the Stock Market
With the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing above 5%, AI and tech stocks are facing heavy pressure from a "high interest rate wall." Societe Generale has warned that the AI sector has entered a "danger zone." Long-term high interest rates are having a precise impact on AI capital expenditure, with Intel plummeting over 6% last Friday, AMD dropping 5.7%, and Micron Technology falling 6.6%, with even the "AI leader" NVIDIA unable to escape a decline of 4.4%. Cerebras Systems, which just went public last week with a 68% increase, directly retraced by 10%. Investors are closely monitoring the NVIDIA earnings report this week for further impacts on AI stocks.
Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin's recent performance has been weak, falling below the $77,000 level, with downward targets possibly pointing to $76,500 or even $75,000, notably the $75,000 level is historically a significant support point. If the daily close returns above $78,000, there is still hope for a technical rebound.
Data shows that the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures exceeds 0.7, indicating that BTC's volatility may be further amplified when the Nasdaq falls sharply. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF fund flows have turned to a net outflow, with a net outflow of $1.039 billion last week, ending a previous six-week net inflow trend.
Moreover, due to weekend selling behavior, a gap on the CME around $79,000 remains unfilled, located in a significant resistance area, and the market may focus on whether it will be filled.
Bearish Views
The macro high interest rate environment has driven up the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies, coupled with short-term speculators selling on rallies and continuous outflows from ETFs, the technical pattern and momentum of Bitcoin are rapidly deteriorating.
Gino Matos: After Bitcoin fell below $77,700, $76,500 will be the first target, followed by the picking point at $75,000, and if it continues to deteriorate, it will head straight for the macro de-leveraging range of $73,000 to $74,000.
10x Research: Bitcoin is testing the 30-day moving average, and once confirmed to break below it, it will indicate deteriorating momentum; current market sentiment has dropped from 87% to 45%.
Daan Crypto Trades: If Bitcoin's price breaks below the bull market support band of $75,000 to $76,000, a liquidity vacuum may quickly drive the price down to $71,000.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler: $82,000 is a strong selling pressure zone, the STH-SOPR indicator shows that short-term holders are using the rebound to take profits and any rebound before breaking the 200-day moving average is a selling opportunity.
Analyst Ali: Traders' average realized profit margin has risen to 17%, with signs of "overheating" in the market, potential profit-taking pressure has surged, similar to the phase top signals flashing in March 2022.
EliZ: Buying volume has lost momentum, Binance's order book is heavily weighted with sell orders, the 12-hour chart indicates that a trend reversal may occur, and $75,000 is becoming a massive price magnet.
Doctor Profit: Significantly increased short positions near $78,000, currently short positions account for 50% of total positions, firmly bearish on future market.
Man of Bitcoin: The rebound at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is weak; if it breaks below $74,917, it will trigger a deeper correction.
Bullish Views
The current market's drastic washout is mainly to clean out highly leveraged long positions and fill the CME gap; on-chain supply is actually tightening, and a bottom range has already emerged.
Binance Research: Four major on-chain signals indicate that Bitcoin's supply is tightening, the selling pressure has basically exhausted, and the value ratio of long and short-term holders is deep in historical bottoms, suggesting that the cycle bottom has been reached.
Killa: The gap near $79,000 on the CME has an 85% chance of being filled, and positions are currently being built to hedge long positions in anticipation of this rebound.
Tryrex: The market is fluctuating and hesitant, and the current correction looks more like a liquidity raid around $78,000, which will then reverse and liquidate early short positions.
Key Data (as of May 18 at 14:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $1.039 billion last week, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflow
Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $255 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA leading at a net outflow of $185 million
SOL ETF: Net inflow of $58.118 million last week
XRP ETF: Net inflow of $60.495 million last week
Fear and Greed Index: 28 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: TRAC, BTC, XRP, ETH, IRYS
Sector gains and losses: The cryptocurrency market is generally down, with only DeFi and SocialFi sectors relatively resilient
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 101,106 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $576 million, including $189 million for BTC, $168 million for ETH, and $12.71 million for XRP.
Today's Outlook
Binance contracts will launch multiple U-denominated TradFi perpetual contracts on May 18
Coinbase will launch four AI infrastructure stock perpetual contracts on May 18
YZY (YZY) will unlock approximately 20.83 million tokens on May 18, valued at about $6.2 million
Pyth Network (PYTH) will unlock 1.87 billion tokens on May 19, valued at approximately $100 million
Google I/O 2026 Developer Conference will be held on May 19 to 20, 2026
Today's top gainers among the top 100 coins by market capitalization: DeXe up 7.10%, Kite up 6.00%, Hyperliquid up 5.50%, Venice Token up 4.70%, Humanity up 2.70%.
Hot News
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