Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

At a White House press conference, Trump said with a sorrowful expression, "You know, unfortunately, the whole world has become a kind of casino to some extent."

When he made this statement, his son Donald Trump Jr. was concurrently serving as an advisor to the two largest prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, one for pay and the other as an investor and board member.

Forty-eight hours later, Trump did a complete turnaround and expressed support for prediction markets.

This is probably the most exciting piece of political performance art in 2026.

In 48 hours, he changed his answer

The starting point of the story is a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier.

Earlier this year, this soldier participated in the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro. During the operation, he placed bets on Polymarket, wagering that Maduro would step down before the end of the month and that the U.S. would take military action against Venezuela. In total, 13 bets were made, with approximately $33,000 in principal, ultimately resulting in profits exceeding $400,000.

Afterwards, he attempted to delete his account and obscure the flow of funds through cryptocurrency. It didn’t work. Federal prosecutors arrested him for abusive use of confidential government information, telecom fraud, and commodity fraud.

Reporters took this case to ask Trump: What do you think about prediction markets?

Trump's first answer was, "I’ve never really been a big fan of this industry." He said that gambling has turned the whole world into a casino, his tone carrying a hint of moral concern.

Forty-eight hours later, he changed his mind.

Trump reversed his position, claiming that "very smart" people he knows believe the industry is worth supporting, stating that the U.S. should not fall behind in this area.

Two answers, from the same person, within less than two days.

The person who convinced him is his son

The observers generally attribute the credit for Trump's change to his son Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket and has long been an advocate for prediction markets, especially in election reporting. He believes that prediction markets reflect election outcomes more accurately than traditional media.

However, his interests go beyond just being an "advisor." His advisor position at Kalshi is paid, and he has also injected "tens of millions of dollars" into Polymarket through his venture capital company, 1789 Capital, and joined Polymarket's advisory board.

It’s already peculiar for one person to hold money from two competitors. What’s even more extraordinary is that his father is the highest executive of the U.S. federal government, and the federal agency CFTC is responsible for regulating this industry.

Donald Trump's spokesperson stated that he "will not interact with the federal government on behalf of any company."

This reassurance is about as comforting as a referee declaring he won’t influence a judgment on behalf of a team.

Regulatory bodies are shrinking

To understand this story, another clue is needed.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), responsible for regulating prediction markets, has laid off 24% of its staff since Trump returned to the White House, bringing the total number of employees to its lowest point in 15 years.

At the same time, Trump’s social media company announced plans to launch its own prediction platform, while Donald Trump Jr. is a paid advisor for Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket.

On one side, family is counting money in the industry, while on the other side, the agency responsible for regulating this industry is cutting staff. CFTC Chairman Selig explained that artificial intelligence is filling the labor gap, saying, "Our operational efficiency is higher than ever."

Former CFTC officials disagree with this statement, expressing concerns that regulatory capacity has declined: "Some layoffs don’t make sense. There will be some cases left unresolved; they can’t investigate as many cases as they could when fully staffed."

The Maduro case is just the tip of the iceberg. Researchers have identified multiple suspected insider trading cases, including precise betting on oil futures before the U.S. announced significant policy changes toward Iran.

Whose achievement is it that the world has become a casino?

Let’s return to Trump's statement: "Unfortunately, the whole world has become a kind of casino."

When he said this, he probably forgot that he built a real casino empire in the 1980s, which later closed down due to a series of bankruptcies. He also probably forgot that the Memecoin he issued essentially serves as casino chips.

Now, the monthly trading volume in prediction markets has surged from about $1.2 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion in January 2026, with over 800,000 active wallets each month.

This casino is doing very well.

And that soldier, who was arrested, is just an ordinary player who won $400,000 in this casino using confidential information. He violated the law. But he merely did something that anyone close to power might try, making it too obvious.

As one analyst said: How many of Trump’s direct subordinates have tried the same thing? No one knows. Has the Justice Department investigated? We haven't heard any news.

Trump, 48 hours later, changed his mind, claiming that "very smart" people he knows support prediction markets.

We all know who he was talking about.