Trump said he does not like geopolitical gambling, feeling that the world has "turned into a casino." But the reality is a bit awkward: a U.S. soldier reportedly bet on the capture of Maduro in advance and made $400,000 before being arrested; during the conflict with Iran, there were several massive trades in the futures market before he announced a policy shift. The White House said there was "no evidence."

Source: Jin Ten Data

U.S. President Trump said on Thursday that he is concerned about the growing trend of gambling on geopolitical events, stating that the world "has become a bit like a casino."

When asked about a U.S. Special Forces soldier being arrested for allegedly betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, Trump said he is not familiar with the specifics and would look into it.

U.S. ABC News cited informed sources reporting that federal authorities arrested a Special Forces soldier involved in the capture of Maduro on Thursday, who allegedly made over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's ouster.

Sources stated that federal investigators believe this commando placed a bet of over $33,000 on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before Trump announced Maduro's capture in January. This series of bets earned over $409,000 and immediately triggered an internal review by the prediction market, leading to a months-long insider trading investigation.

"It's like Pete Rose betting on his own team," Trump said, referring to the deceased baseball player who was banned from Major League play for gambling.

When pressed whether he is concerned about gambling activities related to the conflict in Iran, Trump stated that it's a global issue.

"Well, I think the whole world, unfortunately, has become a bit like a casino," Trump said, adding that such gambling "is happening all over the world, and people are engaging in these gambling activities everywhere."

"Right now, I am not happy about it," he concluded.

Trump's Policy Shift on Iran Highlights Insider Trading Threat in Washington

In the oil market, volatility has recently surged to levels not seen since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global commodity and stock markets have reacted sharply to every twist in the conflict in Iran: strikes, pauses, "threats to obliterate a civilization," ceasefire; then agreements, no agreements, and the prospects of reaching agreements again...

A recurring theme in the recent market volatility has been those timely trades that have made traders a fortune. Some of these trades, particularly in the oil market, seem to follow a pattern: perfectly timed, just before Trump issues a statement or social media post.

Senator Elizabeth Warren mentioned several trades from April 7 in a letter to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requesting an investigation. On that day, around 3:45 p.m. New York time, traders executed trades of over 15 million barrels of Brent crude oil and WTI futures contracts in just two minutes, valued at about $1.7 billion. In the same time frame, similar surges occurred in U.S. and European stock index futures trading.

About three hours later, Trump posted on social media that he would announce a two-week ceasefire. When the market reopened, WTI crude oil prices fell more than 15% in morning trading, while the stock market rose over 2.5%. In theory, if an investor shorted $1 million worth of crude oil futures during the trading surge that afternoon, they could realize nearly $170,000 in profit after Trump announced the ceasefire that evening.

Earlier, on March 23, just 16 minutes before Trump posted on social media that the U.S. would delay strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure by five days, billions of dollars worth of crude oil and stock index futures had changed hands. According to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg, contracts traded in the two minutes starting at 6:49 a.m. New York time represented at least 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI crude oil.

Within the same time frame, about 6,000 U.S. stock index futures contracts changed hands, valued at over $2 billion. After Trump's post was published at 7:05 a.m., Brent crude dropped about 15%, while the U.S. stock market rose nearly 4% from the day's low to the day's high.

Democratic lawmakers and other critics have noted that some of the recent profitable trades seem "incredibly perfect," difficult to explain by skill or luck alone. Under increasing political pressure, the CFTC has launched an investigation into signs of insider trading.

In a recent episode, Congressman Ritchie Torres on Wednesday urged the CFTC to broaden its investigation to include "suspicious" trades seen in oil futures prior to Trump's announcement to extend the ceasefire this week.

He wrote: "This incident is not an isolated case; rather, it is part of a broader and troubling pattern." The CFTC previously declined to comment on the investigation and did not respond to related questions on Thursday.

There is currently no evidence of White House staff profiting from insider trading. However, officials recently sent an email to all staff warning them against trading on confidential information. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle stated in a statement on Thursday:

“All federal employees are bound by government ethical standards, which prohibit the use of non-public information for economic benefit. However, to suggest that government officials engage in such activities without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting. The CFTC will always fulfill its responsibilities to monitor for fraud, manipulation, and illegal activities on a daily basis.”

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which operate major crude oil futures trading platforms, declined to comment.

To be fair, concerns about government information potentially being used for insider trading have arisen in previous administrations, including during Trump's first term.

In 2019, the CFTC conducted an investigation into whether government leaks contributed to massive profits in the futures market after a controversial Vanity Fair article suggested investors profited billions trading before market-moving press releases. That investigation ultimately did not lead to enforcement actions.

Aitan Goelman, a former CFTC Enforcement Division Director and now a partner at Zuckerman Spaeder law firm, stated that derivatives regulators possess ample investigative authority. However, he also pointed out that punishing those found to have engaged in suspicious trading is more complicated.

He said that derivative regulations make it "more complex than in the securities realm."

The CFTC's primary authority to root out insider trading based on government information sources is also relatively new. Due to concerns that futures traders might profit from insider information, lawmakers included a provision known as the "Eddie Murphy rule" in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.

This regulation made it illegal for commodity market investors to engage in the kind of schemes portrayed in the famous 1980s movie Trading Places. In that film, characters played by Murphy and Dan Aykroyd made millions betting on orange juice futures using leaked government crop reports.

As the CFTC delves deeper into the investigation and online discussions about whether certain trades were driven by insider information intensify, markets beyond crude oil continue to fluctuate.

Even before the conflict with Iran broke out, whispers emerged in Washington questioning whether people were betting using insider information about Trump's or his administration's next moves. Trades conducted before Trump announced a "Day of Liberation" tariff suspension on April 2025, and betting on the prediction market regarding the ousting of Venezuelan leader Maduro, have sparked speculation.

Bets on world events are sharply expanding on prediction markets. On the Polymarket platform, the geopolitical category is rapidly becoming one of the platform's most popular categories. According to data compiled by users on Dune Analytics, betting amounts in that category reached a record $560 million in the week ending April 6, while the figure was about $100 million in the first week of the year.

Unlike the crowded crude oil futures market, the liquidity in prediction markets may be relatively sparse — making it easier to influence the market. This was fully exemplified in January when a single trader on Polymarket made nearly $400,000 betting on Maduro's arrest, with some of the largest bets placed just before Trump publicly announced the military operation.

The Maduro event also affected other geopolitical bets. At that time, bets on Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei being ousted before this summer surged sharply. He passed away within hours of the conflict's outbreak.

In March, Polymarket announced "strengthened market integrity rules" that explicitly prohibit three types of insider trading: trading on stolen confidential information, illegal disclosure of information, and betting by those capable of affecting event outcomes. The company also stated that all forms of fraud and market manipulation are prohibited.

Integrity issues concerning prediction markets are not limited to conflict betting. Kalshi Company on Wednesday stated it has suspended and fined three congressional candidates for "political insider trading" related to their campaign-related bets. The company did not comment further on Thursday. Kalshi listed insider trading prohibitions on its website and stated in March that it was taking additional measures to prevent such activities.

More bets on political and global events are forthcoming. Along with that, more questions arise about how the bettors behind those bets managed to guess correctly.