Written by: Sean Stein Smith, Forbes

Translated by: Saoirse, Foresight News

Currently, the crypto industry is already preoccupied with public opinion storms, geopolitical conflicts, and financial turmoil, and Google's latest research has brought new challenges to this field: the timeline for the practical realization of quantum computing is continuously being accelerated.

For years, the potential threats posed by quantum computing have been discussed, debated, and researched within the industry, and blockchain developers have long begun working on quantum-resistant encryption technologies. However, what truly stirs the investment market is the speed of technological iteration. Google's Quantum AI team pointed out that a quantum computer needs fewer than 500,000 qubits to crack the elliptic curve encryption algorithm used by Bitcoin - a method that has always been recognized as having the highest security. Leaving aside the technical parameters of qubits, the key fact is that the latest estimates of the required number of qubits are far lower than previous expectations, which brings the critical point of life and death for the blockchain ecosystem forward to 2029.

In addition to Bitcoin potentially exposing security flaws in just 9 minutes, another report highlighted the risks faced by Ethereum: the network has up to 5 potential attack vectors, and if exploited, it will endanger approximately $100 billion in DeFi and tokenized assets.

It should be made clear that the quantum computers mentioned in these research reports have not yet actually emerged and remain at the theoretical level. However, related discussions have led to tokens and protocols with quantum-resistant features achieving double-digit increases. Additionally, tokens viewed as "quantum-compatible," utilizing more advanced protocols such as zero-knowledge proofs, have also benefited from this wave of attention.

Setting aside speculative emotions and panic-driven surges, as quantum technology continues to penetrate broader financial markets, investors should recognize some key experiences and insights.

Quantum risk is no longer just a theoretical concern, which is actually a good thing

Discussions around quantum computing and cryptocurrencies have shifted from abstract risks to quantifiable real threats. New research shows that quantum systems may only need between 10,000 to 26,000 qubits to break currently widely used cryptographic standards, a significant reduction from previous estimates in the millions. More importantly, attack scenarios are no longer hypothetical. Researchers have outlined some attack methods: private keys can be extracted from ongoing transactions within minutes, and funds can be transferred even before transaction confirmations.

This reality has redefined the core issues for investors, audit agencies, and policymakers: the risk is no longer just whether "quantum computers will appear," but whether existing systems can migrate quickly enough to post-quantum encryption systems. Estimates suggest that "quantum nodes" could arrive as early as 2029, leaving the industry with a time window for response shorter than most financial infrastructure upgrade cycles.

From a pragmatic perspective, the market is facing a typical accounting and valuation dilemma: it needs to recognize and assess potential liabilities before they convert into actual losses.

The market is already pricing in the quantum transition

Despite the underlying threats gradually becoming apparent, market behavior indicates that participants are not waiting for clarity to emerge. Tokens and projects focusing on quantum resistance have seen increases approaching 50%, indicating that capital is proactively positioning itself in defensive infrastructure and related projects.

This is a common pattern in financial markets: investors often factor in structural risks into prices before they materially manifest. In the current context, this means capital will flow towards quantum-resistant encryption technologies, blockchain protocols that have completed upgrades, and stakeholders focused on security construction in this field.

Meanwhile, although related warnings have become increasingly clear, the prices of mainstream crypto assets remain relatively stable. This reflects a consensus forming in the market: this transformation will be completed through upgrades at the protocol level, rather than the industry facing extinction.

For accounting and auditing practitioners, this introduces a new dimension to valuation analysis. Digital assets must not only contend with market volatility and regulatory changes, but also bear the risks of technological obsolescence—these risks must be disclosed, modeled, and stress-tested.

The crypto industry is unlikely to disappear, but the underlying architecture will undoubtedly be reconstructed

Despite the increasingly urgent warnings, the overall conclusion of various studies and industry commentary is very clear: quantum computing will not disrupt blockchain, but it will force a reconstruction of its security system. Recent analyses have pointed out multiple attack vectors, including rapid exploitation of vulnerabilities at the transaction layer and slow attacks on dormant wallets with exposed keys.

At the same time, ongoing research in the post-quantum encryption field indicates that feasible countermeasures already exist, though the degree of widespread application remains uneven.

Importantly, any observer, investor, or policy advocate can demonstrate that blockchain systems are not static. Protocol upgrades, hard forks, and migrations of cryptographic algorithms have long been part of the ecological operational mechanism. Compared to traditional financial infrastructures, this adaptability itself is a structural advantage.

Quantum computing does not bring a fatal flaw, but rather a forced opportunity for advancement. The ultimate winners will not be those attempting to evade risks, but those who drive transformation, embedding quantum-resistant capabilities into governance, information disclosure, and technical design before threats fully materialize.