Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: A Textbook "Intra-day Reversal"

On Thursday, Wall Street staged the most thrilling day of 2026.

Before the market opened, everyone was digesting Trump’s nationwide televised address from the previous evening. "In the next two to three weeks, we will bomb them back to the Stone Age." This phrase hit like a deep-sea bomb, completely shattering the optimism built up over the first three days of the week. At one point, the Dow plunged by 668 points, the S&P 500 fell by as much as 1.5%, and the Nasdaq dropped a staggering 2.2%.

The turning point came in the afternoon. Iranian state media suddenly released news: Tehran is collaborating with Oman to develop a "monitoring" agreement for ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. This unassuming diplomatic signal acted like a shot in the arm, prompting bears to cover their positions, and the three major indices staged a breathtaking V-shaped rebound in the last two hours.

At the close: the Dow edged down 61 points (-0.13%) to 46,504.67 points, the S&P 500 barely rose 0.11% to 6,582.69 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.18% to 21,879.18 points. The Russell 2000 rose by 0.70% under the support of a continued decline in bond yields.

From a nearly 700-point drop to just a 61-point decline, the Dow covered a six-day trading range in six hours.

By sector, there was a stark divide. Energy stocks surged amid skyrocketing oil prices, with APA rising 4.3%, and ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy, ExxonMobil, and Chevron all gaining around 3%. Real estate and utilities also strengthened alongside the decline in bond yields. However, consumer stocks were trampled; the uncertainty of war and soaring oil prices were double hits to consumer confidence. Cruise stocks plummeted, and airline stocks faced pressure; these were industries that suffered with every $10 increase in oil prices.

On an individual stock level, two extreme stories defined the day:

Tesla crashed 5.43% to $360.56, marking the largest single-day decline of 2026. The trigger was the first-quarter delivery data—358,000 units, which not only fell below Wall Street's expectation of 365,000 units but was also unsettling as Tesla produced 50,000 units that could not be sold. Production was 408,000 units, deliveries were 358,000 units, resulting in an inventory gap of over 50,000 units. This is not a capacity issue; it is a demand issue. Tesla's stock has already dropped 20% this year, and Musk's "AI story" is increasingly difficult to conceal the weakness in the automotive business.

Globalstar skyrocketed 13% to $75.24, reaching an 18-year high. The Financial Times reported that Amazon is in talks to acquire this satellite communication company, valued at around $9 billion. Bezos aims to use Globalstar’s spectrum assets and on-orbit satellites to accelerate the Amazon Leo project against Musk's Starlink. The complexity lies in the fact that Apple holds a 20% stake in Globalstar, and this tripartite negotiation is far from settled.

The VIX closed at 23.87, down 2.73%, and in the midst of such a geopolitical storm, the fear index instead retreated, indicating that the market is "desensitizing." The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond slightly decreased to 4.313%.

It is worth mentioning that despite the tumult on Thursday, U.S. stocks managed to close higher across the board this week. The S&P 500 rose 3.4% for the week, the Nasdaq gained 4.4%, and the Dow increased by 3%. This marks the first weekly increase since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war.

On Friday, Good Friday, the U.S. stock market will be closed, but the March non-farm employment report will be released as usual in the morning. Wall Street expects an addition of 57,000 jobs, after a shocking -92,000 last month. This data will land in a non-tradable vacuum, leaving investors to grapple with its results until Monday's opening.

Oil Prices: $111, Four-Year High

On Thursday, the crude oil market was the real protagonist.

WTI crude soared by 11.41%, closing at $111.54 per barrel, the highest level since June 2022. Brent crude rose 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel, with WTI hitting $113 at one point during the day.

Trump’s remark about "bombing back to the Stone Age" is not rhetoric; it is the rocket booster for oil prices. Just the day before, WTI was below $100. It surged over $11 within 24 hours, a volatility last seen at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The core contradiction is very clear: Trump says "it will end soon," while at the same time stating "it will last for two or three more weeks." The market only hears the latter. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked, with nearly 20% of global oil transportation passing through this waterway. Iran’s "monitoring agreement" with Oman has provided the market a brief respite, but no one dares to bet on when this lifeline will truly become unobstructed again.

Analysts’ consensus is shifting toward "higher for longer." Even if the war ends tomorrow, a drop in gasoline prices will take several weeks or even months, and the inflation shock has already become embedded in the economy’s capillaries. OPEC+ will meet on April 5 to discuss whether to relax production cuts; some member countries advocate increasing production to stabilize prices above $100, while others are worried about potential oversupply after the war.

One number worth remembering: U.S. crude oil production in 2026 is expected to average 13.6 million barrels per day, setting a record high. The U.S. does not lack oil; it lacks the safety of global transport corridors.

Gold: Safe-Haven Luster Temporarily Dimmed

Gold has exhibited a counter-intuitive market trend.

In the days of skyrocketing oil prices and sharply rising geopolitical risks, gold fell instead of rising. The gold price retreated from the previous day’s $4,796 per ounce, closing around $4,690 per ounce, a decline of about 2.2%.

The reason is not complex: the dollar index strengthened as safe-haven funds poured in, and the strong dollar suppressed gold priced in dollars. At the same time, the surge in oil prices raised expectations for interest rate hikes, and the rise in real rates created additional pressure on gold.

But looking at the longer time frame, gold still stands near historical highs. The historical high of $5,595 reached in January 2026 has corrected nearly $1,000, yet gold’s structural bull market logic—central bank gold purchases, geopolitical premiums, and de-dollarization—remains intact. The World Gold Council expects emerging market central banks to purchase about 850 tons of gold in 2026, and the Chinese central bank has been net buying for 15 consecutive months.

Gold has temporarily lost to the dollar in the short term but remains the ultimate winner in the long-term narrative of this geopolitical chess game.

Cryptocurrency: Drift Robbed of $286 Million, Fear Index Plummets

On Thursday, the biggest news in the crypto market was not Bitcoin, but the largest perpetual contract DEX in the Solana ecosystem, Drift Protocol, which was raided by hackers for $286 million.

According to analysis by Elliptic, the method of attack closely matched previous patterns used by North Korean hacking groups (DPRK): the attackers created wallets eight days before the incident and conducted small test transfers, then used the stolen admin keys to gain "god mode" access, creating a false collateral market and draining the liquidity pool in one go. The stolen funds were quickly exchanged for USDC through the Jupiter aggregator and then transferred to Ethereum via the CCTP cross-chain bridge. The entire process lasted several hours during the U.S. trading session, with no one intercepting.

This is the largest DeFi security incident of 2026 to date and the second-largest hack in the Solana ecosystem, following the 2022 Wormhole incident ($326 million). DRIFT token plummeted 25%. Solana (SOL) fell to a five-week low of $78.30.

Back to the market. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin fell about 2.5% to around $66,835, hitting a low of $65,890 during trading. Ethereum declined 4.28% to $2,046, with the ETH/BTC ratio dropping to a 15-month low of 0.0308.

The total global crypto market capitalization shrank to $2.37 trillion, evaporating about 4% in 24 hours. Bitcoin’s market share rose to 56.1%, as funds concentrated in Bitcoin amid panic, a classic "flight to quality" pattern.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to the 8-12 range (extreme fear), remaining in the extreme panic area below 25 for 46 consecutive days, the longest fear cycle since the FTX collapse in 2022.

However, historical data provides a cold comfort: since the index's inception in 2018, each time it falls below 15 in extreme fear readings, the subsequent 90-day median return for Bitcoin has been +38.4%. Of course, history is not a guarantee. During the 2022 Terra/LUNA collapse period, the 90-day return rate following extreme fear was only 4%.

One noteworthy signal: Japanese listed company Metaplanet bought 5,075 BTC for $405 million on April 2, bringing its total holdings to 40,177 BTC, becoming the third-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally (behind Strategy and Marathon Digital). While the fear index was at 12, someone was bottom-fishing.

Today’s Summary: A Week Dominated by Oil Prices

On April 3, the U.S.-Iran war entered its sixth week, with Trump refusing to provide a clear exit timeline. Oil has become the pricing anchor for all assets:

U.S. Stocks: The Dow edged down 61 points (-0.13%), but rose 3% for the week—markets have found a numb balance amid the panic of war.

Oil Prices: WTI surged 11.41% to $111.54 per barrel, hitting a four-year high. The Strait of Hormuz remains the throat of the global economy.

Gold: Gold prices declined to about $4,690 per ounce, as the strong dollar temporarily suppressed safe-haven demand.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin fell to $66,835, and the fear index dropped to rock bottom. Drift was hacked for $286 million, further undermined confidence in the Solana ecosystem.

The market is now focused on one question: today's non-farm data, will it confirm recession, or provide a breathing space?

Wall Street expects an addition of 57,000 jobs in March. If the data far exceeds expectations, there may be a rebound at Monday's opening, as it would prove that the labor market has not yet been crushed by the war and oil prices. If the data is negative again, following February's -92,000, then "stagflation" will move from analyst papers into traders' nightmares.

But at least this week, one thing has become very clear: global capital is repricing everything around the $111 oil price. From Tesla's sales to Drift's security breaches, from gold's dollar dilemma to Bitcoin's extreme fear, all stories ultimately point to the narrow waterway of the Strait of Hormuz.