Just when you thought the plunge of Bitcoin had come to a pause, the "smart money" in the options market has quietly fortified its defenses in a deeper abyss. While most retail investors are still focused on whether the $70,000 mark can be reclaimed, professional traders have already shifted their attention downwards, digging trenches in the range of $58,000 to $62,000.
This is no longer a simple battle between bulls and bears, but a defensive war for survival.
1. The "Air Raid Alarm" in the Options Market: Who is Buying Fear?
If you think the crypto market is only about blind chasing of prices, the options data at the end of February will splash a cold bucket of water on you. According to the latest data from the options trading platform Deribit, the market is undergoing an unprecedented "defensive deployment."
1. The "Arms Race" of Put Options
● The most striking are not the unattainable $100,000 call options, but those put options priced at or even below the cost line.
● Data shows that open interest in put options with strike prices of $58,000, $60,000, and $62,000 has recently seen a significant increase. This means that a large number of traders are actively buying "insurance" to prevent their positions from being wiped out if prices fall below these critical levels.
2. The $400 Million "Deep Minefield"
● This is not an isolated little skirmish. Another disturbing data dimension: In the options contracts expiring on February 27, the nominal size of put options with a strike price of $40,000 has accumulated about $490 million.
● Although there is still some distance from the current price of $67,000, such a large-scale "deep out-of-the-money" options position is interpreted by the market as some institutions hedging against the extreme "tail risk". In other words, someone is preparing for the occurrence of a black swan event.
3. The Strange Ratio: Bulls Won't Die, Bears Won't Stop
● However, the market sentiment is not purely panic. Data shows that despite the accumulation of put options in the low strike price region, the overall put/call ratio remains at 0.72, with the number of call contracts (63,547) still exceeding the number of put contracts (45,914).
● This reveals a subtle psychology: traders are holding onto their hopes for a rebound (by holding call options) while also having to put on safety belts to prevent falling through the floor (by buying put options). This is a typical form of "defensive optimism".
2. The Macroeconomic Storm and the "Warsh Shock": Who is Fanning the Flames?
The tense sentiment in the options market is not without reason; it is a direct reflection of the recent macroeconomic upheaval.
1. The Shadow of Tariffs
● The trade policy in American politics has once again become a shackle for risk assets. Just after the U.S. Supreme Court rejected Trump's previous emergency tariff measures, Trump announced to reinstate a temporary tariff of up to 15% based on other trade laws. The capriciousness of this policy has rekindled global trade uncertainty, directly impacting the risk appetite for assets including cryptocurrencies.
2. Has the "Water Pump" of Liquidity Been Turned Down?
● Deeper pressure comes from expectations of USD liquidity. The market is digesting a potential risk called the "Warsh Shock." Kevin Warsh, viewed as an "inflation hawk" and a supporter of quantitative tightening for the new nominee of the Federal Reserve chair, has cast a shadow of policy shift over the market.
● If he advocates a drastic reduction in the balance sheet, the dollar supply in the global market will face depletion, which, for Bitcoin that relies heavily on liquidity, is undoubtedly the sword of Damocles hanging over its head.
3. The Ultimate Question on the Technical Front: Why is $58,000-$62,000 the Line of Life and Death?
Behind the myriad macro messages, the numbers on the chart are always the most direct faith of traders. Why is the market so focused on the range of $58,000 to $62,000? This is not simply a round number, but a "Maginot Line" constructed by multiple logics.
1. The "Shutdown Price" Life-and-Death Line for Miners
● Based on the current network computing power (approximately 863 ExaHashes/s) and industrial electricity costs ($0.06-$0.08/kWh), the Bitcoin miner network is approaching its physical limits. For the previous generation of star mining machines, the Antminer S19 series, its shutdown price has reached as high as $75,000-$85,000, meaning that at the current price of $67,000, these machines have long been in a loss position.
● The real last line of defense lies in the new generation of mining machines and lower-cost participants. Data shows that the "psychological bottom" and "physical bottom" of Bitcoin are highly overlapping in the range of $52,000 to $58,000. This not only represents the ultimate limit for some older mining machines but also serves as a key support level at the 200-week moving average (about $58,000). If the price effectively falls below $58,000, it may trigger a capitulation sale by miners, causing further declines in computing power, resulting in a negative spiral.
2. The "Vacuum Zone" and "Buffer Zone" of Chip Structure
From the on-chain chip distribution perspective, a huge trading intensive area has formed between $52,000 and $72,000 during the period from 2024 to 2025. This means that this area has amassed an enormous turnover cost.
● $62,000-$65,000: This is near the cost line for short-term holders (STH). If it falls below this, these loss positions are likely to turn into selling pressure.
● $58,000-$60,000: This is the lower edge of that intensive trading area and also the last barrier for bulls. Technical analysts generally believe that if the daily closing price confirms a drop below the integer mark of $60,000, the next major support area will directly move down to $52,000 or even lower.
3. The Freezing Point of the Sentiment Index
● Market sentiment has already surrendered early. Bitcoin's "Fear and Greed Index" once dropped to 8, entering the "Extreme Fear" zone. Although history shows that extreme fear is often a buying opportunity, it currently reflects a depletion of inflow funds.
● The spot Bitcoin ETF has also seen capital outflows recently, with a daily net outflow on February 19 reaching as much as $166 million. Without new capital to drive it, the difficulty of maintaining high prices naturally increases.
4. Conclusion: How Long Can the Calm in the Eye of the Storm Last?
The current Bitcoin market is at a strange balance point.
On one hand, prices are fluctuating narrowly in the range of $67,000-$68,000, with volatility compressed to a low point, seemingly brewing for direction. On the other hand, in the options market, large capital is on alert by buying put options at $58,000-$62,000, preparing for a potential "flash crash."
Next, there are three key points in the market that will determine the direction:
● February 27 Options Expiry: By then, nearly $7.3 billion in options contracts will expire, and whether the $40,000 put options will turn from "insurance" into "in-the-money" will test the market's ability to absorb selling pressure.
● Macro Policy Signals: The confirmation process of Warsh's nomination for the Federal Reserve and his subsequent remarks will be core variables affecting global liquidity.
● Key Support Levels: $60,000 is not only a psychological barrier but also a resonance point for technical analysis and on-chain data. Once breached, the next target may aim directly at $52,000 or even lower.
For Bitcoin, $58,000-$62,000 is no longer just a price range; it is a touchstone for the current confidence and strength of the bulls. Whether this "Maginot Line" can hold will determine whether we see a bottom rebound or the prelude to a new round of deep bearishness this spring.
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