Author: BlockWeeks

The recent market has left many crypto believers with an indescribable sense of "torn feelings."

On one side, traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver are continuously hitting historical highs, seemingly mocking the collapse of fiat currency systems; on the other side, Bitcoin, once hailed as "digital gold," along with a host of altcoins, is showing a suffocating fatigue amidst wide fluctuations.

"Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be digital gold? Why isn't it rising when gold is?"

This has been the most common complaint heard in the community recently. As veterans who have been in this industry for many years, we want to strip away the emotions and discuss the underlying logic and future projections behind this.

1. Distinguishing the "True and False" of Safe-Haven Attributes: War vs. Recession

First, we must acknowledge a fact: In the face of extreme physical world geopolitical conflicts, physical gold remains the "king of safe havens."

The current rise in gold is primarily driven by geopolitical turmoil (Middle East situation, Russia-Ukraine issue) and a global trend of de-dollarization among central banks (especially in developing countries) buying gold. This is a defensive buying. When the guns start firing, the first reaction of capital is to cut off risks and embrace the strongest physical asset that has been a human consensus for thousands of years.

As for cryptocurrencies, in the current Wall Street narrative, they are not just "safe-haven assets"; they are more priced as "highly liquid tech growth stocks" (the high beta version of Nasdaq).

• Gold's rise logic: Driven by fear. The more chaotic the world, the more expensive gold becomes.

• Current state of cryptocurrencies: Their rise requires "liquidity" and "risk appetite." The current market is in a game of expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, with high interest rates acting like a sword hanging over our heads, suppressing the valuations of risk assets.

In simple terms, gold is trading on "fear," while cryptocurrencies are waiting for the return of "greed."

2. The Lag in Liquidity Transmission: We Are in a "Gear Shift" Period

Many new investors tend to overlook the sequence of capital flow. In the macroeconomic cycle, funds do not flood into all assets simultaneously.

1. First Stage (Safe-Haven Period): Funds flow into U.S. Treasuries and gold. This is what we are seeing now.

2. Second Stage (Commodity Period): With inflation expectations or supply-side issues, copper, silver, and oil rise. The current rise in silver is a reflection of this logic.

3. Third Stage (Risk Diffusion Period): When fiat currency credit is further damaged, or central banks confirm the start of a large-scale liquidity injection, the overflow of liquidity will then flow into Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum and altcoins.

Currently, we are stuck in the awkward transition from the first stage to the second stage. As the asset at the end of the risk curve, cryptocurrencies often receive liquidity last, but once they do, the gains are the most astonishing. This lag was also seen after March 2020—gold moved first, and then Bitcoin entered a frenzied bull market.

3. The "Double-Edged Sword" of ETFs: Growing Pains After Institutionalization

The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs this year is a milestone, but also a temporary "shackle."

ETFs have allowed Bitcoin to enter the traditional asset management allocation pool, but it also means it must accept Wall Street's pricing rules. Bitcoin now looks more at Nasdaq's performance rather than on-chain activity.

• Capital Diversion: Traditional funds, when faced with the risk of "inflation resurfacing," are more inclined to allocate to gold ETFs, as this aligns with their century-old risk control models.

• Narrative Vacuum: The halving has occurred, and the benefits of ETFs have been realized. The market currently lacks a new, sufficiently attractive narrative engine. AI has taken money from the tech sector, gold has taken money from the safe-haven sector, and crypto is temporarily in a "no man's land."

4. The Calm Before the Storm: Why We Shouldn't Be Pessimistic?

Despite the current situation looking "sluggish," we remain extremely optimistic about the future. There are three reasons:

1. The endgame of fiat currency devaluation remains unchanged: The essence of gold's rise is the decline in fiat purchasing power. This logic will eventually transmit to Bitcoin. Gold is the lifeboat of the old world; due to its inconvenience in transport and difficulty in division, it cannot carry the wealth transfer of the digital economy era; whereas Bitcoin is the ark of the new world.

2. "Long periods lead to declines" is a misconception; this is more like "building strength": Observing on-chain data, long-term holders have not engaged in large-scale selling; the selling pressure mainly comes from short-term speculative liquidations. This prolonged consolidation near historical highs is digesting profit-taking for the next wave of surges.

3. The liquidity valve will eventually open: No matter how hawkish the Fed is now, facing high debt interest, rate cuts and balance sheet expansion are just a matter of time. Once the liquidity floodgates open, the characteristic of cryptocurrencies as a "liquidity sponge" will re-emerge, and its elasticity will far exceed that of gold.

Conclusion: Advice for Practitioners and Investors

The rise of gold and silver is not the death knell for cryptocurrencies, but rather a warning signal. It tells us: fiat currency credit is shaking, and the major inflation cycle may not be over.

At this stage, the "sluggishness" of cryptocurrencies is a healthy cleansing. Do not attempt to forcibly explain Bitcoin's short-term fluctuations with gold's logic.

BlockWeeks' advice is clear: Respect the safe-haven value of gold, but firmly hold onto the growth odds of cryptocurrencies. The current silence is to prepare for the moment when the Fed presses the "money printing button," unleashing alpha returns far exceeding precious metals.

If you feel anxious because Bitcoin is stagnant, perhaps ask yourself: do you want to buy a shield that retains value (gold), or do you want to buy a ticket to future wealth distribution (cryptocurrency)?

Enduring loneliness is the key to preserving prosperity.

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