30% of Chips at a Loss and Market Mispricing

Recent on-chain data shows that approximately 33%-33.5% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is in a state of unrealized loss, corresponding to over 7 million BTC, which is approaching the loss ratio range seen during the last mid-cycle adjustment phase. In the absence of an extreme price crash, such a volume of chips at a loss indicates that a significant portion of funds that bought at high levels are experiencing noticeable drawdowns. Structurally, on one side, a massive amount of chips is trapped, while on the other side, some on-chain addresses are choosing to increase their holdings against the trend: monitoring agency OnchainLens indicates that new addresses from Binance have recently accumulated about 1,600 BTC, displaying funding behavior that is starkly different from retail sentiment. At the same time, data from The Kobeissi Letter suggests that the Bitcoin/silver ratio has dropped to 1104, and the Bitcoin/gold ratio has also fallen to 19, marking new lows since November 2023. Coupled with the relative strength of precious metals, this forms a broader context of "Bitcoin under pressure, traditional safe-haven assets being repriced."

Historical Range of 30% Supply at a Loss

A loss ratio of approximately 33%-33.5% corresponds to over 7 million BTC at a loss, meaning that more than one out of every three circulating Bitcoins is held by trapped chips. This not only weakens the willingness to buy in the short term but also alters the elasticity of chip distribution. Compared to a similar loss ratio range in October 2023, when Bitcoin experienced a mid-cycle adjustment, the price fluctuated multiple times within a range, and market sentiment transitioned from panic to wait-and-see, without experiencing a deep clearance similar to an extreme bear market. The current state is summarized by industry observers as "the current level of unrealized loss for holders is close to the level of the last adjustment range," indicating that the market is closer to a medium-strength repricing process: on one hand, chips at a loss constitute potential selling pressure, and if the price continues to decline, some short-term participants may be forced to stop-loss; on the other hand, the fact that extreme loss thresholds have not yet been reached suggests that while sentiment is cautious, it is still some distance from the capitulation phase where "no one is willing to hold."

On-Chain Addresses Increasing Holdings Against the Trend and Chip Migration

In contrast to the overall unrealized losses, there is the behavior of Binance-related on-chain addresses increasing their holdings against the trend. OnchainLens has detected that new addresses from Binance have recently absorbed about 1,600 BTC. This type of "concentrated accumulation, dispersed holding" address cluster has historically been interpreted by the market as institutional accounts, market makers, or high-net-worth individuals making medium to long-term allocations through exchange channels, rather than engaging in short-term trading. In the context of the current 30% supply being at a loss, this counter-trend accumulation appears to be taking advantage of the depressed sentiment to absorb selling pressure. An increase in the loss ratio is often accompanied by short-term speculators reducing their positions and leveraged funds lowering their exposure, while new accumulation addresses slowly build positions in the bottom area, migrating chips from "weak hands" that are cost-sensitive and have low volatility resistance to "strong hands" that have better drawdown resistance and a longer cyclical perspective. In terms of rhythm, this migration is usually not completed all at once but is played out repeatedly with fluctuations: each price dip may trigger a new round of exchanges between weak hands exiting and strong hands accumulating.

Abnormal Decline in Bitcoin and Precious Metal Ratios

While prices are relatively under pressure, the relative ratios between Bitcoin and precious metals have also seen a significant decline. Data from The Kobeissi Letter shows that the Bitcoin/silver ratio has dropped to 1104, and the Bitcoin/gold ratio has also fallen to 19, reaching new lows since November 2023. This indicates that, over the past period, silver and gold have outperformed Bitcoin in a phased manner. The market generally views this change as a phase of capital rotation from high-volatility, high-beta assets to traditional safe-haven assets: in an environment of rising macro uncertainty and fluctuating interest rate expectations, some institutions prefer to increase their allocations to precious metals like gold and silver to hedge against tail risks. Changes in relative valuation will directly affect asset allocation weights and rebalancing actions—when Bitcoin appears to have "over-increased" relative to precious metals, institutions often reduce some crypto positions and increase holdings in physical or ETF forms of precious metals; conversely, when the ratio significantly declines to a low range, strategic funds may reassess Bitcoin's cost-effectiveness, laying the groundwork for the next round of crypto narratives to return to the mainstream.

Side Confirmation from Prediction Markets and Tokenized Metals

However, from the performance of other on-chain sectors, overall risk appetite has not experienced a systemic collapse. Data from DefiLlama indicates that the prediction market Opinion has accumulated a trading volume of over $10 billion within about 55 days of its launch, maintaining high-frequency betting and capital inflows and outflows even in an environment of regulatory and macro headwinds, indicating that a type of capital "willing to bear volatility for higher returns" remains active. At the same time, the exchange WEEX has launched spot trading for the tokenized silver product SLVON, providing a programmable trading vehicle for precious metals, connecting traditional safe-haven assets with crypto-native liquidity pools. Combining these side data, it can be seen that the current situation is not a complete halt in risk appetite, but rather a diffusion process from "single bets on Bitcoin" to "multi-asset portfolio allocations": some funds seek high-odds opportunities through prediction markets, while others use tokenized silver, on-chain gold, and other tools to embed hedging logic into the crypto ecosystem, achieving dynamic balance across assets and narratives.

Repricing Logic of Chips Under Unrealized Loss Pressure

Observing the unrealized loss ratio, counter-trend accumulation behavior, and the relative strength of precious metals together, it can be inferred that the current stage is closer to a "mid-cycle adjustment range," rather than the extreme panic capitulation state seen at historical bottoms: the 30% of chips at a loss brings some selling pressure, but the continuous absorption of 1,600 BTC by new Binance addresses indicates that there are still funds choosing to make long-term layouts during the volatility period. At the same time, the decline in the Bitcoin ratio relative to silver and gold has also increased the weight of safe-haven assets in the portfolio, causing Bitcoin to undergo a repricing of relative valuation within a multi-asset framework. What needs to be watched going forward is that if prices continue to decline and the area of unrealized losses expands further, it may trigger chain reactions such as leveraged liquidations and passive reductions of pledged assets, amplifying short-term selling pressure; however, once the weak hands clear out and the strong hands accumulate, the concentration of chips often provides fuel for the next round of reflexive upward movement. It is important to emphasize that the specific profit levels of long-term holders and the precise comparison of the current loss range with historical extremes still await updates from authoritative institutions like Glassnode. At this stage, no specific predictions are made regarding the depth of losses or the timing of price turning points. A more reasonable approach is to dynamically monitor the unrealized loss ratio, institutional address behavior, and cross-asset ratios to track the rhythm changes of this chip repricing.

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