Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
The preliminary annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the United States in the third quarter, released last night, recorded 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations. In response, Trump praised the strong GDP data but expressed dissatisfaction with the current market reaction pattern, clearly stating that he hopes the newly appointed Federal Reserve chairman will lower interest rates to stimulate growth when the economy is improving, rather than suppressing the market out of inflation concerns. Driven by both geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts, the precious metals market has entered a hot "Christmas market," with gold prices historically breaking above $4,525, silver surpassing $72, and spot platinum and palladium also breaking above $2,377 and $1,918, respectively, all reaching historic highs. Analysts are generally optimistic about the future of precious metals. Yardeni Research boldly predicts that gold prices will reach $6,000 by the end of 2026 and may touch $10,000 by the end of 2029. Ahmad Assiri, a strategist at Pepperstone, believes that geopolitical friction has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, and price levels like $4,500 and $70 are more like reference points in the trend rather than solid tops. Peter Grant from Zaner Metals pointed out that silver's next target is $75, driven by a persistent supply-demand deficit and growth in industrial demand. Analysts at SP Angel expect gold prices to rise to $5,000 next year and view central bank reserve diversification as a long-term driving force. Additionally, with Christmas Eve and Christmas approaching, U.S. stocks will close early at 2 AM tomorrow. Although expectations of loose policies and positive economic data make the outlook for 2026 optimistic, uncertainties in the AI industry and the impact of interest rate cuts on consumption remain potential risks.
The Bitcoin market continues to fluctuate in a low liquidity environment at the end of the year, with prices hovering around the $87,000 to $88,000 range. Bitcoin prices are hindered by a downward trend line since the historical high of $126,000, failing to break through the $90,000 mark, thus continuing the downward trend of the fourth quarter, with market sentiment becoming exceptionally weak. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the continued selling by large holders is the main reason for Bitcoin's recent underperformance, while capital is shifting towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver. CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole warns that if Bitcoin falls below the short-term support of $84,000 to $84,500, it may further drop to the November low of $80,000. Only by breaking through that trend line resistance can Bitcoin hope to return to an upward trend, with a target possibly pointing to $100,000. Analyst Astronomer also noted that a higher low is currently forming, with the $84,000 low being safe, and the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in the market is a contrarian bullish signal. Analyst Maartunn mentioned that the average entry price for Bitcoin ETFs is $86,530, and this support level remains strong. BitBull observed strong buying near the $80,000 mark, believing this area will become a solid bottom before a rebound in the first quarter of 2026. However, pessimist Killa predicts that Bitcoin's price may experience a significant drop to $60,000 starting in February or March after 1-2 months of fluctuations.
Ethereum has also fallen below the $3,000 mark, struggling around $2,900. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes that the key in the coming days is whether it can break through the 20-day moving average; if successful, it would indicate the end of this adjustment and open the door to a new round of increases leading to 2026. BitBull also stated that there is significant buying around $2,600, which is expected to hold as support before a rebound in the first quarter of 2026. However, pessimistic forecasts also exist; analyst Ali Charts pointed out that Ethereum seems to be forming a head and shoulders pattern, which may indicate a price pullback to $2,400. StefanB stated that he would not consider going long until the price falls back to the $2,800 or even $2,712 area. Man of Bitcoin also believes that ideally, the price should first pull back to the support area before rising. Notably, despite the overall weak market sentiment, Bitmine, led by Tom Lee, still purchased $201 million worth of Ethereum in the past 24 hours.
Altcoins are in particularly difficult situations, with the arrival of "altcoin season" seeming far off. Data shows that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin has dropped 32% from the historical high in October, with multiple indicators showing the market is in an extremely weak state. Meanwhile, investor behavior in the South Korean market has also changed; according to a report from the Bank of Korea, investors have shifted from previously aggressive buying to short-term profit-taking, resulting in a highly retail-oriented market with high turnover rates, contrasting with the increasingly institutional trend in the global market.
Despite the overall market slump, some projects like PIPPIN have rebounded against the trend, surging over 30% within 24 hours due to massive capital inflows, but also accompanied by high-risk characteristics such as concentrated holdings. Looking ahead, Fish, co-founder of Trader Joe, predicts that the market may experience a sharp and unexpected rebound after Christmas, and if the U.S. can pass clearer regulatory frameworks for the industry, such as the "Clarity Act," in early 2026, it could inject new momentum into the recovery of altcoins and DeFi.
2. Key Data (as of December 24, 13:00 HKT)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin: $87,157 (YTD -6.8%), daily spot trading volume $47.37 billion
Ethereum: $2,936 (YTD -12.1%), daily spot trading volume $22.06 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 24 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, AVNT, GRS
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.19% / 50.81%
Sector performance: NFT sector down 9.87%, GameFi sector down 8.46%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 78,779 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $225 million, including $76.41 million in BTC, $49.39 million in ETH, and $19.18 million in SOL.
3. ETF Flows (as of December 23)
Bitcoin ETF: -$188.6 million, continuing 4 days of net outflows
Ethereum ETF: -$95.53 million
Solana ETF: +$4.2 million
XRP ETF: +$8.19 million
4. Today's Outlook
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 (10,000): Previous value 224, expected value 224 (December 24, 21:30)
On Christmas Eve, U.S. stocks will close early, European stocks may close early, and Hong Kong stocks will trade half a day (expected to close early at 2:00 AM Beijing time on December 25)
On Christmas Day, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, European stocks, and Korean stocks will be closed, and Brent crude oil futures will suspend trading (December 25)
Humanity (H) will unlock approximately 105 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on December 25, with a circulation ratio of 4.79%, valued at approximately $14.8 million;
Plasma (XPL) will unlock approximately 88.89 million tokens at 8 PM Beijing time on December 25, with a circulation ratio of 4.5%, valued at approximately $11.7 million;
Top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: PIPPIN up 30.4%, Rain up 13.9%, Canton Network up 5.5%, Sky (previously Maker) up 2.9%, Maker up 2.9%.
5. Hot News
U.S. Q3 GDP preliminary value exceeds expectations, core PCE meets expectations
U.S. economy expands at a rate of 4.3% in Q3, the fastest growth in two years
James Wynn increases long position on BTC with 40x leverage, simultaneously going long on PEPE
Trump Media transferred 2,000 BTC 8 hours ago, valued at approximately $175 million
Bitmine purchased another 67,886 ETH in the past 24 hours, valued at over $200 million
HashKey Capital's fourth fund completes $250 million first round of fundraising
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