On the daily timeframe, bitcoin’s trajectory reads like the aftermath of a wild party—price smashed its way down from a peak of $126,272 to a sobering low around $80,537, before slipping into a hungover consolidation just north of $90,000. Volume tells a tale of transition: fading red candles and steadier green ones hint at accumulation, not apathy.

The trend may not scream reversal yet, but a breakout above the $95,000 zone, especially with conviction in volume, would flip the market mood decisively. Until then, the price churn between $89,000 and $92,000 remains a psychological chessboard for patient traders. Caution to the impulsive—at the moment this is a waiting game, not a sprint.

BTC/USD 1-day chart via Bitstamp on Dec. 12, 2025.

Shift your gaze to the 4-hour chart and you’ll find bitcoin flexing some short-term strength beneath the hood. Since a Dec. 1 dip to $83,814, price action has clawed its way up to $94,652 and is now grinding within a tighter channel. Higher lows and strengthening green candle volume signal the bulls have been warming up. Still, resistance around $94,000–$94,500 looms like a giant bouncer at the club door— bitcoin knocks, but doesn’t yet walk through. With repeated support tests holding above $89,000, the setup favors sharp entries with disciplined exits, but it’s a tightrope walk that rewards precision, not bravado.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart via Bitstamp on Dec. 12, 2025.

The 1-hour chart, bitcoin’s version of short-term gossip, shows a market cooling off after a quick flirtation with $94,652. A pullback ushered the price back toward $92,000–$92,500, where it now idles like an engine on low. The momentum oscillator (momentum) is flashing 1,060—a classic overextension signal—while the relative strength index (RSI) at 49 confirms the malaise. With volume drying up, short-term players may find themselves stuck in quicksand unless a catalyst jolts the chart back into motion. Until then, it’s all side glances and sideways candles.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart via Bitstamp on Dec. 12, 2025.

Oscillator readings across all timeframes are showing classic symptoms of indecision. The relative strength index (RSI), Stochastic, commodity channel index (CCI), average directional index (ADX), and Awesome oscillator are all clocking in as “neutral,” with only momentum leaning negative and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) sitting in a contradictory positive. Translation? The market is split between catching its breath and plotting its next move. For the seasoned trader, this is the kind of ambivalence that can either trap or reward depending on timing and temperament.

Moving averages (MAs) present a curious contradiction: the 10-day and 20-day exponential and simple moving averages (EMAs & SMAs) are all in alignment with upward bias, while the 30-day exponential moving average tips bearish at $93,146. Beyond that, the 50-day through 200-day MAs—both exponential and simple—are firmly tilted downward, with the 100-day and 200-day SMAs sitting all the way up at $105,792 and $108,771, respectively. This split dynamic implies one thing: short-term signals are trying to muscle past longer-term bearish pressure. Any sustained move higher will need to break through more than just resistance—it’ll need to defy gravity. Until then, the prevailing tone is best described as “hesitantly optimistic, with a chance of whiplash.”

Open interest across all bitcoin futures exchanges has climbed to $59.57 billion according to stats logged by coinglass.com, backed by 645.34K BTC in contracts. CME has snatched the top spot with $11.67 billion in open interest, now accounting for 19.58% of the total share—no surprise, considering its 2.10% increase in the last 24 hours, signaling institutional appetite hasn’t left the table.

Binance follows closely with $10.92 billion in open interest and a 1.29% increase over the same period, though its hourly growth (+0.07%) was more of a sleepy stretch than a bullish sprint. Meanwhile, Bybit and Gate are flashing red in the short term, with 24-hour declines of -0.66% and -2.24% respectively—suggesting either a cooldown in leveraged exposure or a sharp repositioning.

Bitcoin futures open interest on Friday, Dec. 12, 2025. Source Coinglass.

Zooming out, the broader futures open interest trend tells a compelling story: it has ballooned alongside price surges, with both peaking mid-year before undergoing a synchronized descent. This pairing of price and open interest, visible in the long-term coinglass chart, reflects the kind of market leverage that fuels both melt-ups and meltdowns. But notably, even as bitcoin hovers in the low $90K range, open interest remains stubbornly high, suggesting this market isn’t just holding its breath—it’s hedging aggressively.

On the options front, the data is equally rich—and ripe with narrative. Calls continue to dominate open interest, commanding 64.26% of contracts versus 35.74% in puts. Volume tells a slightly more nuanced tale, with 24-hour call volume at 52.63% and puts trailing just behind at 47.37%. The most crowded trade? Deribit’s Dec. 26 $100,000 call, boasting 18,117 BTC in open interest—yes, traders are still betting on a holiday miracle. Other high-interest call strikes include $106,000 and $112,000, while downside protection is evident in hefty put positions at $85,000 and $80,000. It’s a battlefield of optimism and paranoia, and neither side is packing lightly.

Bitcoin options open interest on Friday, Dec. 12, 2025. Source Coinglass.

And then there’s max pain—the level where options expire with the most financial discomfort for the majority of traders, and where the market often gravitates like a moth to flame. Coinglass stats show on Deribit, the Dec. 26 max pain level is circling around $100,000, a psychological magnet and a potential volatility spike zone. On Binance, the pain point is eerily similar, clinging tightly to the same level despite wildly different notional values and call stacks.

Also read: December Outlook: Ethereum’s Derivatives Market Signals Big Moves Ahead

OKX, slightly more conservative, sees its red-line magnet closer to the $93,000 mark—a hair’s breadth from bitcoin’s current price. This clustering around high strike levels suggests the market is heavily optioned for upside, but those max pain levels could pull the price back like gravity if momentum falters.

In sum, derivatives are still buzzing with great energy, and the positioning reveals a market trying to decide whether it’s topping off or gearing up. With open interest still high, leverage remains thick in the air—just waiting for a catalyst to ignite it. Traders may be split across timeframes, but one thing is clear: bitcoin’s derivatives markets are primed for fireworks.

Bull Verdict:

The bullish case hinges on bitcoin holding its footing above $90,000 while derivative traders continue to lean long, stacking calls at six-figure strikes and driving open interest higher. With support zones respected across timeframes and spot volume suggesting quiet accumulation, the setup favors a breakout—if, and only if, bitcoin can push past $95,000 with conviction. Until then, the bulls may be loading, not leading—but the coil is tight, and the catalyst only needs to flicker.

Bear Verdict:

Despite surface-level stability, the bears have a case rooted in fading momentum, overloaded leverage, and a spot market that’s clearly winded. Oscillators have gone limp, volume is drying up, and futures open interest looks more like a trap than a signal. If bitcoin fails to break above resistance and slides below $89,000, the unwind could be fast, sharp, and unforgiving—especially with max pain levels pulling price back into discomfort zones.

• What is bitcoin’s current price trend?
  Bitcoin is consolidating near $92,000 with resistance around $95,000 and support near $89,000.
• How are bitcoin futures performing today?
  Bitcoin futures open interest remains high at $59.57B, with CME leading exchange activity.
• Where are bitcoin options traders focusing?
  Most bitcoin options are concentrated around the $100,000 strike for the December expiry.
• What’s the max pain level for bitcoin options?
  The max pain point is currently clustered near $100,000 on major exchanges like Deribit and Binance.

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