BlackRock pointed out in its latest "2026 Investment Outlook" that the world is undergoing a profound structural transformation driven by a few "super trends," with artificial intelligence (AI) becoming a core force reshaping the economic and market landscape. The capital-intensive expansion brought by AI is breaking through multiple boundaries in finance, energy, and policy, making the market increasingly reliant on a few key drivers. BlackRock believes that during this restructuring cycle, investors will inevitably face directional choices, while the importance of active investment will significantly increase.

This article will outline the key threads in BlackRock's outlook report and present its core judgments on the market environment in 2026, providing a framework for a deeper understanding of the new investment cycle driven by AI.

The report indicates that AI-related capital expenditures will continue to support U.S. economic growth in 2026. This year, the contribution of AI investment to U.S. economic growth has reached three times the historical average. This capital-driven growth momentum is expected to continue into next year, allowing overall growth to remain resilient even as the labor market cools. In this state of "neither large-scale hiring nor large-scale layoffs," the Federal Reserve will have room to continue modest rate cuts in 2026.

Estimates suggest that global corporate capital expenditures on AI could reach $5 to $8 trillion by 2030. However, capital expenditures in this area will far outpace revenue realization, meaning that AI builders will need to navigate through a "peak financing period" by borrowing. The rise in private sector leverage will compound with high public sector debt, making the financial system more susceptible to shocks, especially the financing risks brought about by soaring interest rates. This will shape a distinctly different investment environment with several key characteristics: first, higher leverage will boost credit issuance in public and private markets; second, large-scale financing demands may keep capital costs elevated for the long term; third, the concentrated rise in the tech sector will force investors to make clearer directional judgments before AI revenues spill over on a large scale; fourth, as AI earnings diffuse, active management and alpha opportunities will significantly increase. Overall, this means that traditional asset allocation methods need to be re-evaluated.

The "Micro Driving Macro" Era of AI

Global AI infrastructure investment is being dominated by a few tech giants, whose investment scale has significant macroeconomic influence.

The revenue share of the tech sector still has room for growth, especially as current AI giants continue to penetrate software and other ecosystem sectors, eroding existing markets. At the same time, the incremental revenue brought by AI will accelerate its spread to other industries and even the entire economic system, with new AI-driven business models continuously emerging. How future revenues will be redistributed among different entities remains highly uncertain, indicating that the true winners have yet to be revealed.

BlackRock continues to maintain an overweight position on AI-themed U.S. stocks. However, BlackRock also states that large-scale investments related to AI may benefit the "overall economy," but do not guarantee that every company investing heavily will achieve corresponding returns.

Leveraging Up for the AI Investment Wave

The initial capital demand for AI is enormous, pushing companies to increase their leverage. The good news is that the current debt levels of tech giants are relatively low, so they have the capacity and space to continue borrowing. However, the sheer size of AI investments, coupled with the government's inability to share the burden, is leading to an increase in overall financing demand, putting upward pressure on interest rates and long-term Treasury yields. Therefore, investment strategies need to reduce holdings in long-term U.S. Treasuries.

The "Illusion" of Diversified Allocation

The returns in the U.S. stock market are increasingly driven by a single force (especially AI), leading to rising market concentration. Therefore, attempts to "diversify risk" by reducing exposure to U.S. stocks or AI are essentially larger active bets rather than traditional diversification. At the same time, traditional safe-haven assets like long-term U.S. Treasuries can no longer provide stable hedging effects, and gold is more tactical, making it difficult to serve as a long-term anchor. Overall, investors need to shift from passive diversification to a more active and refined layout, achieving true risk management and diversification of income sources through private equity, hedge funds, and other means.

Stablecoins Accelerate "Going Mainstream"

According to Coingecko data, as of November 27, the global market capitalization of stablecoins has exceeded $250 billion, and their applications in payment fields have become more widespread, from crypto trading and settlement to cross-border transfers. BlackRock points out that as digital tokens anchored to fiat currencies and supported by reserve assets, stablecoins are evolving from tools that only serve the crypto ecosystem to "bridges" connecting digital finance and traditional finance.

The recently passed "Genius Act" has become the first regulatory framework for stablecoin payments in the U.S., bringing issuers under regulation. This means that stablecoins may compete with bank deposits or money market funds in the future; if the scale of competition is large enough, it could change the way banks provide credit to the real economy. However, the ultimate extent of this change remains highly uncertain. What is clearer is that stablecoins are accelerating in popularity and beginning to integrate into mainstream payment systems.

In emerging market countries, stablecoins may even be used for domestic payments as a substitute for local currencies; while this could improve the accessibility of the dollar, a reduction in local currency usage could weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy and, to some extent, support the dollar's status.

BlackRock's Allocation Plan

In the report, BlackRock states that it will continue to overweight U.S. stocks in its asset allocation. AI-related opportunities have this year extended from the U.S. to broader markets such as China, Taiwan, and South Korea. In contrast, European profit growth still lags significantly behind that of the U.S., so BlackRock maintains a neutral stance on European stocks but is optimistic about the financial and industrial sectors within Europe.

Japanese stocks are clearly preferred assets. Japan's robust economic growth and more shareholder-friendly reforms are key logic for continued bullishness. However, BlackRock is underweighting Japanese government bonds and broader developed market long-term bonds. In emerging markets, BlackRock favors hard currency bonds with attractive yields, limited issuance, and robust sovereign balance sheets.

From a long-term perspective, India is one of the most attractive investment destinations in emerging markets, and it is recommended to increase the allocation weight of Indian stocks in strategic portfolios of five years or more. BlackRock points out that India's greatest long-term advantage lies in its demographic structure: its large and continuously expanding working-age population means stronger productivity and consumption growth potential. Additionally, against the backdrop of increasing global geopolitical fragmentation, India, as a "multilateral aligner" and "key connector" country, is also expected to continue benefiting.

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Original article: “A Quick Overview of BlackRock's 2026 Investment Guide: Betting on AI U.S. Stocks, Bearish on Long-term U.S. Bonds, AI Financing Wave May Raise Rates”

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