U.S. President Trump is closing in on his first year in office, and when he won and took the oath, plenty of polls clocked his approval near or above 50% thanks to a burst of post-election optimism. By October, the polling picture grew more mixed, but in November, Trump saw his numbers slip for one reason or another, with NPR/PBS/Marist, Gallup, and Reuters all landing him between 36% and 39%.

These polls have fueled the view that Democrats are on track to seize the majority in the House of Representatives. According to Polymarket bettors, Democrats hold a 78% chance of winning the House in 2026, while Republicans sit at 23%. And just recently, Democratic odds brushed up against the 80% mark. As for the Senate, Polymarket wagerers are putting their money on the GOP.

Polymarket House of Representatives odds on Dec. 5, 2025.

There’s a 66% chance Republicans snag the Senate lead in 2026. Odds on Kalshi, Polymarket’s rival, tell much of the same story, with Democrats holding a 78% chance of winning the House according to bettors on that platform. Polymarket’s House market has drawn $731,716 in volume, while Kalshi’s version of the same wager has climbed to just over $2 million.

Kalshi House of Representatives odds on Dec. 5, 2025.

It’s likely both markets will keep attracting volume right up to the elections. These prediction platforms, however, aren’t the only ones eyeing Democrats for a bigger foothold in Congress. Several quantitative and ratings-based models cast Democrats as slight to modest favorites to reclaim the House.

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However, not all forecasters view a Democratic takeover as a done deal. Cook’s latest House race ratings list 213 districts as Lean/Solid Republican, 204 as Lean/Solid Democrat, and 18 as Toss-ups, giving Republicans a structural edge that keeps any talk of a Democratic sweep in check. Still, most polls and the prediction markets mentioned above are tilting more in the Democrats’ direction, and this could shift the U.S. policy playbook in various ways.

For example, if Democrats reclaim the House after the 2026 midterms, they could try to press for stricter rules on the crypto industry, but whether any of it sticks would hinge on factors like the Senate’s makeup and Trump’s veto power. What’s more realistic is that a divided government would produce gridlock or watered-down compromises rather than any sweeping crackdowns from Democrats.

Taken together, the polling dips, betting odds, and early modeling paint a political picture that’s anything but tidy, leaving both parties elbowing for position as 2026 approaches. With voters sending mixed signals and prediction markets tilting blue, the coming stretch shapes up to be a trial of momentum, messaging, and stamina — and whichever political party manages to cash in will end up steering the balance of power.

• What are prediction markets saying about the 2026 midterms?
  Prediction markets currently tilt toward Democrats retaking the House, while Republicans remain favored in the Senate.
• How is President Trump polling as he approaches his first year back in office?
  Recent national surveys place Trump’s approval in the high-30% range after slipping from his early-term highs.
• Why do some forecasters still see Republicans with an edge?
  Cook’s House ratings show Republicans holding more Lean/Solid districts, giving them structural leverage.
• Could a Democratic House affect crypto regulation?
  A Democratic-led House could push for tighter crypto rules, though divided government might temper any sweeping action.

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