Written by: Luke, Mars Finance
On November 20, a highly divided tale unfolded in the global capital markets.
On one side of Wall Street, the frenzy in tech stocks nearly blew the roof off. NVIDIA delivered a miraculous earnings report: Q3 revenue for fiscal year 2026 reached $57 billion, far exceeding the expected $54.9 billion; the Q4 guidance pointed directly to $65 billion. CEO Jensen Huang's declaration, "I do not see an AI bubble," acted like a shot of adrenaline for Wall Street.
However, on the other side of Wall Street—the cryptocurrency market—the air seemed to have solidified.
Despite Bitcoin rebounding strongly after the earnings report, riding the coattails of tech stocks, with prices briefly rising to $92,700, it felt more like a colorless dead cat bounce. Because behind the candlestick chart, an unprecedented mass exodus was taking place.
Bitcoin's largest bull, once seen as the unwavering anchor—BlackRock—was leading the sell-off. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes also dealt a blow to the expectations of a rate cut in December.
In this late November, which should have been filled with hopes for a Christmas rally, the crypto market suddenly found itself trapped in a three-front siege: National-level AI strategies are draining resources, BlackRock is withdrawing investments, and the Federal Reserve is pulling the ladder away.
1. BlackRock's Betrayal: A Decisive Exit of $1.7 Billion
Data does not lie, and it is shocking.
According to the latest data from SoSoValue, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT), which has been the largest net buyer in the crypto market for the past 22 months, suddenly changed its tune in November.
Continuous red bars (net outflows) have become the norm. In just four trading days from November 13 to 18, the daily outflows reached as high as $869 million, $492 million, $254 million, and $372 million.
This marks the darkest and most decisive capital exodus since IBIT's inception.
It is important to note that IBIT manages over $122 billion in assets, making it the absolute king among all spot Bitcoin ETFs. In its first four months, the word "outflow" had almost never appeared in its vocabulary. It was synonymous with institutional faith.
But now, the engine has stalled and even begun to reverse.
This is not because BlackRock suddenly lost faith in Bitcoin, but because the nature of capital is profit-seeking and short-sighted. We must acknowledge a harsh reality: in the eyes of institutions, Bitcoin is not a belief; it is merely an asset allocation category.
When another category of assets (AI) demonstrates stronger certainty and explosive potential, institutions will not hesitate to hit the sell button and adjust their portfolios. The continuous outflow from BlackRock's IBIT is direct evidence of this rotation from crypto to AI.
2. Dimensional Strike: From "NVIDIA Earnings" to "Genesis Mission"
If NVIDIA's earnings report merely put pressure on Bitcoin, then Trump's upcoming "Genesis Mission" is a dimensional strike against the crypto market.
According to the latest media reports, Trump plans to officially launch this executive order at the White House next Monday. Carl Coe, chief of staff at the U.S. Department of Energy, clearly stated that the government positions the AI race as a national strategic priority on par with the "Manhattan Project" and the "Space Race."
This fundamentally changes the nature of the game.
1. Shift of National Will The crypto community has long hoped for Trump's crypto-friendly policies. However, the exposure of the Genesis Mission reveals a harsh priority: in Trump's eyes, AI is a nuclear weapon concerning national destiny, while cryptocurrency may just be a decent financial tool. This week, Trump personally approved the sale of advanced AI chips to Saudi Arabia during a meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince and promoted collaboration between NVIDIA, xAI, and Saudi enterprises to develop data centers. This means that the world's top political, diplomatic, and energy resources are all leaning towards AI.
2. The Capital Siphoning Effect Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, market liquidity is limited. Capital flows like water; it goes where there are growth opportunities.
Option A (AI): The Manhattan Project backed by the government, oil dollars from the Saudi Crown Prince, and NVIDIA's solid revenue of $57 billion.
Option B (Crypto): Facing regulatory uncertainties, lacking new narrative growth points, and prices oscillating at historical highs.
For fund managers controlling hundreds of billions in capital, this is a no-brainer. They are withdrawing profits from risk-hedging assets (Bitcoin) and flooding into certainty growth assets (AI tech stocks).
At this moment, Bitcoin unfortunately becomes the ATM for the AI feast. Every point increase in NVIDIA's stock and every new AI policy pushed by Trump means that some capital flows out of the crypto market.
3. Macro Withdrawal: The Federal Reserve Kills December Rate Cuts
If BlackRock's outflow is blood loss, then the Federal Reserve's latest minutes are the severing of the blood supply.
The minutes from the October meeting released on November 20 completely shattered the market's fantasy of a loose Christmas.
The minutes show that divisions within the Federal Reserve are deepening. While many participants support a rate cut, several officials explicitly oppose it, fearing that inflation may not return to 2% in a timely manner and even worrying that long-term inflation expectations may rise.
More damagingly, the market's expected probability of a December rate cut plummeted to 31.6% after the minutes were released.
This is an extremely dangerous signal.
In recent months, one important logical support for Bitcoin staying above $90,000 has been the belief that a rate cut cycle has begun, leading to an influx of liquidity. But now, the Federal Reserve tells us: hold on, we may need to pause.
The minutes even specifically mentioned concerns about the stock market, warning that a sharp re-evaluation of investments in artificial intelligence could lead to a disorderly decline in the stock market. This indicates that the Federal Reserve is not only watching inflation but also monitoring the AI bubble. They are hesitant to cut rates, partly because the stock market driven by NVIDIA is too hot, creating an overly loose financial environment.
This creates a vicious cycle: The hotter AI gets -> The more the stock market rises -> The looser the financial environment -> The less the Federal Reserve dares to cut rates -> The more liquidity dries up in the crypto market.
4. Breaking the Myth: Christmas is a "Vacuum Test" for Liquidity
In this context of internal and external troubles, the market begins to pin hopes on the legendary Christmas rally. But this may be a huge cognitive error.
If we review Bitcoin's performance over the past 10 years (2015-2024), we find that Christmas itself does not determine rises or falls; the macro cycle determines the rises and falls.
- Bull Market Christmas (2016, 2020, 2023): A carnival of soaring prices.
- Bear Market Christmas (2018, 2021, 2022): A disaster.
Which type of Christmas will 2025 belong to?
Unfortunately, all signals point to an amplification of the downward trend.
We are facing a Christmas of liquidity vacuum.
- Institutional Exit: In late December, Wall Street traders go on vacation, and the order book thins. Prices that normally require $100 million to push down may now only need $20 million.
- Tax Harvesting: Institutions tend to sell volatile cryptocurrencies to beautify their reports (Window Dressing) before the end of the year and buy AI stocks that have the halo of national strategy.
In this context, when BlackRock's sell orders meet the thin order book of Christmas, the result is likely not a rebound but a rapid decline with significant slippage.
5. Conclusion: Waiting for a New Balance
We must clearly recognize that Bitcoin is currently in an extremely awkward vacuum period.
It has lost its largest buyer (BlackRock's IBIT is flowing out), lost its strongest narrative (stolen by Trump's Genesis Mission), and lost macro support (the Federal Reserve has paused rate cuts).
The rebound to $92,700 may be the last bit of emotional overflow brought by NVIDIA's earnings, but it cannot hide the fact that capital is flowing out.
For traders, do not blindly believe that Santa Claus will distribute candy. Until the capital flow of IBIT reverses and the Federal Reserve shifts back to a dovish stance, the trend is downward.
This round of institutional rotation from selling crypto to buying AI may have just begun. In this cold winter, preserving capital is more important than expecting miracles.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
