Key Points:
Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000, and with momentum weakening, it may retest its annual opening price of $93,500.
The Coinbase premium index has dropped to a seven-month low, reflecting strong selling pressure for spot Bitcoin in the U.S.
Short-term holders are accumulating BTC, while long-term holders continue to take profits.
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently continued its weakness into Friday's trading session, with BTC again falling below the $100,000 mark. The cryptocurrency may retest its previous low of $98,200 formed on June 23.
On Thursday, the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index, which tracks the price difference of Bitcoin between Coinbase and other global exchanges like Binance, fell to its lowest level since April 11.
A negative premium indicates that Bitcoin is trading at a discount on Coinbase, typically reflecting stronger selling pressure from U.S. investors and ETF-related outflows. Historically, prolonged negative premiums often coincide with short-term price weakness.
However, crypto trader Daan Trades noted that this phase is not uncommon within a broader downtrend. The analyst wrote that such discounts often appear when the market faces concentrated spot selling pressure from Coinbase-related flows. While not a bullish signal in itself, Daan wrote,
In other words, the continued price recovery following this discount may indicate that the market is absorbing selling pressure, potentially marking the early stages of accumulation.
On-chain data further supports this mixed setup. The net position change of short-term holders (STH) recently surged to an annual high, indicating that despite the pullback, traders typically holding coins for less than 155 days are increasing their positions.
In contrast, the net position change of long-term holders (LTH) is nearing an annual low, suggesting that experienced investors are continuing to take profits. This divergence indicates that while new buyers are entering, the absorption strength is not yet sufficient to establish a clear bottom range.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's short-term charts, whether on the one-hour or four-hour time frame, show no signs of a bullish reversal. Recent price increases have primarily been driven by short covering rather than genuine buying pressure. However, in the past few hours, BTC's open interest has steadily risen, and funding rates remain high, indicating that traders may be opening new long positions.
However, unless BTC regains $104,000 as solid support, a deeper pullback may occur in the coming week, moving towards $95,000 or even close to the annual opening price of $93,500. This trend could clear out remaining long positions and then lay the groundwork for a potential rebound led by short covering.
Related: Why Tether is more like a central bank than a stablecoin
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Coinbase Premium Hits 7-Month Low, But Traders Spot a Silver Lining”
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