The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. I welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smoke screens!
After a week away, looking back, Bitcoin is now below 100,000. The numbers on Binance look quite auspicious, with the lowest position reaching 98,888.8, and the second dip even maintaining above 99,000. The pattern has formed a double bottom, signaling a potential reversal. I want to emphasize that my articles are analyzed primarily from the perspective of two types of investors; this has led many users to feel that my explanations are somewhat vague. First, I will focus on spot trading, which is completely different from contracts. The investment in spot trading is generally estimated on an annual basis, and such fluctuations in the short term should be ignored. Therefore, my strategy for spot trading is to find good positions and not to advise anyone to give up. Many friends have issues with their timing of entry. To put it simply, for those who have been following for a long time, most of them entered around Bitcoin at 60,000 and Ethereum at 1,600-2,400, with SOL around 120-140.
Thus, in this article, I will inject confidence into this group of holders; of course, there are also users who entered later at higher prices, and some are currently at a loss. This is also a matter of timing, so the structure of my article will mainly focus on users who are entering the market, appearing more in the form of notifications. For contract users or those who have not entered the market, it may seem a bit difficult to understand, as it appears that both sides have analysis and both have some validity. It is essential to view my articles according to your own methods and combine them with reality. Although I do not recommend everyone to engage in contracts, I am also very clear that the current market that can provide everyone with opportunities to cross classes is unique, so the article will also provide some suggestions. Whether you can grasp it depends on your own understanding. I will also emphasize the risks of contracts; if you do not have the ability to withstand risks, it is best not to get involved in contracts.
Returning to the main topic, our previous analysis is as follows: in the three days before the interest rate cut, there will be an explosion, and once the speculative expectations end, it will decline. We are currently in the declining phase, which is beyond doubt, but spot users have basically not exited. The solution I provide is to let everyone respond to short-term fluctuations with short positions. For those who do not want to short, exiting would be the best choice, but for inexperienced users, there is no need to exit, as exiting means you need to grasp the timing for the next entry. After all, the biggest positive news still depends on the interest rate cut and the end of the balance sheet reduction in December, especially the moment it is confirmed to end the balance sheet reduction, which almost confirms the downward trend in November. However, at that time, a significant piece of news was the domestic non-support strategy, which made me hesitate to comment on this matter. For those who have asked me, I have also provided my views, and my friend circle has notified everyone.
Many friends want to know the downward space this time, which needs to be analyzed from two perspectives. Currently, the market is already polarized, with BTC and other coins showing completely different trends. The expectation of an interest rate cut has also driven BTC to set a new historical high of 126,200, which is a known fact. Since it first set a new high before the correction, we can only define this trend as a correction from a new high, not a turning point between bull and bear markets. As for other coins, you can consider them as turning points between bull and bear markets, as the expectation of an interest rate cut has not ended their downward trend, and the current price levels are getting lower. This indirectly indicates that there is too much capital accumulating in BTC, and the altcoin season that everyone wants will not come; do not hold onto any illusions. Especially since I have been discussing this theory since the beginning of the year, many coin friends still hold DOGE, which has now developed into this state. If you come to ask me for a proper solution, what can I do?
Some users still hold DOGE at 0.35, and there are ancient coin friends still stationed in the 0.5-0.6 range. Unless you have strong conviction, based on the allocation of funds, DOGE has already been abandoned as a coin. You can end your self-comforting mentality; switching investments and accepting reality is your option. The depth of this correction indeed carries significant risks, but it also comes with opportunities; it can be said that whether you can maintain a profitable state before the end of the year depends on this layout. One thing that can be observed is that we are in a short-term downward phase, and the buying power below 100,000 for Bitcoin is extremely strong. If you do not consider the risks in the short term and your positions are sufficient, this will be your best option for bottom fishing. This morning's opening saw Bitcoin's ETF trading volume directly exceed one billion dollars; such a volume of capital entering can indicate the direction for the future. If you still have certain expectations for BTC, buying below 100,000 can bring stable returns.
The several coins I suggest, you can review, aside from BTC; Ethereum, SOL, BNB, and OKB. The most unstable is OKB, as the article regarding the Hong Kong license has led OKB to seek entry into the international market, with only Singapore as an option. Currently, it seems that Singapore is unlikely to work for OKB. Therefore, the upgrade of OKB can currently be termed a failed option, but there is still an opportunity for upward movement, especially after surpassing 200, the hope remains significant. It depends on how OK's ecosystem is laid out; the potential is strong. Among all coins, BNB has always been strong; this platform token tests your trust in the platform. If you trust the platform, you can buy it. What makes me uneasy about BNB is that I cannot predict the value of the first platform's token in the coin circle; where exactly is it? My faith in platforms has never been strong, and at this stage, for BNB, I definitely will not choose to buy above 1,000, as the bubble is somewhat too large.
Ethereum and SOL can basically be considered as one. This year, the coin I have been most optimistic about has always been SOL, while Ethereum was the coin I was optimistic about last year, and its explosive period has already passed. In terms of re-investment, my focus will still return to SOL. In this decline, SOL's performance has actually been quite good, not reaching the previous low point of 141, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have both pierced through, and the depth below can be said to have reached an unpredictable state. The decline of SOL this time is largely attributed to the SEC's stagnation in the listing review for the coin circle. This can be considered an irresistible force and is the only event that exceeded my expectations. When this standstill will end depends on the choices made by the U.S. The standstill will have a certain impact on the entire financial market. From the performance, it is indeed not easy for SOL to maintain its current price, which is also a strong support for future listing expectations. At this stage, spot trading can be used for replenishing positions and bottom fishing.
In summary: For contract users, the short-term trend is to move around the downward path, and it is understandable to look for high positions to short. The current approach is to short when Bitcoin rises by 1,000-2,000 points daily, and Ethereum by 50-100 points, using a 24-hour timeframe. For spot users, if you do not consider shorting, the only path is to replenish positions. I tend to suggest that you short in the short term; the short-term repair is unlikely to bring the market back on track. From the daily chart, the entire downward range is completely open. If you are looking for support positions, Bitcoin is currently around 98,000, and I estimate that this point will still break. Regarding the inflow of funds from the interest rate cut, the coin circle will not be the primary choice; the inflow will mostly focus on U.S. stocks and gold. If you want the coin circle to rise again, you can only wait. If you invest in the coin circle on an annual basis, there will definitely be a bull market before Trump leaves office. Spot users must remain calm; the current losses are for future profits. As for specific entry points, please primarily ask me; there are channels for you to find your own methods. I remind everyone that BTC's market value has already dropped by one-third, and over a trillion in market value has quietly flowed out!
Original creation by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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