Polymarket bettors currently believe that the probability of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a pardon this year is 12%. This follows Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) receiving a pardon earlier this week.
Polymarket's odds on "Who will Trump pardon in 2025" show that SBF's chances of receiving a pardon rose from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours. The market has seen a total betting amount exceeding $6.5 million, with $302,090 specifically wagered on the convicted crypto fraudster.
Another market regarding whether SBF will be "released" in 2025 saw the probability increase from 4.3% to 19.1%, before dropping back to 15.5%.
Although SBF has appealed to reduce his 25-year sentence, no significant progress is expected before the end of this year, meaning that a pardon from Trump may be his only realistic way to be released before January next year.
Following CZ's pardon, discussions arose about whether SBF should receive the same treatment, but many oppose this idea.
Many have compared the severity of the crimes committed by the two, pointing out that CZ violated U.S. anti-money laundering laws by allowing illegal funds to circulate through Binance, while SBF was convicted of fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering for misappropriating billions of dollars in customer funds.
CZ was sentenced to four months in prison, while SBF was sentenced to 25 years last year.
Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky stated that he would be "extremely shocked" if the Trump administration pardoned SBF. He also noted that SBF was a "super donor to the Democratic Party" until FTX suddenly collapsed in November 2022.
"His name is both a joke and a curse in Washington, D.C., and no serious person wants that to happen."
Sasha Hodder, founder of the crypto law firm Hodder Law, pointed out that CZ's crimes are far less severe than those of SBF or former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon.
"Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ has not been accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance is a legitimate exchange, and withdrawals have always functioned normally. His 'crimes' are only related to compliance issues, not moral crimes."
Regarding the pardon issue, Trump stated that someone told him CZ's actions "aren't even considered a crime" and claimed he is "being persecuted by the Biden administration."
CZ is a significant supporter of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial cryptocurrency platform.
Related: EU sanctions Russian A7A5 stablecoins and cryptocurrency exchanges
Original: “Polymarket Bets on Sam Bankman-Fried's Pardon Odds Soar to 12%”
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