The financial reports of tech giants serve as a mirror, reflecting not only the health of the companies themselves but also the shifts in global capital flows and risk preferences. This week, the U.S. stock market is experiencing a "super earnings week," with major tech companies like Tesla, Intel, and Amazon releasing their performance results, effectively becoming a barometer for global risk assets.
Tesla's third-quarter earnings report, released on the morning of October 23, shows that while revenue reached a record $28.1 billion, net profit plummeted 37% year-on-year, and adjusted earnings per share fell short of expectations. This data triggered a nearly 1% drop in after-hours stock prices, as the market expressed concerns about the electric vehicle giant's ambitious AI and robotics vision facing the harsh realities of the automotive industry.
1. Overview of Earnings Week
This week, the U.S. stock market is welcoming a series of heavyweight tech companies' earnings reports, which are seen as a key event influencing the trends of global risk assets.
● According to financial media statistics, Netflix and Texas Instruments released their earnings reports on October 21, while Tesla, IBM, Corning, and KLA announced their results on October 22.
● Following closely, Amazon and Intel disclosed their financial data on October 23. The views of these companies on the changes in capital expenditures of major cloud service providers and their predictions for AI investment returns are closely watched by global investors.
Company
Earnings Status/Date
Core Performance Overview
Market Expectations and Outlook
Stock Price Reaction/Market Focus
Microsoft (MSFT)
Released (Q3 FY2025)
Revenue of $70.07 billion (up 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations)
AI services significantly contributed to Azure's growth. The company expects Azure's growth rate to reach 34%-35% next quarter.
Stock price surged after earnings report, with strong market confidence in AI-driven growth.
Net profit of $25.82 billion (up 17.7% year-on-year)
Intelligent cloud revenue of $26.75 billion (up 21% year-on-year), with Azure growth of 33%
Tesla (TSLA)
Released (Q3 FY2025)
Revenue of $28.1 billion (up 12% year-on-year, exceeding expectations)
Profit decline mainly due to electric vehicle price cuts and a significant increase in operating expenses. The market is concerned about whether demand can be sustained after the expiration of tax credit policies.
Stock price fell over 3% in after-hours trading. Investors are focused on its AI, Robotaxi strategy, and new product plans.
Net profit of $1.37 billion (down 37% year-on-year)
Vehicle deliveries of 497,000 (a record high)
Apple (AAPL)
Expected to release on October 30
The market expects revenue and earnings per share to exceed consensus expectations.
Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating, expecting strong demand for the iPhone 17 series and resilience in the services business.
Market is focused on the actual sales performance of the iPhone 17 and the company's guidance on future demand.
Amazon (AMZN)
Expected to release on October 29
The market expects revenue to be at the upper limit of the company's guidance, with a year-on-year increase of about 11.83%.
Citi expects performance to outperform expectations. The focus is on the growth of AWS cloud business under AI demand and the support of high-margin advertising business for profits.
The market is concerned that AWS's capital expenditures and depreciation may suppress short-term profit margins.
Google (GOOGL)
Upcoming release
The market expects revenue of $86 billion and earnings per share of $2.17.
Bank of America raised its target price to $280, optimistic that a rebound in advertising spending will offset some of the decline in search traffic.
Management's outlook for the fourth quarter will be key to influencing short-term stock prices.
Meta (META)
Released Q3 outlook (July)
Previously provided Q3 revenue outlook exceeded expectations.
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Source: AiCoin整理
● The U.S. federal government has delayed the release of the September CPI (Consumer Price Index) due to a shutdown, which is now confirmed to be published on October 24. Coupled with the dense earnings reports, this week has become a critical juncture for the market.
Analysts point out that although the main U.S. stock indices rose overall last week, there were multiple instances of severe fluctuations during the day, with market sentiment oscillating between optimism and caution, making short-term trading increasingly difficult.
2. Tesla's Performance
Among the tech giants that have released earnings reports, Tesla's performance is particularly noteworthy. The company's third-quarter earnings report, released on the morning of October 23 Beijing time, shows
Its revenue grew 12% year-on-year to $28.1 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $26.3 billion.
However, this report hides a profound crisis. Tesla's net profit plummeted 37% in the third quarter, falling from $2.17 billion in the same period last year to $1.37 billion.
The adjusted earnings per share were 50 cents, which not only fell short of Wall Street's expectation of 54 cents but also represented a year-on-year decline of 31%.
The main reasons for this predicament include falling electric vehicle prices and a significant 50% increase in operating expenses. Tesla stated that part of the increase in operating expenses was due to investments in artificial intelligence and "other R&D projects."
By the end of the third quarter, Tesla's regulatory credit revenue unexpectedly fell 44%, from $739 million to $417 million, further squeezing profit margins.
3. AI Narrative vs. Reality
A thought-provoking phenomenon in Tesla's earnings report is that despite the company's emphasis on future visions such as artificial intelligence, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot Optimus, the capital market seems to be losing patience. Tesla's stock price fell nearly 1% in after-hours trading following the earnings report.
● CFRA senior equity research analyst Garrett Nelson stated, "We are entering a period filled with questions about Tesla's near-term and mid-term profit growth trajectory."
● SLC Management managing director Dec Mullarkey bluntly remarked, "There isn't much here to excite investors. Tesla's earnings and profit margins remain below average and may stagnate for a while."
The market is expressing concerns about Tesla's growth narrative.
● On one hand, the fully autonomous driving system based on AI supercomputing is progressing slowly—Tesla's CFO revealed that only 12% of Tesla's current fleet are customers paying for FSD Supervised fees.
● On the other hand, Tesla's biggest growth engine is not from the automotive business but from its power generation and storage business—this segment's revenue surged 44% to $3.42 billion.
4. Outlook for Other Tech Giants
Beyond Tesla, the performance and outlook of other tech giants are also stirring market nerves.
● Microsoft is performing strongly in AI and cloud business, expecting its Q1 FY2026 revenue to reach $77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%.
Bank of America Securities reiterated its "buy" rating on Microsoft and set a target price of $640, noting that increased confidence in higher capital expenditures is a driver for future earnings.
● Intel has reached an "epic" partnership with Nvidia, receiving a $5 billion investment from the latter, and Intel's stock price has risen a cumulative 53.09% since the announcement.
Additionally, Intel also secured an $8.9 billion investment from the U.S. government, highlighting its strategic position in the chip industry.
● Google is set to release its third-quarter earnings on October 29, and Bank of America has published a report reiterating its "buy" rating on Google, raising the target price from $252 to $280.
Bank of America expects Google's third-quarter earnings to exceed market expectations, with revenue projected at $86 billion and a year-on-year growth rate for the search business expected to be 12%, higher than the market's expectation of 11%.
5. Transmission to the Crypto Market
The impact of tech stock earnings on the crypto market mainly manifests in four dimensions:
● Transmission of Risk Sentiment. The performance of tech giants' earnings directly affects market risk preferences, which in turn transmits to the crypto market. Historical data from AiCoin shows that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index averages 0.75.
In the second quarter of 2020, the better-than-expected earnings reports from Apple and Microsoft drove the Nasdaq up 6.8%, while Bitcoin surged 20%, breaking the $10,000 mark.
● Intersection of AI and Blockchain. The AI investments of tech giants may have potential synergies with blockchain infrastructure. By 2025, the AI investments of the seven major tech giants are expected to reach $331 billion, potentially driving the construction of blockchain infrastructure, such as on-chain AI models and decentralized computing markets.
● Changes in Liquidity Expectations. Strong economic and earnings data may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, tightening liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets. Conversely, weak data may reinforce expectations for rate cuts. Currently, there is a general consensus that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut rates at the end of this month.
● Competition for Capital Flows. When the earnings season for U.S. stocks performs exceptionally well, it may attract global capital to concentrate on allocation, thereby temporarily weakening the appeal of the crypto market. Conversely, if U.S. stocks perform poorly, some capital may seek alternative investment channels such as the crypto market.
6. Risks and Opportunities
During this earnings week, investors need to be cautious of several potential risks.
● The gap between high valuations of tech stocks and actual performance. Taking Tesla as an example, the market's divergence between its long-term narrative of AI and robotics and the current decline in automotive manufacturing performance is increasingly widening.
● Uncertainty in macroeconomic policies. Although the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is high, the September CPI data has been delayed until October 24 due to the government shutdown, which may bring unexpected volatility. Wells Fargo estimates that due to rising oil prices, the year-on-year increase in the September CPI will rise from 2.9% in August to 3.1%, setting a new 16-month high.
● Semiconductor tariff policies. The semiconductor tariff policies of the Trump administration may increase chip costs, affecting Bitcoin mining hardware and blockchain infrastructure. The earnings reports from Intel, Broadcom, and Nvidia will reflect supply chain pressures, potentially raising the costs of Bitcoin mining hardware and blockchain servers.
Investors should closely monitor two major dynamics:
● The return on AI investments by tech giants. Whether the massive investments by companies like Microsoft and Google in AI can translate into tangible performance growth will influence market confidence in the tech sector and the entire risk asset class.
● The Federal Reserve's policy path and macroeconomic data. The September CPI data to be released this Friday, along with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the end of the month, will provide clearer direction for market liquidity expectations.
Historically, tech stock earnings have often served as catalysts for turning points in the crypto market: in 2020, strong performances from Microsoft and Apple propelled Bitcoin above $10,000; in 2022, Meta's weak results triggered significant declines in both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.
As more tech giants release their earnings reports, the high correlation coefficient of up to 0.75 between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index will once again be put to the test.
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