Key Points:
Multiple analysts believe that the ongoing pullback in gold may trigger a rebound in Bitcoin.
According to technical analysis, Bitcoin could still rise to $150,000 to $165,000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of bottoming out, while the rally of its benchmark asset, gold (XAU), appears increasingly excessive.
After gold reached a historic high of about $4,380 per ounce on Friday, its rally seems to have stalled, with prices dropping 2.90% from the peak. Nevertheless, gold has accumulated a rise of over 62.25% year-to-date.
Over the past month, the daily relative strength index (RSI) for gold has remained above 70, indicating that the asset is in the overbought territory, posing a risk of profit-taking.
During the gold adjustment period, Bitcoin has risen nearly 4%, rebounding from a nearly four-month low of about $103,535. Bitcoin's RSI has also dropped to its lowest level since April, forming a bottom structure that previously triggered a rebound of over 60%.
Some analysts believe that this performance, which is contrary to the trend of gold, indicates that Bitcoin's price is bottoming out.
Analyst Pat stated that Bitcoin is approaching a "generational bottom," citing Bitcoin's performance relative to gold over the past four years.
Analysis shows that the Bitcoin/gold ratio has significantly dipped, reaching levels historically associated with market bottoms, the last occurrences being in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Each time this happened, Bitcoin recorded gains of 100% to 600%.
As of mid-October, according to relevant data, this ratio has once again fallen below -2.5, indicating that Bitcoin may be undervalued compared to gold after it reached a new high of $4,380. This could signal the start of a new bull market for Bitcoin.
Analyst Alex Wacy noted that the current pullback in gold is similar to the peak in 2020, when Bitcoin was also in a local bottoming phase. The key question now is whether gold will once again trigger a bullish reversal for Bitcoin.
Contrary to the growing belief that gold's record rise may be cooling off, HSBC has doubled down on its bullish outlook, predicting that the precious metal could climb to $5,000 per ounce by 2026.
The bank's bullish outlook is based on geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weakening dollar, which it claims will keep demand strong.
Unlike previous rallies, this one is expected to be driven by long-term investors seeking portfolio stability rather than short-term speculation.
Gold's rise in 2025 has experienced several overbought pullbacks, but each decline has led to higher prices.
This pattern reflects sustained investor confidence amid geopolitical and monetary uncertainty, which HSBC says will sustain the rally into 2026.
The outlook for Bitcoin remains very optimistic, with JPMorgan analysts predicting that BTC will reach $165,000 by 2025, believing it is still undervalued relative to gold.
Analyst Charles Edwards pointed out that if Bitcoin breaks through $120,000, the price is likely to quickly surge to $150,000.
Related: Dogecoin price expected to rise 25% after Musk posts about DOGE
Original: “Can Bitcoin Recover as Gold Plunges from Record Highs? Analysts Weigh In”
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