Patience is greater than opportunity, luck is greater than expertise, FOMO = suicide.

Author: BruceLLBlue

Recently, Twitter has been buzzing with a wave of Chinese KOLs showcasing their "earnings over the past year": millions, tens of millions, 102.4 billion (don’t run away from the joke)…… After reading, all I can say is, impressive! But as a former head of VC investments (GP, General Partner), I just want to complain: after a few years as a Crypto VC, I lost tens of millions of dollars. This isn’t just casual talk; it’s a genuine tale of blood and tears, with over 55 investments in 3 years, 27 of which were losses (including rugs), and 15 went to zero, while also investing in 9 relatively leading VCs.

All NFT-related projects have completely failed, with GameFi rugs at 33%, and Infra is a disaster zone, with many projects left with only 10%-20% of their valuation. KOLs flaunting their income and esteemed Crypto traders, congratulations on catching the secondary windfall; what about ordinary VCs focused on primary investments? They are left licking the project parties; unlocking takes 3-4 years, and the result is often "invested too early, invested correctly, but can’t exit." Why show losses instead? Because this isn’t about crying poor; it’s a wake-up call. Being a Crypto VC is inherently difficult; bear markets can be deadly, and bull markets often lead to being "harvested" by project parties. However, I believe that in this new cycle, continuing to be a VC (or evolving it) may not be the best timing. Although institutional capital is entering, regulations are clearer, and AI + on-chain tools are reshaping exit paths, I think there are better ways and paths to realize self-worth. I share my painful lessons for everyone’s mutual encouragement.

1️⃣ Lesson One: The Naked Truth of Statistics, the Reality of a 55 Deal "Win Rate"

From joining Crypto VC in August 2022 to leaving in July 2025, I personally handled 55 direct investments + invested in 9 funds.

Rugs accounted for 14/55 (25.45%): The disaster zone was NFT projects, all went to zero. One "star project" backed by a major IP was initially booming in early NFTs, but the team had shallow Web3 experience, and the founder, a top celebrity, showed little interest in issuing tokens. After core members left, it soft rug pulled; another "music + Web3" project, after years of work from a giant, achieved nothing and quietly fizzled out. There was also a Dex project’s "executive entrepreneurial dream": the founder had the team do black work while pocketing the income, and core employees ran away; several "potential stocks" from a university lab basically all failed.

Losses accounted for 28/55 (50.1%): One GameFi project launched at 5x and then fell apart (remaining 20% of cost, down 99%); another GameFi project from a "North American big factory background team" peaked at 12x, now only 10% of cost; another GameFi project was heavily impacted by a CEX's Launchpad, leading to significant selling pressure, and it directly failed to gain traction. The Infra sector was even worse: no breakthroughs in ecology, no innovation in technology, after the hype, many were left with only 10% of their cost; if hedging wasn’t done in time, it would be a total loss; additionally, a MOVE ecosystem socialfi project collapsed right before the 2024 bull market.

What about the fund investments (FoF, fund of funds)? I invested in 9 leading European and American funds like @hackvc @Maven11Capital @FigmentCapital @IOSGVC @BanklessVC; these funds basically participated in early investments of very well-known projects in this cycle, such as @eigenlayer @babylonlabsio @MorphoLabs @movementlabsxyz @ionet @altlayer @MYXFinance @solayerlabs @ethsign @0Glabs @berachain @initia @stable @monad @etherfi @breviszk @SentientAGI. On paper, it looks decent with 2-3x returns, seemingly respectable, but the actual DPI (Distributed Paid In) is estimated to be only 1-1.5x. Why such expectations? The main reasons are the slow unlocking of projects and poor market liquidity; if a bear market or a collapse like FTX occurs, the positions can instantly plummet.

2️⃣ Lesson Two: The Depth of Pits, the Depth of Human Nature — Several Heart-Wrenching Cases

The most painful is the "people investment" failures: a Dex project, where the founder appeared to have the halo of a CEX executive but actually outsourced black work, pocketing the income; GameFi's "North American big factory dream," which peaked at 12x and then continuously declined, never recovering. A project from a founder of @0xPolygon in the Infra space has seen no ecological breakthroughs, with only 15% of the investment remaining; several hot Infra projects launched on the Korean giants (Upbit and Bithumb) and then plummeted, never rising again. There was even a "music NFT" project, where the founder was a Tencent Music executive, who after a few years soft rug pulled, achieving nothing.

VCs in the Chinese-speaking region suffer more: language/thinking patterns/resources are inherently disadvantages; the playbook of European and American funds is fundamentally different. They compete on scale to earn management fees, while we are shortsighted with Quick Flips and Paper hands. After well-known projects raise huge amounts of capital, they seek global outsourcing to implement their roadmap (I’ve encountered a few; as long as the money is sufficient, it’s fine), while founders only need to manage the community and raise funds. What about VCs? The weakest group, with some project parties dumping tokens through airdrops, trading via USB drives and Korean exchanges (pumping the price to the target before sharing profits, which is why Korean exchanges often see opening premiums), investors have no way to verify. Every VC thinks they are impressive; checking the IRR and DPI of these funds shows it’s better to do fixed deposits in USDT/USDC.

3️⃣ Lesson Three: After Losing So Much, I Learned the Evolution of "Exit is King"

Being a VC is truly difficult; you have to survive bear markets, gamble on human nature, see through human behavior, and wait for token unlocks without holding any coins, cycling every 3-4 years. If you don’t hedge or manage liquidity in the secondary market, achieving excess returns is nearly impossible. From my summary, most projects that achieved excess returns were invested in during the late 2022-2023 period after the FTX collapse, primarily because: project valuations were low, founders had strong beliefs, and the timing of investment was right (projects had enough time to explore and could conduct TGE early when the bull market arrived). Why did other projects perform poorly or lose money? The main reasons are simply: either too expensive, too early, or misaligned unlocking.

Reflecting carefully, these are valuable experiences! Moreover, now that $BTC is continuously hitting new highs, traditional giants and Wall Street are rushing in, the window for ordinary people to get rich is slowly narrowing, and institutional investment returns are aligning more with Web2 venture capital (it’s hard to return to the wild growth era before 2021).

The new generation of investors: they may not necessarily be VCs; they could be individual angel investors or super KOLs who, through their influence and resources, can often secure better unlocking terms and more favorable pricing than VCs. Furthermore, it’s not just about investing early and correctly; it’s about capturing the entire chain: primary + secondary + options/convertible bonds + airdrop interactions + market-making hedging + DeFi arbitrage. In fact, there is a serious cognitive dissonance and difference between the East and West, which is essentially a gold mine for arbitrage.

🔵 Turning to the Keyboard, the Dignified Path of Content Output Alpha

Losing tens of millions during my Crypto VC years has made me realize one thing: constantly licking project parties, enduring token unlocks, and gambling on human nature leads to the humble label of a "VC dog" and the buried grievances of backers, while project parties can airdrop and secretly dump, leaving investors helpless. Enough! Now, I choose to turn around and start writing articles: relying on daily keyboard work, outputting industry insights and alpha insights, no longer entangled in waiting for project unlocks, but directly laying out strategies and capturing project opportunities. Compared to the passive waiting of VCs, this path is more dignified, freely outputting value, with compounding being the trust and shares from readers.

Ultimately, through these years of experience, I finally understand: patience > opportunity, luck > expertise, FOMO = suicide.

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