Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The latest economic data released by the United States showed strong performance, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and a decrease in the number of initial jobless claims. This has increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, leading to a cooling of market expectations for a rate cut in October. As a result, the three major U.S. stock indices have fallen for three consecutive days, marking the longest losing streak in a month, and completely reversing the gains made after the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Meanwhile, yields on major U.S. Treasury maturities have risen, with the interest rate-sensitive 2-year yield increasing by 4.5 basis points. The dollar has strengthened for two consecutive days, reaching a three-week high, with the USD/JPY exchange rate approaching 150. Additionally, the issue of the Federal Reserve's independence has garnered widespread attention, as the Supreme Court is set to rule on whether President Trump can dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos pointed out that this case could severely undermine the central bank's independence. Economist Kenneth Rogoff described this scenario as a "nightmare" and warned that a loss of Federal Reserve independence would lead to rising long-term interest rates.

The Bitcoin market has recently come under pressure, with prices falling below $109,000 and hitting a four-week low of $108,700, below the key support level of $112,000. On-chain analysis firm Glassnode noted that long-term holders have realized profits of 3.4 million Bitcoins, while ETF inflows have slowed, suggesting the market may be entering a "fatigue period." Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, stated that if Bitcoin prices fall further to $107,500, it could trigger stop-loss selling. Additionally, net unrealized profits for short-term holders are close to zero, which may lead to liquidation pressure. Crypto_Jobs cautioned investors to be wary of prices below $107,000; if breached, Bitcoin could drop to the $98,000 to $100,000 range. Despite this, market sentiment is not entirely pessimistic. MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor expects Bitcoin to rise in the fourth quarter, while Chicken Genius believes the current price of $109,000 is a good accumulation point, but also considers $104,000 worth further investment. The market is highly focused on the $4.656 billion Bitcoin options contracts expiring this Friday, which is the first major expiration date since the Federal Reserve's September meeting and could trigger significant volatility. Additionally, Hyblock data shows that leveraged long positions from $111,000 to $107,000 are in a liquidation risk zone, which may further increase selling pressure, but spot buyers are accelerating accumulation, with the order book showing more buy orders than sell orders, indicating increased demand.

Ethereum has also shown weak performance recently, with prices dropping to $3,813 during the day, marking a seven-week low. The current price has reached the cost line of Bitmine, which holds 2.416 million ETH, and is only about $200 away from the cost price of $3,603 held by SharpLink Gaming, which has 838,000 ETH. Technical analysis indicates that Ethereum's daily chart has confirmed a breakdown of the symmetrical triangle pattern, which is a bearish reversal signal following a strong uptrend. The short-term target points to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of $3,595; if selling intensifies, prices may further drop to the VPVR volume distribution range of $3,400 to $3,600, while also touching the 200-day EMA near $3,392. Analyst Ted pointed out that Ethereum's key support level is $3,822; if breached, the next target is in the $3,700 to $3,750 range. Resistance is at $3,960 to $4,000, and breaking this range would be the first bullish signal. Kamran Azghar expects prices to rebound to $4,900 or higher after reaching the key demand zone of $3,600, while Cold Blood Shiller emphasized that prices are testing the key horizontal support zone of $3,800 to $4,000. Ash Crypto believes that Ethereum may rebound after briefly touching the $3,500 to $3,600 range and could set a new all-time high by the end of October. Meanwhile, Mechanism Capital partner Andrew Kang has adopted a bearish strategy, having bought a large number of short-term put options on ETH, betting that prices will fall to the $3,000 range.

The altcoin market is generally underperforming, but some projects still show highlights. Analyst Ted noted that Solana's key support level is between $193 and $195; if breached, it may drop to the $185 to $188 range. Resistance is at the psychological level of $200 and around $208 to $210, and breaking through could push prices further up to $216 to $220. The newly launched project XPL has performed excellently, soaring from $0.1 to a high of $1.5 after its listing on Binance, currently hovering around $1.3. The deposit airdrop event jointly held by Binance and Plasma has distributed rewards, with a single account that fills $100,000 receiving 11,489 XPL, worth approximately $8,513 at the current price. Data shows that three addresses bought over $22 million worth of XPL tokens this morning. Additionally, the recently popular Aster has fallen with the market, dropping 17% within 24 hours to a current price of $1.8, with James Wynn's ASTER long position being liquidated, resulting in a loss of $4,023.73. Previously, the Aster exchange experienced a system glitch that caused the XPL contract price to spike to $4, and the official has completed compensation for all affected users, assuring the safety of user funds.

2. Key Data (as of September 26, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $109,181 (YTD +16.57%), daily spot trading volume $68.454 billion

• Ethereum: $3,928.99 (YTD +17.33%), daily spot trading volume $55.767 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 32 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.11 sat/vB, ETH: 0.19 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.2%, ETH 12.7%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XPL, XRP, ETH, BTC, AVNT

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.99%/51.01%

• Sector performance: Gamefi sector down 4.89%, SocialFi sector down 3.78%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 227,621 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $975 million, including $247 million in BTC, $312 million in ETH, and $72.68 million in SOL.

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($116,170.70), lower line ($113,870.29)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($4,533.24), lower line ($4,443.47)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of September 25)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$258 million, BlackRock IBIT saw net inflows against the trend

• Ethereum ETF: -$251 million, with outflows for four consecutive days

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance will delist NEIROETH/USDT U-based perpetual contracts on September 26

• OKX will delist multiple perpetual contracts including MAJORUSDT and ARCUSDT on September 26

• Binance will list Mira (MIRA) on September 26

• Binance Alpha and contracts will list Hana Network (HANA)

• Binance Alpha will list LIGHT and GOATED projects on September 27

• Sahara AI (SAHARA) will unlock approximately 134 million tokens at 8 PM on September 26, accounting for 6.08% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $11.4 million;

The largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Story down 26.4%, Aster down 17.2%, Avalanche down 11%, Ether.fi down 9.6%, Immutable down 8.5%.

5. Hot News

• Three addresses bought over $22 million worth of XPL tokens

• AlphaTON Capital completes $71 million financing and acquires its first batch of TON

• Plasma confirms that users participating in the ICO pre-storage plan received an airdrop of XPL worth approximately $8,390

• Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke deposits 1,000 ETH worth $4 million into Kraken

• Whale that purchased 50 million USDC during Plasma's initial staking received XPL worth approximately $40.56 million

• Public company Hyperion DeFi increases its holdings by approximately 176,400 HYPE, with total holdings exceeding 1.71 million

• Robinhood US will list WLFI

• Public company ETHZilla plans to deploy approximately $47 million in Ethereum to enhance reserve returns

• Public company Caliber invests $4 million to increase its LINK token holdings, raising total holdings to $10.1 million

• French investment company Melanion plans to raise €50 million, all to be used for purchasing Bitcoin

• ETH price reaches BitMNR cost line, $400 away from SharpLink cost line of $3,603

• M2 Capital invests $20 million in Ethena governance token ENA

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