Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, with Chairman Powell noting that although inflation is slightly high, the downside risks in the job market have increased. The change in risk balance prompted this "risk management" rate cut, and it is expected that there may be two more cuts within the year. This dovish stance has driven the three major U.S. stock indices and small-cap indices to collectively close at historical highs for the first time in nearly four years. JPMorgan, led by Andrew Taylor's trading team, believes this rate cut supports the bulls and advises investors to "buy on dips," anchoring future upward momentum on October's non-farm payroll and inflation data, suggesting that if the data is favorable, U.S. stocks may see a "breakout rally."

Meanwhile, a grand industrial policy orchestrated by the Trump team has surfaced, planning to utilize a $550 billion U.S.-Japan trade fund for government-led investments in key areas such as semiconductors, energy, and quantum computing to reshape U.S. manufacturing. Against this backdrop, the alliances among industry giants are becoming increasingly noteworthy, with AI leader Nvidia announcing a $5 billion investment in rival Intel and establishing a historic partnership to jointly develop customized CPUs. This move is seen as a significant boon for the struggling Intel, which has also received support from the U.S. government, now a major shareholder.

Driven by the overall market sentiment warming, Bitcoin's price has steadily climbed, approaching the critical $118,000 mark. Several analysts believe Bitcoin is at a decisive breakout point. Analysts Michaël van de Poppe and Daan Crypto Trades view $118,000 as the most important fortress for the bulls to conquer, believing that once this high trading volume area is successfully turned into support, the price will "quickly visit" historical highs. Analyst Murphy has set three major conditions for a new high: a closing price above $117,000, a short-term holder adjusted price deviation (STH-RPDZ) exceeding +1 standard deviation, and synchronized amplification of ETF net inflows and spot exposure. The market is gradually meeting these conditions, and analyst Axel Adler Jr. assesses that based on market sentiment indicators and strong ETF fund inflows (with a net inflow of $2.8 billion since September 9), the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a historical high in the next two weeks is as high as 70%. However, there are also cautious voices in the market, with AlphaBTC warning that a drop below the $114,000 support could trigger a longer adjustment period, while Material Indicators suggest that the current liquidity structure resembles a short-term "exit rally" rather than a solid accumulation.

Despite Bitcoin attracting most of the market's attention, significant changes are brewing within the Ethereum ecosystem. The CEO of Consensys has clearly stated that the highly popular wallet application MetaMask will soon launch its token, and the speed may be "faster than expected." Prior to this, MetaMask officially launched its stablecoin MetaMask USD (mUSD) on September 15.

Recently, Solana's performance has been particularly outstanding. According to analyst Rekt Capital, the SOL price has successfully broken through the macro downtrend line and has risen above $250, reaching a nearly 8-month high. Currently, SOL is testing the key monthly resistance level of $238 on a weekly basis and is converting it into a support level. This test is crucial for pushing SOL to set a new historical high in the future. Its strong upward momentum is primarily driven by companies adopting it as a reserve asset, with corporate holdings of SOL exceeding 17 million coins, totaling a value of $4.3 billion. Although on-chain leverage demand is relatively weak, the options market is performing optimistically, and the SEC's approval of a multi-asset crypto ETF including SOL has further heightened market expectations for a future independent SOL ETF.

In addition, other projects are also dynamically emerging. After CZ changed his social media account, and the community suspected his return to Binance, BNB continued to rise, breaking through the $1,000 mark, with a market capitalization surpassing well-known companies like BYD and Pfizer, ranking 155th globally in asset market capitalization; Trust Wallet (TWT) announced a new economic model covering scenarios such as staking rewards and fee discounts, after which Binance founder Zhao Changpeng retweeted related posts, stating that the TWT token was initially just an experiment, and its use case is gradually expanding. Currently, the TWT token price is $1.18, with a 24-hour increase of 52%, peaking at $1.33; last night at 22:30, SBF's X account reportedly showed unusual activity, suddenly following a large number of users, attracting market attention. As a result, the FTT price briefly broke through 1.2 USDT but has since fallen back to $0.98, with the increase narrowing to 21%.

2. Key Data (as of September 19, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $117,043 (YTD +24.8%), daily spot trading volume $37.588 billion

• Ethereum: $4,551.45 (YTD +35.85%), daily spot trading volume $27.601 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 52 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.11 sat/vB, ETH: 0.19 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 57.7%, ETH 13.74%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, DOGE, BTC, ETH, SOL

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.56%/50.44%

• Sector performance: GameFi up 2.94%, L2 up 2.21%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 100,627 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $208 million, including $16.44 million in BTC, $49.35 million in ETH, and $16.55 million in SOL.

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($116,170.70), lower line ($113,870.29)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($4,558.94), lower line ($4,468.66)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of September 18)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$163 million, with no net outflows from twelve ETFs

• Ethereum ETF: +$213 million, with no net outflows from nine ETFs

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch Ark of Panda (AOP) on September 19, Dill (DL)

• Binance Aspecta BuildKey model TGE first phase will launch the project River (RIVER) on September 19

• Resolv: The second quarter airdrop will open for collection on September 19, and the third quarter will allocate 3% of the total token supply

• LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens at 7 PM on September 20, accounting for 8.53% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $52.5 million;

• Velo (VELO) will unlock approximately 3 billion tokens at 8 AM on September 20, accounting for 13.63% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $47.8 million;

• KAITO (KAITO) will unlock approximately 8.35 million tokens at 8 PM on September 20, accounting for 3.15% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $10.1 million.

• Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 116 million tokens at 8 AM on September 21, accounting for 6.89% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $93.4 million;

Today’s top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: Immutable up 16.4%, HTX DAO up 11.9%, NEAR Protocol up 10.9%, Avalanche up 5.2%, Bitget Token up 4.1%.

5. Hot News

• Upbit will list ETHFI, RESOLV, INIT, and SPK tokens in the BTC and USDT markets

• A certain whale is suspected of selling 20.92 million APX, worth approximately $12.3 million

• Arthur Hayes received a transfer of $1.322 million worth of ETHFI tokens from an investor allocation address at ether.fi

• Pendle's multi-signature wallet has transferred 1.2 million PENDLE back to Binance, worth approximately $6.44 million

• REX-Osprey XRP ETF's first-day trading volume reached $37.7 million, becoming the largest first-day trading volume of any listed fund this year

• Consensys CEO: The MetaMask token is coming soon, and it may be "faster than you expect"

• PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD expands to blockchains like Tron, Avalanche, and Sei through LayerZero

• BounceBit plans to use platform fees for BB buybacks

• SBF's X account showed unusual activity, and FTT subsequently surged significantly

• The Solana Foundation and Ark Invest participate in a $300 million financing for Solmate

• Brera Holdings, which completed a $300 million private placement, has been renamed Solmate and launched a SOL treasury in the UAE

• Plasma will launch its TGE on September 25

• Upbit will launch LA Korean won trading pairs, Lombard (BARD)

• Boyaa Interactive has completed a plan to purchase Bitcoin worth HKD 370 million, and the company now holds a total of 4,091 BTC

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