During the online discussion over the weekend, many readers asked about the future trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. There is particular concern about the potential arrival of a bear market and how to preemptively sell at what price to lock in profits and avoid significant price retracements or even crashes.
The characteristics of this bull market are not very obvious, so I currently cannot see clearly how to sell at high points. However, if we look at these issues from a long-term perspective (5 years, 10 years), it becomes much easier. Viewing from a long-term perspective alleviates a lot of mental entanglement and anxiety, allowing us to grasp more certain outcomes with simpler methods.
Seeing this issue, and reflecting on a series of recent events in the U.S. and globally, I believe that both crypto assets and U.S. stocks show a relatively clear trend when viewed from a long-term perspective.
In the discussion, I shared many of my views and opinions on Peter Thiel.
Following the recent Charlie Kirk shooting incident in the U.S., and the chain reactions that erupted across the U.S. and globally, I feel that some of the core issues Peter Thiel is concerned about are gradually evolving into harsh realities and are rapidly intensifying.
For example, the tearing of values, the impact of illegal immigration, the "threats" he imagines the U.S. is facing…
The prescriptions he has proposed for all these concerns, in my view, are fundamentally two:
First, the U.S. should withdraw from globalization and focus on solving internal problems;
Second, it is essential to accelerate technological solutions to these problems.
The first point goes without saying; it is currently in progress.
The second point is also developing rapidly—however, it seems that mainstream media is not discussing this much at present.
I wonder if everyone has noticed that after Trump took office, the guests he publicly and extensively summoned to the White House were not Wall Street financial elites?
No.
They were Silicon Valley tech elites.
Trump has a deep-seated hatred for the elites of Wall Street.
He is fully invested in the crypto ecosystem and has threatened to sanction banking giants… All these actions clearly show that he is significantly different from previous Democratic and Republican presidents.
The elites of Silicon Valley seem to have never frequented the White House as openly and frequently as they do today in the past two or three decades.
Some explain Trump's behavior purely from a business perspective, but I believe he has a strong sense of urgency and crisis beyond business—he is doing everything he can to engage with these tech giants.
A few days ago, a photo circulated online showing a group of tech elites around Trump—all of whom were either funded by Peter Thiel, early investments he made, or companies in which he still holds shares.
Thus, some online commentators said that the influence over the White House has shifted from Wall Street in the East to Silicon Valley in the West.
This statement is very insightful.
If we believe this, we can naturally draw a conclusion:
The driving force behind the future technological development of the U.S. will no longer solely come from market forces; state power will also significantly penetrate and participate—Palantir receiving an overwhelming number of orders from the Department of Defense is a typical example.
I believe this is just the beginning.
Therefore, over a longer period, from a long-term trend perspective, I think U.S. tech stocks will still perform quite well.
Of course, this does not mean that these stocks will only rise and never fall, nor does it mean that U.S. stocks will only experience bull markets without bear markets. Rather, it indicates that, in a broad sense, the long-term upward trend of tech stocks is quite evident.
This is not only an economic necessity but also a requirement of U.S. national strategy, as well as the only remedy proposed by Silicon Valley elites, typified by Peter Thiel, for various issues.
I previously underestimated this point.
On the other hand, although the U.S. withdrawal from globalization is an obvious trend and Europe is increasingly showing this momentum, I believe that the future world will still be impossible without communication and interaction. Regardless of how countries are politically, value-wise, and ideologically divided, they will still be interconnected in some way.
Moreover, even if the U.S. withdraws from globalization, it will still strive to maintain the hegemony of the dollar.
Crypto assets are the optimal option for addressing these issues and sustaining dollar hegemony. Whether it is Bitcoin, Ethereum, or dollar stablecoins, I believe their advantages in this regard will increasingly surpass those of gold.
Furthermore, crypto technology itself is a cutting-edge technology that the current U.S. government values highly, alongside artificial intelligence.
Therefore, if we can see this logic clearly, for crypto assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have relatively controllable risks, it might be better to simply ignore short-term fluctuations, focus on the long-term trends of 5 years or 10 years, and primarily aim for long-term stability. As long as the short-term prices are not excessively high, we should avoid selling casually. Even if there are significant retracements in the upcoming bear market, we should try to resist psychological pressure and focus on more long-term and grander benefits.
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