Author | Ben Fairbank

Translated by | Baihua Blockchain

A friend recently described the current cryptocurrency market as a "broken record"—Bitcoin and Ethereum are consolidating, and the time for altcoins to hit resistance levels feels endless, with many coins hitting resistance far more times than the usual three before confirmation or failure. If you are a newcomer, this silence can be deafening. After all the headlines about ETFs, institutional inflows, and halving cycles, why is the altcoin bull market still delayed?

Veterans who have experienced previous cycles understand that these boring periods are the times for wealth positioning, not for cashing out. For newcomers, the long wait feels eternal, while for veterans, it remains a phase of fear and panic, as they know there is little time left to complete their final position allocation. In 2017 and 2021, we witnessed funds flowing into Bitcoin, then into Ethereum, and then igniting altcoins within weeks. This time, the entire process is slower, and the participant lineup is larger. Understanding why the market is stagnant and why this is a feature rather than a flaw may determine whether you accumulate chips or hand them over to the whales in the biggest bull market of your lifetime. Your actions now will determine the final outcome.

01. Four-Year Cycle Rhythm: Why the Delay This Time?

The cryptocurrency bull market follows a highly reliable rotation pattern. Historically, it consists of four stages: Bitcoin leads, Ethereum starts to outperform, funds rotate into large-cap altcoins, and finally, the frenzied "altcoin season" pushes small-cap coins into parabolic trends. These stages typically complete within 18 months after Bitcoin's halving. I have always believed that history is the best teacher; a pattern is a pattern until it is no longer a pattern.

• In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin and most large-cap coins reached their peaks about 2-3 months earlier than now. According to Glassnode's cycle comparison, Bitcoin should have peaked by now, but it has not.
• I have repeatedly stated that the longer this takes, the higher the gains, but am I right? The only certainty in life is that no one knows the answer. However, I view this as the sinking of the Titanic, with the Titanic being today's traditional monetary system. Bitcoin and altcoins are the lifeboats, and more people than ever are seeking to board. The difference is that retail investors are the group least likely to gain safe passage. This analogy may be rough, but I find it fitting—the beauty of theory is that only time can prove right or wrong, and history tells us this is the rule.
• Proponents of the extended cycle theory point out that each bull market lasts longer than the previous one, approximately 24, 28, and 33 months, with the current cycle possibly extending to 37 months, and the next major peak could be in December 2025.
• Three key indicators to watch are: BTC dominance below 60%, ETH/BTC ratio reaching 0.058, and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. If we factor in the interest rate cut on September 17 (currently an 87% probability), it could theoretically start around September 10. Assuming the last three altcoin seasons lasted 8, 10, and 14 weeks respectively, then 14 weeks would extend to December 24 (if it starts on September 10). I predict this date because of the danger of picking a top; setting target exit prices and dates is crucial, so I set December 24 for myself, regardless of whether I am right or wrong.

Those accustomed to the adrenaline of 2017 or 2021 may find this delay frustrating, but it is also why the next market may be spectacular. We are at the best balance between complacency and optimism, the rubber band is stretched but not yet broken.

02. Signals from the Altcoin Market

The total market capitalization of all altcoins (TOTAL3) has been in a four-year compression since 2021. The chart shows a continuously rising bottom, indicating persistent buying pressure repeatedly hitting and failing to break through the upper resistance. Each hit weakens the ceiling, and when the breakout finally occurs, the movement is often violent. Some coins have hit resistance 8 times, which usually indicates that "whales are quietly boarding the lifeboat."

On-chain data also corroborates this tense atmosphere:

• 70% of the top 50 altcoins are currently outperforming Bitcoin on a monthly basis, which is a strong signal of fund rotation; numbers do not lie.
• Bitcoin's dominance has fallen below a key support level for the first time since the end of 2024, historically one of the triggers for altcoin season.
• Analysts monitoring the "OTHERS" chart (the market capitalization of all coins outside the top ten) have found it replicating the sharp recovery pattern after the decline in 2024. If Bitcoin and the S&P 500 break out together, the altcoin sector could surge to $570 billion.

But the breakout has not yet arrived. Why? Macroeconomic headwinds are suppressing risk appetite and liquidity is scarce. This is indeed true for retail investors, but we see companies like MicroStrategy converting their treasury into Bitcoin, with some also moving into Ethereum. This is a real reversal; I wonder how many more signals people need.

03. Why Are Macroeconomic Factors Pressuring the Market?

Cryptocurrency is no longer an isolated asset. Binance research shows that Bitcoin's correlation with traditional bonds has been strengthening since 2020. During the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, both Bitcoin and bond prices fell, indicating that cryptocurrencies now behave like high-beta risk assets, sensitive to liquidity conditions. This is why I say this is the last major bull market. Imagine if this bull market occurs as I suggest; it will make it impossible for everyone to ignore the crypto market, and it will become part of the mainstream.

In the first and second quarters of 2025, the bond market experienced turmoil: the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries jumped from 3.8% to nearly 4.6%, the MOVE index (bond market volatility) soared to 139, and high-yield credit spreads widened by 202 basis points. Macroeconomic driving factors include tariff uncertainty, stubborn inflation, and record government debt issuance. Binance analysts warn that ongoing macro uncertainty means range-bound trading, and a soft landing scenario could trigger a rebound. Essentially, we are waiting for a launch signal.

These headwinds force even cryptocurrency believers to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's schedule. Bitcoin has been trapped in the $102,000-$115,000 range for months; as long as it holds above $100,000, the bull market structure remains intact. This is why the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut could become a key turning point—liquidity injection could be the catalyst for the next wave. I believe that the ETH/BTC ratio does not necessarily have to reach 0.058 this time, as coins like SOL have captured more market share. The market is evolving, and our understanding must keep pace.

04. Why Does This Cycle Feel Different?

Starting Later, Bigger Stage

Glassnode data shows we are a few months behind previous cycles. Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes there is a 30% chance Bitcoin has peaked, while analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes the cycle is extending, pointing to a 37-month timeline. The divergence itself reflects the introduction of new variables: macro policies, ETFs, corporate funds, etc.

Selective Altcoin Season

Miles Deutscher's AI-driven "altcoin surge score" finds that early-cycle altcoins surged thousands of percentage points, but this time most are underperforming Bitcoin. He attributes this to tightening monetary policy, institutional preference for BTC, Ethereum's difficulty in outperforming BTC, and waning retail interest. His model waits for four signals to align: BTC dominance declining, ETH/BTC breaking out, altcoin index rising, and improved retail sentiment. When aligned, he expects a shorter and more selective rebound, focusing on real application sectors. That said, meme coins still dominate, and applications are a lagging indicator.

Market-Wide Compression

The TOTAL3 chart shows a four-year consolidation in altcoins, with altcoin dominance reaching a cycle high on August 14 but not a historical high, subsequently falling below $1.6 trillion. Technical analysis suggests that the correction may end around $1.35-$1.43 trillion, with small-cap coins potentially facing pressure before a breakout in the fourth quarter.

Evolution of Investor Behavior

In the past, altcoin seasons began with retail FOMO driven by Dogecoin clones; now they may be driven by more rational catalysts: tokenization of real-world assets, institutional ETH staking, and regulatory ETFs. Unlike the frenzy of 2021, new coin supply and regulatory scrutiny mean that rebounds may be sector-specific rather than universal.

My personal view is that the crypto market is like a dish that started with three simple ingredients; each bull market adds new ingredients, making the flavor complex and bringing unexpected changes. As an early participant, I look forward to people truly building products and companies that achieve a connection with value. At that moment, the "magic" of the crypto market may disappear. Once you enter this field, it is hard to leave, but I am growing weary of the current state and the way it is measured. I look forward to continuing to build with technology, rather than reacting to token prices and small retail investors, who rarely align with company goals.

05. Why Does It Feel So Slow?

Because this is the buildup before the spring. Altcoin seasons rarely begin during Bitcoin's price discovery phase; they usually start after Bitcoin has risen over 200% and is consolidating, with funds beginning to rotate. Yieldfund points out that altcoin seasons typically start when large-cap altcoins like Ethereum and Solana begin to outperform and Bitcoin's dominance falls below 54%.

This rotation is quietly happening: 70% of the top altcoins have outperformed BTC, Ethereum's new ETF and staking yields are attracting institutional inflows, and Bitcoin's dominance is declining. However, macro pressures have trapped prices in a narrowing range. The feeling of slowness is because the fuse is still burning. When liquidity finally returns—whether through the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the S&P 500 breaking out, or clear regulatory guidance on crypto ETFs—the compressed energy of TOTAL3 and the OTHERS index could be released in weeks rather than months.

We have all seen this situation. I wait for a flood of messages saying, "I was just about to buy, and suddenly it went up. Is it too late now? What should I buy?" The start of a bull market always catches people off guard, and the current calm will surprise many.

06. Key Observations While the Fuse Burns

• Bitcoin support and dominance: As long as BTC holds above $100,000 and dominance continues to decline, the rotation script is still in play. A breakout above 60% dominance is often the starting point for altcoin season.
• ETH/BTC ratio: A breakout in the ETH/BTC ratio will mark the second phase of rotation. Ethereum is currently strengthening due to ETF inflows and institutional adoption. Previously, it needed to reach 0.058; now it only needs to reach 0.039 (I believe this round is less critical).
• Macroeconomic catalysts: The Federal Reserve's September meeting, bond market volatility, and tariffs will determine the timing of liquidity return. Uncertainty means volatility, and clear signals trigger risk appetite.
• Altcoin indicators: Pay attention to altcoin surge score signals (Bitcoin dominance, ETH/BTC, altcoin index, retail sentiment) and signs of mid-cap coin momentum in the OTHERS chart.

07. Summary

The current calm is not a sign of market weakness but a signal of compression. Four years of altcoin consolidation, delayed cycle peaks, and macro headwinds have created tremendous potential energy. The rotation script for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins is slowly unfolding. The difference this time is the scale of participation: regulatory ETFs, corporate treasuries, real-world assets, and tens of millions more users. When the rubber band snaps, it could be the explosive rotation I hinted at, rewarding those who patiently endure the boring phase.

Don't give away your chips out of impatience. The market is quiet because the band is warming up. When the music starts, you want to have a seat, but don't forget to leave before the music stops. Greed is deadly, and fear will forever keep you from entering. Time is running out.

Original link: https://c.c1nd.cn/nisYK

Original title: Beyond the Chop, Why the Boring Phase Hides a Generational Crypto Boom

Original author: Ben Fairbank

Translation: Baihua Blockchain

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