Author: Zhou, ChainCatcher

Since last year, the Bitcoin asset strategy of the Japanese listed company Metaplanet has attracted significant attention, with its stock price peaking at over 40 times its initial value. Public information shows that the company currently holds 20,000 Bitcoins, ranking it as the sixth largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world. However, despite Bitcoin strengthening since April this year, Metaplanet's stock price has retraced over 50% since peaking in June, indicating an increasing decoupling from BTC.

Weakening Endogenous Variables in the Crypto Market

From initially being a hotel company to now holding 20,000 Bitcoins, Metaplanet has successfully implemented a "buy coins—boost stock—finance—buy coins again" model in less than two years.

In April 2024, as Bitcoin rebounded from a low, the company initiated a capital increase and convertible bond financing, purchasing its first batch of BTC; after the stock price rose, the company further increased its holdings through shareholder capital increases and low-interest loans. As of early September 2025, the company holds approximately 20,000 coins, with a crypto market value exceeding $2 billion, ranking it as the sixth largest Bitcoin treasury company (behind MicroStrategy, MARA, XXI, BitcoinStandardTreasuryCompany, and Bullish).

Additionally, the company has set a year-end target of 30,000 coins and plans to continue purchasing in September and October according to its established fundraising plan; President Simon Gerovich stated at a special shareholders' meeting that they aim to accumulate 210,000 BTC by 2027 (approximately 1% of the supply).

As of the close on September 2 (UTC+9), Metaplanet's stock price was 832 yen, down about 57% from the June peak of 1,930 yen. Based on holding 20,000 coins and BTC priced at approximately $108,000 to $111,000, the treasury's market value is about $2.16 billion to $2.22 billion, corresponding to a "market value/holding value" of approximately 1.8× (an approximate mNAV premium, not accounting for other assets/liabilities).

The divergence between stock price and coin price is not merely noise from Metaplanet's individual stock (as detailed in my article "From Dislocation to Joint Decline: The Coin-Stock Link Reaches a Crossroads") and cannot be explained simply by "deteriorating fundamentals." The key lies in the weakening of endogenous variables in the crypto market—according to SoSoValue, there was a net outflow of approximately $751 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs in August; Bitcoin funding rates have fallen from mid-July highs to near zero, with multiple instances of turning negative during this period. Marginal buying has cooled, and leverage momentum has weakened, raising the threshold for the re-coupling of BTC treasury stocks with BTC.

Survival or Drinking Poison to Quench Thirst?

Reports indicate that Metaplanet's shareholders have approved an increase in authorized shares and established terms for preferred shares, with a maximum issuance amount of approximately $3.8 billion, primarily to continue purchasing Bitcoin and expand the treasury. Preferred shares are not common in the Japanese market; while fixed dividends and liquidation priority provide funding certainty, they also imply immediate dilution and governance discounts, with the market assessing the effectiveness of this "blood replenishment" based on "whether it can translate into upward momentum."

The effectiveness of the decision does not hinge on "whether it can be successfully issued," but rather on what kind of crypto β it encounters after the funds enter the market.

According to the company's plan, it aims to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 30,000 coins by the end of this year, corresponding to three potential development paths for the future:

1) Fast Pace (β Warms Up): If Bitcoin spot ETFs show a clear return to net inflows, the company will be motivated to quickly purchase an additional 10,000 coins in September and October, with an average price roughly within the current price range. The effect would be a rapid expansion of on-paper BTC, with mNAV premiums stabilizing or even recovering; the cost would be a higher average holding price, making it more sensitive to retracements, compounded by the "rigid cost" of preferred share dividends, amplifying the downside elasticity.

2) Medium Pace (β Neutral): If Bitcoin prices primarily fluctuate in the short term, the company is more likely to buy in batches, pushing its holdings to the range of 27,000 to 30,000 coins by year-end. This approach reduces the risk of buying at high prices, but dilution and preferred share discounts would offset valuation elasticity, with the stock price likely running close to mNAV, making significant premium expansion difficult.

3) Slow Pace (β Weakens): If funds continue to flow out, making it difficult for Bitcoin prices to maintain high levels, the company's mNAV premium will continue to converge or even reverse; expectations of dilution from preferred shares/increased issuance and rising financing costs, combined with a collapse in market sentiment, would amplify the momentum for stock price declines, lowering the valuation center and potentially leading to passive deleveraging pressures.

Conclusion

In summary, while the treasury model has brought short-term growth momentum, its vulnerabilities are gradually becoming apparent against the backdrop of market volatility and macroeconomic changes. After choosing to go all-in on Bitcoin, Metaplanet's future is no longer within its own control but is instead dependent on the crypto market. As the crypto market increasingly diversifies into compliant purchasing methods, transitioning from value traps to market consensus, Metaplanet, as a path follower, may find itself in an even more challenging position.

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