Since ETH entered this round of the upward cycle, every short-term fluctuation adjustment has led the market to start spreading data about ETH unstaking. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the current demand generated by institutional consensus far exceeds the supply from unstaking, and we believe that a long-term fully loaded unstaking situation is unsustainable. Since companies like SharpLink began buying, U.S. companies holding ETH have accumulated nearly $20 billion worth of ETH, accounting for 3.39% of the total supply, with Bitmine still having 75% progress towards its goal of holding 5% of the total ETH supply. With the further implementation of crypto-friendly policies and Wall Street's consensus on the long-term value of ETH, the "buying spree" for ETH has just begun. As the interest rate cut cycle approaches, we are raising our long-term target price for ETH, believing that ETH's market capitalization will surpass BTC in 1-2 bull-bear cycles.

1. Unstaking Data

Since the Ethereum Pectra (Prague+Electra) mainnet upgrade took effect in May 2025, the theoretical unstaking rate has been capped at 256 ETH per epoch (1 epoch ≈ 6.4 minutes). This translates to a theoretical daily limit of 256 × (1440 ÷ 6.4) = 256 × 225 = 57,600 ETH per day.

Since July 18, the unstaking situation on the ETH mainnet has been in a fully loaded queue state, with currently (as of August 24) 873,849 ETH waiting to be unstaked, requiring 15 days and 4 hours to process.

The weekly unstaking limit for ETH is capped at 57,600 × 7 = 403,200 ETH, while last week ETH treasury companies bought 531,400 ETH. Even if 100% of the unstaked portion enters circulation, it can be fully absorbed under the condition that treasury companies continue to buy. We believe that the current network value of ETH has not been fully recognized by the market, and the unstaked ETH does not fully enter circulation. As consensus further develops, the fully loaded unstaking situation will also improve.

In simple terms, unstaking does not represent the complete market supply situation. Although the total amount of unstaked ETH shows a certain negative correlation with the rising ETH price, we believe that this portion of supply will not dominate the market trend of ETH turning from rising to falling.

2. Demand Analysis of Treasury Companies and ETFs

Since June 2025, when treasury companies represented by SharpLink entered the market, it has confirmed our previous speculation that the U.S. will prioritize ETH as the primary battleground for financial on-chain infrastructure (for specific content, see our publications on June 11 and July 3 titled "Why We Are Optimistic About ETH Before the Surge" and "The Storm is Coming, Market Forces Will Drive ETH to Realize Value Discovery"). The entry of institutional-level purchasing power represented by treasury companies fundamentally changes the dominant force behind ETH price fluctuations.

1. The Operating Logic of Treasury Companies - Accumulating Coins Equals Premium

The market premium (MNAV) of cryptocurrency treasury companies comes from investors' recognition of the growth potential of their purchased assets. DAT companies increase their holdings of crypto assets through financing (stock issuance or debt), creating a flywheel effect: more crypto assets → balance sheet expansion → stock price increase → more financing capacity → further accumulation. This cycle amplifies the market's optimistic expectations for coin-holding stocks, driving MNAV premiums. This flywheel effect is evidenced by the success of MicroStrategy, and ETH has some characteristics that make it more suitable as treasury assets compared to BTC.

2. What Makes ETH Treasury Companies Different - Assets Generate Income

Unlike BTC's limited asset scarcity, ETH, as the largest DeFi network in the crypto world, will naturally generate income through large-scale holdings.

1. Staking Income: Since Ethereum transitioned to a PoS mechanism after the "Merge" in 2022, it has endowed ETH with interest-bearing asset properties, while its ecosystem supports high-yield activities such as DeFi and RWA. These characteristics provide DAT with a stable cash flow source, forming the basis for "cash flow premium." As of August 2025, the total amount of staked Ethereum has reached 36 million ETH, accounting for 30% of the total supply, with an average annualized yield of about 2.95% (actual yield around 1.5%-2.15%). A 1.5% risk-free return is similar to the cash flow of traditional bonds.
2. Liquidity Income: Additional income can be obtained by providing liquidity through DeFi protocols in the Ethereum ecosystem. In 2025, the total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum DeFi protocols is approximately $120 billion, with annualized yields from liquidity mining typically ranging from 2% to 10%. Assuming that coin-holding stocks provide liquidity through DeFi protocols, a conservative estimate would yield an annualized return of 3.5%. Combining staking income (1.5%) and liquidity income (3.5%), coin-holding stocks can achieve approximately 5% annualized cash flow returns. Using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, assuming a discount rate of 5%, the cash flow premium is 1 times MNAV, resulting in a total MNAV multiple of 2 times.
3. Other Premiums: Ethereum's EIP-1559 mechanism creates a potential deflationary characteristic by burning base transaction fees. In 2025, Ethereum is expected to have a net issuance of 730,000 ETH (annual inflation rate of about 0.6%), but with network burns. If ETH achieves net deflation in the future, the price of ETH may only rise, amplifying the cash flow returns of coin-holding stocks and indirectly enhancing MNAV premiums.

3. The Buying Power of Treasury Companies Has Just Begun

The ETH treasury companies BMNR and SBET have high buying costs and ample backhand support, while the overall buying power of traditional finance is still in the startup phase. According to data summarized by Yujin, BitMine (BMNR) has been accumulating 1,523,373 ETH since July 9, with a cost of $5.68 billion and an average price of $3,730 per ETH, while SharpLink (SBET) has been accumulating 740,760 ETH since June 13, with a cost of $2.57 billion and an average price of $3,478 per ETH, including 1,388 ETH rewards obtained through staking. As the price of Ethereum continues to rise, the holding costs of both companies will also increase.

From the perspective of future financing capabilities:

BMNR: According to the Prospectus Supplement released on August 12, 2025, BMNR has raised the total amount of its ATM to $24.5 billion, and it is expected to have cumulatively financed about $4.45 billion through the ATM mechanism, holding approximately 1.52 million ETH, theoretically still having about $18-20 billion available. If the price of ETH is calculated at $4,700 per ETH, BMNR could potentially increase its holdings by about 4.26 million ETH, bringing its potential total holding limit close to 5.78 million ETH, nearing the goal of holding 5% of the total supply.

SBET: Since SharpLink launched its ETH treasury strategy in June 2025, it has rapidly accumulated about 740,760 ETH through ATM financing (approximately $1.2 billion) and registered direct sales. Its ATM limit has been adjusted from the initial amount to a maximum of $6 billion, and it is expected to obtain about $600 million through targeted issuance. Assuming all financing is used to purchase ETH, based on the cost of ETH, the remaining ATM balance is expected to purchase 851,000 ETH.

Currently, U.S. companies holding ETH have accumulated nearly $20 billion worth of ETH, accounting for 3.39% of the total supply, with Bitmine still having 75% progress towards its goal of holding 5% of the total ETH supply.

Daily ATM Funding:

MicroStrategy is a representative of the Bitcoin treasury strategy, with its trading volume significantly varying between bull and bear markets.

MicroStrategy implemented its Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, and during the bull market from 2020 to 2021, its stock price rose from $13 to a peak of $540, with daily trading volume increasing significantly, but it was greatly affected by market activity and BTC prices. Based on recent stock prices and average trading volume, the daily trading volume is estimated to be around $3.5 billion to $7 billion.

During the bear market in 2022, the price of Bitcoin plummeted from $69,000 to $16,000, and MicroStrategy's stock price halved, with trading volume significantly shrinking, averaging daily trading volume dropping to $200 million to $500 million.

Comparing to ETH DAT companies, a similar situation may arise:

BitMine's current trading volume has reached $2 billion daily, peaking at $6 billion, nearing or exceeding MicroStrategy's peak in the last bull market, receiving high market attention. Meanwhile, SBET's daily trading volume fluctuates significantly, averaging 50 million shares, with daily trading volume around $1 billion. If the market enters a bear phase, DAT companies' trading volume may shrink to $100 million to $500 million daily, similar to MicroStrategy's performance in 2022. Assuming 10%-20% of daily trading volume can be converted to ATM, under the current trading volume, $2 billion to $4 billion could be raised weekly for purchasing ETH, based on the ATM limit, expected to last for 3 months.

4. The Long-Term Performance of ETFs Remains Strong

ETFs, as passive funds that achieve success through large-scale, low-cost acquisition, have become the preferred choice for traditional large-scale capital allocation. From May 16 to August 15, ETH ETFs recorded 14 consecutive weeks of net inflows, with the highest single-week net inflow reaching $2.85 billion, and the net asset value accounting for 5.38% of the total supply, with $19.2 billion worth (68%) of ETH accumulated over the 14 weeks, with an estimated average buying cost of around $3,600.

BlackRock's ETHA is the largest ETF, holding about 2.93% of the tokens, with a current market value of $17.2 billion. Since April 2025, ETHA has been in a state of net inflow every week, with net inflow funds of about $8 billion, and the maximum single-week net inflow reaching $2.32 billion.

Currently, the global gold ETF (aggregating ETFs/ETPs from various regions) has a scale of $386 billion, Bitcoin stands at $179.5 billion, while Ethereum is only at $32.6 billion. If the Ethereum narrative is sustainable, it would require a growth of $140 billion to catch up to the current Bitcoin ETF scale.

5. Market Risk Appetite Shifts from BTC to ETH Trading

From the perspective of contract open interest and trading volume, BTC has clearly cooled down, with funds concentrating into ETH. At the beginning of May, BTC's contract open interest accounted for 73%, but it is now only 55%; ETH's share has risen from 27% to 45%.

In terms of contract trading volume, BTC's share has dropped from 61% at the beginning of May to 31% currently; ETH's trading volume share has increased from 35% at the beginning of May to 68%, continuing to rise.

Recent behavior of on-chain whales indicates a shift in risk appetite, with whales selling BTC to purchase ETH. According to data from @ai_9684xtpa, starting from August 20, an ancient BTC whale that had been dormant for seven years sold part of its BTC, swapping it for 71,108 ETH (worth about $304 million) at an average cost of approximately $4,284/ETH. The total holdings later increased to 105,599 ETH (worth about $495 million). At the same time, they built long positions in ETH on Hyperliquid and staked 269,485 ETH (worth $1.25 billion) on the ETH beacon chain on August 25, directly surpassing the Ethereum Foundation's holdings (231,000 ETH).

During Q2 2025, Ethereum whales (wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH) increased their holdings by 200,000 ETH ($515 million), while super whales (holding over 100,000 ETH) saw their total ETH holdings rebound from a historical low of 37.56 million ETH in October 2024 to over 41.06 million ETH, having increased by 9.31% since October 2024.

3. BTC Chip Structure Remains Relatively Stable

Due to the shift in risk appetite from BTC to ETH, BTC has recently shown relatively weak performance. From the ETF perspective, there has been a significant net outflow; from the on-chain whale perspective, many whales are swapping BTC for ETH. Based on past experiences from the four-year cycle in the crypto space, this bull market is expected to last another 2-3 months to reach a duration comparable to previous bull markets. Therefore, there are concerns in the market: Is BTC about to enter a bear market, and if BTC enters a bear market, how can ETH maintain its independent upward trend?

We believe that the current U.S. fiscal cycle is longer than in the previous two crypto bull markets, while BTC's chip structure remains relatively stable, currently in a state of fluctuation.

The following chart illustrates the cost distribution of BTC chips, with the gray bars representing the current price, and the blue boxes indicating the main concentration areas of chips, which are 93K-98K, 103K-108K, and 116K-118K. The accumulated chip volume in these three areas is substantial, with a large amount of low-cost chips being swapped in this range, forming relatively strong support.

Currently, the chips in the 116K-118K range are in a slight loss state, while the chips in the 93K-98K and 103K-108K ranges are in profit. Although BTC's price performance is relatively weak, it has found support around 11K, with two significant support areas below, overall remaining in a state of fluctuation.

Additionally, the current cost basis for short-term holders is approximately 108,800. When BTC operates above this level, short-term holders remain in profit and are unlikely to panic sell. Historically, there have been two instances in early 2024 where rebounds occurred near the short-term holder cost line, as well as a situation in February 2025 where the price fell below this cost line upon first touching it. If it falls below this cost line, BTC will enter a mid-term adjustment, affecting the overall trend of the crypto industry.

Currently, BTC is at a critical position, having rebounded after touching this cost line yesterday. This week, it is essential to closely monitor whether BTC can stabilize at this position.

4. Continuously Improving Macroeconomic Environment

1. Fundamental Valuation Logic Restructuring Under U.S. Regulations

In July 2025, the U.S. GENIUS stablecoin bill was officially legislated. Compared to BTC, stablecoins are pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar, and their higher capital efficiency makes them more suitable as debt reduction tools. At the same time, stablecoins can drive global capital efficiently into the U.S. dollar system, supporting U.S. Treasury purchases and injecting liquidity into on-chain financial assets, promoting the digital expansion of U.S. dollar hegemony. Currently, the total market value of stablecoins is $275 billion, while BTC's market value is $2.2 trillion, with the estimated global value of BTC mining machines at $15-20 billion, ETH's market value at $550 billion, and staking value at approximately $165 billion. In the future, whether replacing BTC's partial debt reduction function, promoting the on-chain value of assets, or accommodating new payment systems, the scale of stablecoins will accelerate expansion in the long term, rapidly growing to a multi-trillion dollar market size.

As the primary infrastructure for stablecoins and DeFi, ETH's price benefits from purchases driven by the network security of financial on-chainization, as well as from the endogenous DeFi model: stablecoin injections provide foundational liquidity—DeFi ecosystems use stablecoins to create leverage and derivatives to purchase more ETH—surging trading activities drive gas fees and promote ETH burning. By using transaction fees (gas fees) and proof of stake (PoS) from the ETH network as cash flow income, a rough valuation calculation using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that under optimistic conditions (7% growth rate, 9% discount rate, leverage factor of 3), ETH's market value has the potential to exceed $3 trillion, surpassing the current market value of BTC.

2. Interest Rate Cut Cycle Approaching

On August 22, Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole conference, stating that inflation remains high, but the downside risks to employment are increasing; against the backdrop of policies still in a "restrictive" range, the committee will "proceed cautiously" and will adjust policy positions if necessary. Analysts generally believe that a rate cut in September is almost "a foregone conclusion," representing a turning point towards a dovish stance. Following the speech, crypto-related stocks and ETH-related assets surged, with ETH reclaiming all its losses from earlier in the week, soaring to a historical high of $4,887.

In past interest rate cut cycles, ETH has generally outperformed BTC. With Congress returning from recess in September, the push for crypto policies will accelerate, and the expectations for ETH's financial on-chainization and DeFi prosperity have yet to materialize, providing a positive macro environment for ETH's market.

3. Preferred Development of Stablecoins and RWA

The U.S. government and financial institutions are consistently promoting the on-chain financial movement. Currently, the scale of stablecoins has reached $275 billion, while RWA (Real World Assets) stands at $26.4 billion, with over 50% of stablecoins operating on the Ethereum network and RWA accounting for 53.4% on Ethereum. The total TVL (Total Value Locked) in DeFi is $161.1 billion, with over 60% deployed on ETH. The BlackRock BUIDL fund has 95% deployed on Ethereum, and 80% of Securitize's tokenized shares are deployed on Ethereum.

In this article, we have tracked and analyzed some quantitatively clear and large-scale data. Overall, the recent supply-side unstaking data will not change the upward trend of ETH, and the foreseeable upper limit of new buying from both treasury companies and ETFs has yet to be reached, with relatively high entry costs. With the fundamental financial logic shift under U.S. regulations, ETH is an asset that combines internal and external growth to jointly drive price increases. As the macro environment improves and policies further develop, the long-term market value of ETH will surpass that of BTC.

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