1. Market Observation

On Tuesday, U.S. tech stocks faced their worst sell-off in months, influenced by concerns over the commercialization returns of artificial intelligence and warnings from industry leaders about a bubble. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.4%. A report from MIT indicating that 95% of AI investments yield zero returns, along with comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman about "over-excitement," exacerbated market panic, leading to capital flowing out of high-momentum tech stocks like Nvidia and into defensive sectors such as consumer staples, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Currently, market focus is shifting to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting scheduled for Thursday and the minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting. Although traders are heavily betting on a significant rate cut by the Fed in September, higher-than-expected inflation data, rare internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, and political pressure from the White House have cast a thick cloud of uncertainty over the monetary policy outlook. In this context, Goldman Sachs strategists noted that five-year U.S. Treasury bonds have become an attractive trading choice due to their ability to provide protection when market risks rise.

Regarding Bitcoin, market opinions are mixed. Conservative trader Roman believes that if Bitcoin falls below $112,000, it could further drop to $97,000; Rekt Capital also pointed out that if the price continues to close below $114,000, it will confirm a downward trend. In terms of support levels, Material Indicators' Keith Alan believes the key range is between $107,000 and $110,000, with the 100-day moving average (around $110,950) being an important defense line, and significant liquidity at $105,000 providing downside protection. In contrast, bullish analyst BitQuant firmly believes that Bitcoin will not fall below $100,000 in this bull market, providing a target price range of $145,000 to $250,000. Analysis from TheKingfisher also noted that a large short liquidation zone above $117,000 could act as a "magnetic point" attracting prices upward.

For Ethereum, several analysts view the recent pullback as a healthy adjustment. Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, pointed out that after a three-month tripling in price, a 10% pullback is normal, and if it can find support and rebound in the $4,000 to $4,100 range, it would be a typical bullish confirmation. Axel Bitblaze also stated that the current ETH price pullback to around $4,100 is a healthy adjustment, expecting ETH to break its historical high in the next phase, driving liquidity into its ecosystem tokens. Specifically, Mark Newton, an analyst at Fundstrat led by Tom Lee, predicts that Ethereum may dip to a buying opportunity zone of $4,075 to $4,150 mid-week, followed by a rebound to around $5,100. Analyst Ted added that there is significant liquidity and a CME gap in the $4,100 to $4,150 range, and prices may start a new round of increases after filling the gap. (Note: This gap was filled on the morning of August 20). More optimistic predictions come from CryptoRover, who observed whale activity and a short liquidation "magnetic point" in the $4,300 to $4,360 range, believing this could push prices toward $4,750 to $8,000.

Regarding the recent pullback in the crypto market, HashKey's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that it is mainly due to profit-taking, market deleveraging, and macroeconomic factors. He believes that the concentrated selling of accumulated profits at high levels, combined with the liquidation of high-leverage positions, has amplified price volatility. At the same time, the cooling of expectations for Fed rate cuts and the diminishing marginal effects of policy favorable signals have also suppressed the risk appetite for crypto assets. Nevertheless, he emphasized that this pullback is a healthy adjustment within an upward trend, rather than a fundamental trend reversal.

From the overall market dynamics, today's Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 44, indicating a "fear state," reflecting cautious market sentiment. Among altcoins, Placeholder partner Chris Burniske pointed out that Solana has become the fastest major crypto asset to rebound from the recent market bottom and expects it to continue leading in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, there are differing views among Wall Street institutions regarding the long-term impact of stablecoins. Bernstein is optimistic that the crypto bull market will last until 2027 and has raised target prices for companies like Coinbase and Robinhood; while Goldman Sachs believes that stablecoins pose "limited threats" to traditional payment systems and is more optimistic about Robinhood's innovative capabilities in the crypto space.

2. Key Data (As of August 20, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $113,621 (YTD +21.42%), daily spot trading volume $45.49 billion

• Ethereum: $4,161.55 (YTD +24.78%), daily spot trading volume $41.35 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 44 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.2 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 60.02%, ETH 13.19%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ETH, XRP, API3, BTC, STRIKE

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.58%/50.42%

• Sector performance: The crypto market suffered across the board, with the GameFi sector leading the decline at 3.35%, and the PayFi sector down 2.46%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 128,043 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $450 million, including $102 million in BTC, $174 million in ETH, and $17.5 million in XRPL

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($118,098.33), lower line ($115,759.75)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($4,275.66), lower line ($4,190.99)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (As of August 19)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$523 million

• Ethereum ETF: $422 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch DecentralGPT (DGC) on August 20

• Qubic will implement Epoch 175 halving on August 20, reducing the effective weekly issuance by about 50%

• AI project Sapien will conduct TGE on August 20, with 5% airdropped to early contributors

• Binance Alpha will launch AriaAI (ARIA) on August 21

• The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. (August 21, 02:00)

• LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens at 7 PM on August 20, accounting for 8.53% of the current circulation, valued at about $56.6 million;

• KAITO (KAITO) will unlock approximately 23.35 million tokens at 8 PM on August 20, accounting for 10.87% of the current circulation, valued at about $26.2 million;

• Bittensor (TAO) will unlock approximately 210,000 tokens on August 21, valued at about $8.15 million

Top 100 Market Cap Gainers Today: Mantle up 7.8%, OKB up 6.2%, Lido DAO up 2.1%, Jupiter up 2%, Solana up 1.6%.

5. Hot News

• CyberKongz will issue a new token KONG to replace BANANA, with 2% airdropped to the Ethereum NFT community

• BitMine and SharpLink's cost price for holding ETH is $3,730 and $3,478 respectively

• SkyBridge Capital plans to tokenize $300 million in assets on Avalanche

• Thumzup intends to fully acquire Dogehash, expanding into Dogecoin and Litecoin mining

• VCI Global announces a $2 billion partnership: promoting crypto infrastructure and asset tokenization based on 18,000 BTC

• Wyoming launches the first state-level stablecoin FRNT, now live on seven blockchains including Solana and Arbitrum

• The number of ETH in the Ethereum PoS network exit queue has increased to over 900,000, with a waiting time of about 15 days and 18 hours

• Public company BNC announces an increase in BNB holdings from 200,000 to 325,000

• ETHZilla's stock code has changed from "ATNF" to "ETHZ", with a total holding of 94,675 ETH

This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia. It aims to set a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.

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