Metrics Ventures July Market Observation Guide for the Crypto Market Secondary Fund

1/ Following our stance since May, the continued return of market risk appetite has driven the price center higher. ETH has shown significant outperformance, becoming the hottest topic of discussion in the current market, with frequent hot spots in coin stocks and continuously expanding trading volumes.

2/ Regarding Ethereum, we believe that there is no need to overly focus on short-term trends before the ETF staking is implemented, interest rate cuts enter the mid-term, and panic buying occurs. The short-term speculative hotspots for funds will always shift, and our view on ETH remains unchanged.

3/ Bitcoin faced a new selling pressure of ten billion dollars in July; however, under this rigid selling pressure, the intrinsic volatility of this asset remains below 10%. The high degree of chip locking around 120,000 dollars is astonishing. Such selling pressure, aside from proving the asset's attributes, will only change the final cycle's pattern and structure, not the fact of bull and bear markets. We remain very optimistic about the future market.

4/ The global fiscal easing cycle has begun, and Trump's global maneuvering has laid a solid foundation for the relaxation of financial regulation within the dollar system and the continuous rise in risk appetite. Ride the wave, stay focused, and quietly wait for the moment of divergence during the buying climax.

Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Trends

In the past month, the entire dollar market has returned to the familiar low-volatility upward trend of the past few years. Momentum typically focuses on localized event-driven targets, and there hasn't been particularly strong linkage even at the sector level. However, the trends of Meta and ETH indicate unusual optimism and aggressiveness, which is worth noting. In previous monthly reports, we repeatedly pointed out that the market in Q3-Q4 this year would be driven by the return of risk appetite and the unification of interest rate cut expectations. At this moment, these two driving factors have reached the mid to late stages, and we have already seen:

① Under the backdrop of a dominant leader, the global response outside of major countries has been submissive, including a consistent softening from domestic entities, including the Federal Reserve's reserves;

② Dollar institutions are making every effort to replenish positions, and the theory of dollar exceptionalism continues to return;

③ The relaxation of financial regulation is continuously promoted by the ongoing introduction of various bills, financial on-chain initiatives, and the loosening of leverage ratios;

Overall, we believe that the monetary easing in price games will at most reach the mid-game, but the expectation game will also enter an extremely competitive phase. Therefore, in the short term, the speculation on short-term data and technical patterns will be a continuous negative EV strategy. Price rotation is healthy, and the expansion of trading volume has become a neutral event that requires careful analysis.

As for the RMB market, the analysis from the end of last year is slowly gaining traction. Currently, technology (chips, AI, etc.) and inflation (chemicals, non-ferrous metals) are seen as the best segments in the eyes of MVC. Investors are welcome to inquire without hesitation.

The market fluctuates up and down, momentum comes and goes, causing public sentiment to waver. The chips in the old coin circle are gradually flowing away in this process. We hope to find the next phase peak of the dollar cycle with all the experts in the upcoming cycle. Ride the Wave and Have fun.

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