Fundamentals:
Both China and the U.S. have agreed to postpone the implementation of the originally scheduled 24% tariff by 90 days, temporarily alleviating the impact of significant tariff increases. This measure has eased systemic trade risks in the short term and boosted market risk appetite, providing a temporary benefit to BTC, ETH, and high Beta altcoins. However, it is important to note that this policy window is limited, and future trends will still depend on whether trade negotiations can reach a long-term agreement and the direction of global monetary policy.
Bank of America has warned that if inflation levels remain above target and are compounded by tariff increases, the rationale for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September will be weakened. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the current market expects an 85.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
The CPI data that the market is focused on is about to be released, and U.S. stocks face potential stress testing: if inflation is significantly hot, it will weaken expectations for a Fed rate cut; if the data is significantly cold, it may reinforce signals of economic slowdown. In both scenarios, the short-term reaction of U.S. stocks after the data release may lean towards negative.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Yesterday, BTC surged and then fell back, closing with a long upper shadow bearish candle, indicating that the market conducted a tentative breakout. The breakout was accompanied by significant volume, and the subsequent pullback saw a noticeable reduction in trading volume, suggesting that there was no large-scale selling pressure at high levels. This pattern is often a confirmation of a pullback after a breakout. In the short-term moving average system, the 7-day moving average has crossed above the 14-day and 30-day moving averages, forming a golden cross, establishing a bullish pattern. The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the fast and slow lines crossing upward, and momentum is gradually recovering. If the price subsequently pulls back to the 7-day moving average without breaking it and breaks through 120K with increased volume, it is expected to open up upward space to 135K; the lower support at 116K is an important recent support level, and if it breaks with volume, attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback to 111K. On the 4-hour level, after five consecutive bearish candles reaching 118K, a slight rebound has occurred, with this level being a strong support area for the weekend's rise. Short-term operations should focus on the support at 118-117K and resistance at 120.5-121.5K.
ETH: After a strong rally, ETH has entered a short-term high-level consolidation. If the price maintains support at the moving averages, the upward channel will not be broken. The short to medium-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement with a steep angle, reflecting that the trend is in an acceleration phase. Trading volume has maintained a moderate increase during the upward phase, and there has been no extreme exhaustion of volume at the highs. The MACD histogram remains positive and continues to expand, with the fast line recovering, indicating sufficient short-term momentum. Considering the accumulated gains over the past few months, even if a downturn occurs, it will typically first experience a high-level consolidation and distribution process, making a sharp one-sided drop unlikely in the short term. On the 4-hour cycle, the price has stabilized multiple times around 4150, with the lows gradually rising, showing no signs of a downward break. During the day, attention should be paid to the support at 4240-4200 and resistance at 4340-4380.
Altcoins: During the market adjustment phase, altcoins, as high-risk assets, have seen significant declines, with three consecutive bearish candles following a weekend surge and subsequent drop, resulting in an overall retracement of over 10%, especially pronounced in the MEME sector. The siphoning effect of funds towards mainstream coins is evident, with high Beta sectors continuously losing liquidity, leading to a decline in short-term buying confidence, and there are currently no clear signals of a bottoming out technically. The current strategy is to patiently wait, not to chase mainstream coins, and not to blindly bottom-fish altcoins, but to consider entering when the daily chart shows double long lower shadows. For MEME-type assets, if the rebound within 24 hours is less than 5% and there is no significant increase in trading volume, it is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see approach. Moving forward, attention should be focused on when the upward momentum of mainstream coins slows down and trading volume declines, as some mid-cap altcoins with recent on-chain hotspots may present trading opportunities with unusual volume.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and caution is advised when entering. The above is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
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