Elon Musk Raises New Questions About Bitcoin's Long-Term Security Amid Rapid Development of Quantum Computing
Written by: bitcoinist
Translated by: Blockchain Knight
Elon Musk has raised new questions about the long-term security of Bitcoin in the context of the rapid development of quantum computing. The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX explored the possibility of Bitcoin's SHA-256 hashing algorithm being cracked by powerful quantum computers through his AI chatbot Grok.
He posed this question just as IBM announced significant plans for its next-generation quantum system "Blue Jay," which is expected to achieve 2,000 global quantum bits by 2033.
According to Grok's analysis, the risk of quantum computers cracking Bitcoin's encryption in the next five years is extremely low, with AI estimating this probability to be close to zero.
However, looking ahead to 2035, the probability will slightly increase, but it will still remain below 10%. These figures are based on expert assessments and current quantum computing capabilities.
"Based on assessments from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), IBM's 2025 evaluation, and expert surveys, the probability of quantum computers cracking SHA-256 using Grover's algorithm (which reduces the complexity of searching for pre-images to about 2^128 operations) is close to 0% in the next 5 years and below 10% before 2035. This requires millions of error-correcting qubits…" — Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025
Musk's concerns are not unfounded. Companies like Google and Microsoft are developing their own quantum platforms (Willow and Majorana 1), sparking discussions about whether cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could potentially be attacked by these super-powerful systems in the future.
Currently, most quantum systems have only about 1,000 quantum bits, far below the millions of error-correcting qubits that scientists believe are necessary to crack Bitcoin's encryption defenses.
Grok added that if needed in the future, stronger algorithms such as SHA-3 or SHA-512 could be adopted as alternatives.
Meanwhile, a recent analysis by global auditing firm Deloitte indicates that quantum computers could soon threaten the security of the Bitcoin blockchain, with approximately 25% of Bitcoin currently at risk of being stolen through quantum attacks.
Analysts suggest that ultimately, the computing power of quantum computers may become strong enough to crack the entire transaction process. To mitigate this risk, the Bitcoin network needs to adopt post-quantum cryptography. This is an emerging but complex solution that cryptographers around the world are currently exploring.
IBM's new system "Blue Jay" will have the capability of over 1 billion gate operations, far exceeding the performance range of current computers.
This is a significant move for the company as it strives to be at the forefront of quantum computing in the early 2030s. With industry giants like Google and Microsoft hot on its heels, competition is becoming increasingly fierce.
Musk's interest is not purely academic. Tesla currently holds 11,500 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $1.3 billion at current prices. SpaceX also holds a substantial amount, reportedly worth about $850 million in Bitcoin. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his personal investment portfolio.
Given the scale of these holdings, it is no wonder that Musk wants to proactively address potential threats. His tweets may seem lighthearted, but they indicate a growing concern in the tech community about the impact that advancements in quantum technology could have on cryptocurrencies and the financial sector.
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