"The 'Four-Year Cycle' Theory is Completely Outdated!"

Author: tmel0211

Reprinted from: Plain Language Blockchain

If you are still holding onto the hope of getting rich quickly and fantasizing about "the opportunity to win tenfold or a hundredfold in a bull market," you may have already been completely abandoned by the market. Why?

Because smart money has long discovered a secret: the current Crypto landscape does not adhere to a single strategy, but rather operates on four completely different gameplay cycles simultaneously:

Each gameplay cycle has a completely different rhythm, strategy, and logic for making money.

—— Bitcoin Super Cycle: Retail Investors Exit, a Decade of Slow Bull May Become the Norm

The traditional halving cycle "script"? Completely ineffective! BTC has evolved from a "speculative target" to an "institutional asset allocation," and the scale and allocation logic of funds from Wall Street, public companies, and ETFs are entirely different from the retail investors' "bull-bear switching" strategy.

Where is the key change? Retail investors are massively handing over their chips, while institutional funds, represented by MicroStrategy, are entering the market aggressively. This fundamental restructuring of chip distribution is redefining BTC's price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics.

What are retail investors facing? The dual squeeze of "time cost" and "opportunity cost." Institutions can endure a holding period of 3-5 years to wait for BTC's long-term value realization, but retail investors? Clearly, they cannot have such patience and financial layout strength.

In my view, we are likely to see a BTC super slow bull that lasts for over ten years. The annualized return may stabilize in the range of 20-30%, but the intraday volatility will significantly decrease, resembling a steadily growing tech stock. As for how high BTC's price ceiling will reach? From the perspective of current retail investors, it is even difficult to predict.

—— MEME Attention Short Wave Cycle: From Slum Paradise to Professional Harvesting Ground

The MEME long bull theory is also valid; during the technical narrative's performance gap, MEME narratives will always fill the market's "boredom vacuum" in sync with emotions, funds, and attention.

What is the essence of MEME? It is a speculative vehicle for "instant gratification." No white papers, no technical validation, no roadmaps—just a symbol that can make people smile or resonate is enough. From cat and dog culture to political MEMEs, from AI concept packaging to community IP incubation, MEME has evolved into a complete "emotional monetization" industrial chain.

The deadly part is that MEME's "short and quick" characteristic makes it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When funds are abundant, MEME becomes the preferred testing ground for hot money; when funds are scarce, MEME turns into the last refuge for speculation.

However, reality is harsh; the MEME market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition." The difficulty for ordinary retail investors to profit in this high-frequency rotation is increasing exponentially.

The story of P small investors sitting idly to create legends may become increasingly rare, as the entry of studios, scientists, and large investors will make this once "slum paradise" intensely competitive.

—— Technological Narrative Leap Long Cycle: Bottom Fishing in the Valley of Death, Starting with 10x in 3 Years?

Has the technological narrative disappeared? Not at all. Innovations with real technical barriers, such as Layer 2 scaling, ZK technology, and AI infrastructure, require 2-3 years or even longer build time to see actual results. These projects follow the technology maturity curve (Gartner Hype Cycle), not the emotional cycle of the capital market—there is a fundamental time misalignment between the two.

The reason the technological narrative is criticized by the market is that overly high valuations are given when projects are still in the conceptual stage, and then during the "valley of death" phase, when technology truly begins to land, they are undervalued. This determines that the value release of technological projects presents a non-linear leap characteristic.

For patient investors with technical judgment, laying out truly valuable technological projects during the "valley of death" phase may be the best strategy to achieve excess returns. But the premise is that you must endure a long waiting period and market torment, as well as potential ridicule.

—— Innovative Small Hotspot Short Cycle: 1-3 Month Window, Brewing the Main Wave Narrative

Before the main technical narrative takes shape, various small narratives rotate quickly, from RWA to DePIN, from AI Agent to AI Infra (MCP+A2A), each small hotspot may only have a 1-3 month window.

This fragmentation of narratives and high-frequency rotation reflects the current market's dual constraints of attention scarcity and fund-seeking efficiency.

In fact, it is not difficult to find that typical small narrative cycles follow a six-stage model: "Concept Validation → Fund Testing → Public Opinion Amplification → FOMO Entry → Valuation Overdraft → Fund Withdrawal." Want to profit in this model?

The key is to enter during the "Concept Validation" to "Fund Testing" phase and exit at the peak of "FOMO Entry."

The competition between small narratives is essentially a zero-sum game for attention resources. However, there are technical correlations and conceptual progression relationships between narratives. For example, the MCP (Model Context Protocol) in AI Infra and the A2A (Agent-to-Agent) interaction standard are actually a technical underlying reconstruction of the AI Agent narrative. If subsequent narratives can continue the previous hotspots, forming a systematic upgrade linkage, and truly solidify a sustainable value loop during the linkage process, it is very likely that a super narrative at the level of a main wave similar to DeFi Summer will emerge.

From the current small narrative landscape, the AI infrastructure layer is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first. If the underlying technologies such as the MCP protocol, A2A communication standard, distributed computing, inference, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed potential to build a super narrative similar to "AI Summer."

That's all.

In summary, understanding the essence of these four parallel gameplay cycles is crucial to finding suitable strategies within their respective rhythms. Undoubtedly, the singular "four-year cycle" mindset can no longer keep pace with the complexity of the current market.

Adapting to the new normal of "multiple gameplay cycles running in parallel" may be the key to truly profiting in this bull market.

Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/07/5990.html

Source: https://x.com/tmel0211/status/1926854038642901352

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。