Source: Uweb Live Sharing Class
Content Organized by: Peter_Techub News

The information shared in this article is for reference only and does not constitute any form of investment advice. Investors should conduct independent research and judgment when making investment decisions, and fully consider their financial situation, investment goals, and risk tolerance.

On the evening of July 29, 2025, the 180th Uweb live class focused on the themes of "Must-See Data Weekly Report Interpretation for Web3" and "Revealing the Underlying Logic and Gameplay of Coin Stocks," highlighting the trend of the integration of cryptocurrency and traditional finance. By combining on-chain data and macroeconomic analysis, it provided systematic insights for investors. The program was hosted by Uweb Principal Yu Jianing, who invited cutting-edge technology investor Teacher Zheng Di and speaker Teacher Zheng Di to engage in an in-depth discussion on market conditions, on-chain data, the logic of coin-stock integration, and investment opportunities. This session combined the Web3 Data Weekly Report and coin-stock track analysis, revealing the collaborative potential between the crypto market and traditional finance, and providing clear strategic guidance for investors. Below is a summary of the program's content, covering the core issues and key points of the two major sections.

Part 1: Must-See Data Weekly Report Interpretation for Web3

Market Conditions

The crypto market currently exhibits a characteristic of "internal coolness and external heat." Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced fluctuations last week, with growth slowing down, failing to drive a comprehensive rise in altcoins, reflecting insufficient market liquidity. Conflux (CFX, nicknamed "Chen Fengxia") performed well, benefiting from the RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization) boom, becoming the preferred ecosystem for domestic RWA projects on-chain, with new projects within its ecosystem worth noting. The overall market did not see a "rise of all altcoins," with only a few coins like BNB reaching historical highs. Speaker Teacher Rui Bin mentioned that Conflux co-founder Zhang Yuanjie will share ecological planning in the Hong Kong course (from Thursday to next Monday), focusing on RWA opportunities. Although market sentiment is high (Greed Index at 73), it has not reached extreme frenzy, and there is still profit space for short-term speculative funds. Investors are advised to pay attention to Web3 concept stocks (such as RWA and stablecoin-related), which may bring 50%-500% returns, but they should be wary of high risks and the "death spiral" model, avoiding mindless chasing of highs.

On-Chain Data Highlights

On-chain data shows that the main upward wave has entered the early to mid-stage, with long-term holders (over 155 days) distributing 35,000 BTC, totaling 197,000 BTC, still far from the accumulation cycle peak (776,000 BTC). The expected BTC peak is between $105,000 and $150,000. A "chip wall" forms between $115,000 and $119,000, serving as strong support, validated by multiple pullbacks; there is a gap between $113,000 and $114,000 that may be filled in the future. Global investor sentiment has reached a consensus, with European sentiment warming, providing momentum for the rise. ETF fund inflows are weak, at only $75 million, far below previous weeks (over $2 billion), reflecting that US capital dominates market momentum. The expectation for interest rate cuts in September has risen to 52%, with the Federal Reserve's rate decision on July 31 being closely watched, expected to maintain rates. The upcoming week will see a dense release of macro data, which may exacerbate market volatility. It is recommended to closely monitor ETF data and US capital movements, reasonably control positions, guard against pullback risks, and explore new opportunities in RWA and stablecoins.

Part 2: Revealing the Underlying Logic and Gameplay of Coin Stocks

1. The Underlying Logic of the Coin-Stock Boom

Principal Yu's Question: What is the logic behind the integration of coin stocks? Is it a long-term benefit or a short-term boom?

Teacher Zheng Di's Answer: This round of the coin-stock boom is unprecedented, not a "self-entertainment" of the traditional crypto market, but rather an integration into the US debt strategy, resonating with policies and macroeconomic factors. The core logic includes: 1) Stablecoins enhance short-term bond financing capabilities; 2) Everything on-chain (RWA) through security token issuance, bringing assets on-chain to capture global hot money, with a potential market size of $590 trillion. Ethereum, Solana, and Layer 2s are benefiting from the trend of RWA, and related micro-strategy companies are highly sought after. Domestic policies are loosening, as Conflux explores offshore RMB stablecoins, making headlines, indicating that the integration of crypto assets and traditional finance is a global trend. Teacher Zheng Di believes this is just the beginning, with more exaggerated developments expected in the next three to five years, as the traditional four-year cycle volatility flattens, with clear long-term benefits. In the short term, attention should be paid to policy fluctuations around the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential elections, but the integration of coin stocks represents a new stage of financial evolution, with market potential far exceeding the current $4 trillion, possibly reaching $30 trillion by 2030.

2. Coin-Stock Allocation Strategies and Track Selection

Principal Yu's Question: Under the trend of everything on-chain, how can we effectively allocate coin-stock assets?

Teacher Zheng Di's Answer: The stock capital pool ($100 trillion) far exceeds cryptocurrency ($700 billion), making coin-stock research a priority. Seven major tracks: 1) Mining (holding coins and transforming data centers); 2) Micro-strategy companies (such as Ethereum and Solana coin-holding enterprises); 3) Exchanges (Coinbase, OSL, etc.); 4) Market makers (Galaxy); 5) Stablecoin companies (Circle, ENA-related); 6) Stablecoin payment companies; 7) Internet brokerages (Robinhood, Futu). Internet brokerages are the winners, with strong user financial power, and the profit margins of crypto businesses far exceed those of stocks. Robinhood achieves high profits through contracts for difference and self-developed pricing feeds, but regulatory risks must be heeded. In the next three to five years, C-end users will mostly indirectly access on-chain facilities through B-end (such as brokerages). It is recommended to focus on Web3 and AI tracks, study valuation gaps, invest 90% of efforts in coin stocks, avoid traditional cyclical stocks, seize 50%-500% profit opportunities, and guard against high risks.

3. The Impact of Coin-Stock Integration on Traditional Brokerages

Principal Yu's Question: Does everything on-chain threaten the existence of traditional brokerages due to disintermediation?

Teacher Zheng Di's Answer: The on-chain infrastructure has a high threshold for C-end users; in the next three to five years, most users will still need to access on-chain facilities indirectly through B-end (such as brokerage and payment institution) apps. Brokerages that embrace blockchain early will see profit margins increase significantly, with costs dropping sharply, while revenue declines are limited. For example, Stripe's acquisition of Bridge for stablecoin payments reduced fees from 2.8% to 1.5%, with costs below 0.6%, significantly improving profit margins. Robinhood achieves high profits through MEV models and contracts for difference, but regulatory challenges must be monitored. In the future, the boundaries between stock and coin exchanges will blur, with competition shifting to asset acquisition and operational capabilities. Traditional brokerages that do not transform will be eliminated, while early movers (like Robinhood and Stripe) will capture the market, with profit margins and market values continuing to rise. Disintermediation requires long-term evolution; in the short term, B-end will dominate user access, and brokerages need to optimize front-end customer acquisition and back-end on-chain facilities to guard against "death spiral" risks.

4. Key Success Factors of the Micro-Strategy Model and Challenges in Hong Kong Stocks

Principal Yu's Question: What are the core success factors of the micro-strategy model? What challenges does the coin-stock development face in Hong Kong?

Teacher Zheng Di's Answer: The core of the micro-strategy model is the flywheel effect of issuing more coins or borrowing to hold coins, followed by continued issuance at a premium, requiring a "master-level" leader with strong evangelistic ability and influence, not merely hoarding coins. The development of coin stocks in Hong Kong requires a strong lineup, good communication with regulators, and a meticulous business plan. Entry into the Hong Kong Stock Connect relies on the investor's background, historical records, and macro vision, which is challenging. US stocks are easily speculated due to quantitative trading and liquidity advantages; Hong Kong stocks lack liquidity and require strong financing and roadshow capabilities. Hong Kong brokerage stocks have been hyped due to the upgrade of license No. 1, but imitating Robinhood's market maker rebate model requires high-end clientele and quality teams, which most brokerages find difficult to replicate, and the boom may turn into "a mess." If Hong Kong can create a leading coin-stock player, it will attract significant attention, suitable for a "better to be a chicken head" strategy, but it requires careful planning and regulatory support to guard against market volatility and policy risks.

Part 3: Besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, What Other Opportunities Exist in Public Chain Coin Stocks

1. Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Cut Impacts

Principal Yu's Question: How do you view the macro situation in the second half of the year and the next couple of years? How do interest rate cuts and tariff risks affect the market?

Teacher Zheng Di's Answer: The US economy is experiencing a quarter-on-quarter decline, with slowing growth. If there are no tariff war disruptions, interest rate cuts could occur in June or July, but the threat of tariffs has delayed this until September, and the market has already reacted in advance. Trump needs to address the rollover of national debt issuance and is hesitant to take drastic actions in the short term, but if US-China negotiations are not extended by 90 days, the period from late August to September poses tariff war risks, which may trigger a pullback. The 2026 midterm elections (primaries starting March 5) will force Trump to stimulate the economy and stock market; historical patterns show that midterm elections during a second term often result in significant losses (an average loss of 37-41 seats). If the extension is for 90 days, the risk will push to November-December, with August-September being relatively stable. The market's learning effect will prevent deep pullbacks, and bottom-fishing funds will enter. The bull market in coin stocks is driven by the resonance of policies and liquidity, showing a healthy trend. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations, while long-term opportunities in RWA and stablecoins are promising.

2. Background of Interest Rate Cuts and Federal Reserve Policies

Principal Yu's Question: How should we interpret Powell's term and the logic of interest rate cuts? Do the economic and fiscal conditions support interest rate cuts?

Teacher Zheng Di's Answer: The US economy is deteriorating quarter-on-quarter, with leading indicators like consumer confidence declining. The Federal Reserve should have cut rates earlier if not for tariff impacts. Two rate cuts are expected in September, with two to three more next year, and a rate expectation of 3% by the end of 2026, possibly dropping to 2%. The US GDP relies 70% on consumption, with 33%-40% of household wealth allocated to the stock market. A stock market decline drags down consumer confidence, and the president needs to maintain stock market stability. The Federal Reserve's communications indicate that preventive interest rate cuts are necessary to address economic cooling, as high rates are detrimental to the economy. The fiscal situation is acceptable, but the data is not as strong as before; interest rate cuts are driven by economic demand, not by Trump. The bull market in coin stocks is supported by the resonance of policies and liquidity, with the benefits of interest rate cuts being anticipated. When cuts occur, there may not be a significant surge; attention should be paid to leading indicators rather than lagging GDP, while exploring opportunities in RWA and stablecoin tracks.

3. Comparison of Pure Coin Trading and Coin-Stock Strategies

Principal Yu's Question: In the coin-stock environment, which strategy is better: pure coin trading, pure stock trading, or co-trading of coin stocks?

Teacher Zheng Di's Answer: Pure coin trading is feasible, such as holding ETH, Solana, or ENA, benefiting from the buying pressure of coin-stock integration. Ethereum has failed to break the annual line (2850-2900) four times, but after the fifth attempt, it surged close to 4000, with the annual line breakthrough attracting trend funds. Coin-holding companies (like Be Mine) drive breakthroughs, and holding ETH (buying at 2800-2900 yields over 20% profit) is more direct than trading micro-strategies. Solana and ENA are similar; researching coin-holding companies can guide additional investments. Co-trading of coin stocks is superior, as micro-strategy companies (like Spade) amplify returns through premiums and leverage, but volatility must be monitored. Pure stock trading should focus on coin-holding mining stocks, which have low valuations and high potential. The integration of coin stocks brings in capital inflows; pure coin trading is effective, but combining micro-strategy swing trading yields higher returns, requiring a balance of risk and liquidity, with attention to ecosystems like Conflux and RWA.

4. Opportunities in Exchanges and Stablecoin Payments

Principal Yu's Question: What opportunities exist in exchanges, stablecoin payments, and other tracks within the integration of coin stocks?

Teacher Zheng Di's Answer: Exchanges like Coinbase have a full valuation, having doubled since buying at $200, with sufficient short-term logic. Coinbase's spot business is impacted by ETFs, with trading fees for Bitcoin and Ethereum dropping from 50%-55% to 36%, while XRP and Solana have become the main players. ETF pressures may further impact profits this year. In the future, reliance will be on derivatives (with Deribit acquisition) and offshore business; Deribit contributed over $200 million in profits from a trading volume of $1.2 trillion last year, while Coinbase's offshore derivatives had a limited impact of $800 billion in the first quarter. BKKT is affected by the exit of MicroStrategy, with low revenue (only $11 million in fees in the first quarter) and a 40% discount on its stock price, leaving its prospects unclear. The stablecoin USDE has surged in scale (from $5 billion to $7 billion), while USTTB (with a scale of $1.4 billion) is taking a compliant route, earning an 11% perpetual contract short fee rate plus 4% staking yield. Coin-holding mining stocks (like Core Scientific and Galaxy) are transitioning to data centers, with gross margins of 75%-80% and high valuations, presenting undervalued opportunities that are better than the short-term potential of exchanges. RWA projects like Conflux are also worth paying attention to.

Summary

The 180th Uweb live class revealed the collaborative trend between the crypto market and traditional finance through an in-depth discussion of the Web3 Data Weekly Report and the integration of coin stocks. On-chain data indicates that the main upward wave is in the early stages, with the BTC peak yet to be reached, and there is significant potential in the RWA and stablecoin tracks. The integration of coin stocks aligns with the US debt strategy, with internet brokerages and coin-holding mining stocks presenting the most opportunities among the seven major tracks. The development of Hong Kong stocks needs to overcome regulatory and liquidity challenges. Macro-wise, the key variables are the interest rate cuts in September and tariff negotiations, necessitating caution against short-term volatility. Investors should focus on the Web3 and AI tracks, combining on-chain data with macro dynamics, reasonably allocate positions, and seize the 50%-500% profit opportunities brought by RWA and stablecoins while guarding against policy and market risks.

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