Key Points:
Bitcoin is leading its long-term "power law" curve, which has historically led to price surges in previous cycles.
The decline of the dollar and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts may trigger a broader risk appetite rebound, with Bitcoin being a major beneficiary.
The spot Bitcoin ETF attracted 70% of the inflows from gold in 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose 10% in July, reaching a new high of $118,600. Anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 stated that this may just be the beginning of a parabolic rise. The analyst noted that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could be valued as high as $258,000.
According to apsk32, Bitcoin's price movement follows a long-term power law trend line, a mathematical model reflecting the exponential growth of BTC over time. This model measures price deviations not only in dollar terms but also in time units, a method known as power law time profiling.
The analyst explained that Bitcoin is slightly ahead of its power law curve by more than two years, meaning that if the price remains unchanged, the long-term trend line would take over two years to intersect again. Apsk32 stated, "We are currently using this indicator with over 79% of historical data. The top 20% is what I call the 'extreme greed' zone. These are the peaks that occur every four years."
The "extreme greed" zone ranges from $112,000 to $258,000, which is the area seen during the Bitcoin frenzy peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. The analyst hinted that "if the four-year pattern continues," Bitcoin could be between $200,000 and $300,000 by Christmas, with bullish momentum starting to wane in early 2026.
Similarly, Satraj Bambra, CEO of the perpetual trading platform Rails, told Cointelegraph that some macroeconomic forces could drive Bitcoin significantly higher in 2025. Bambra pointed out that the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and a shift to lower interest rates, potentially addressing the economic drag from rising tariffs under new Fed leadership, could be key catalysts. These changes may trigger a broad rebound in risk assets, with Bitcoin expected to benefit.
Bambra mentioned that a drop in the dollar index (DXY) below 100 is a key early signal of this macro shift, suggesting that a wave of rate cuts and new stimulus measures may be on the horizon. In this context, the CEO stated, "I see Bitcoin parabolically rising in the $300K–$500K range, driven by two key forces."
According to Ecoinometrics, the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is catching up to gold, attracting 70% of its net inflows year-to-date. This strong recovery, which started slowly in 2025, indicates growing institutional interest and confidence in Bitcoin as a legitimate store of value.
Bitcoin remains a risk asset, with a moderate correlation to the Nasdaq 100 index over the past 12 months, consistent with its five-year average. Its low correlation with gold and bonds highlights its unique portfolio role.
Echoing this view, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, recently stated that the baton has returned to Bitcoin. According to Timmer, the gap in the Sharpe ratio between Bitcoin and gold has narrowed, indicating that BTC offers higher risk-adjusted returns. The Sharpe ratio measures the excess return an asset provides relative to the risk taken, compared to a risk-free benchmark adjusted for volatility.
The chart below, based on weekly data from 2018 to July 2025, highlights how Bitcoin's returns (1x) are gradually approaching those of gold (4x). In terms of relative performance, gold stands at $20.34, while Bitcoin has climbed to $16.95.
Related: The U.S. Democratic Party strikes back at digital asset legislation with "Anti-Crypto Corruption Week"
Original article: “Based on the ‘Power Law’ Model, Bitcoin (BTC) Christmas Rally Could Rise to $200,000 or $300,000”
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