Due to the inherently low liquidity over the weekend and the U.S. stock market being closed, all panic emotions could only be released in the cryptocurrency market, leading to an excessive drop in $BTC. From a timing perspective, the main sell-off occurred during the Eastern U.S. trading hours, while Asian and European investors reacted relatively mildly, with several signs of rebound even appearing during the Asian time zone. This amplification of sentiment is essentially caused by insufficient liquidity; if it were a normal working day, the decline might not have been so severe.

Although geopolitical conflicts have driven up oil prices, the impact on the Federal Reserve is limited, as Powell has previously stated that oil shocks are short-term disturbances. Currently, the market is primarily focused on Trump's tariff policy. Structurally, this round of decline is highly similar to the tariff panic in February; if the situation eases, the market is expected to rebound quickly. The support for BTC in the $93,000 to $98,000 range remains solid, with no signs of on-chain panic collapse. Next, it will depend on whether Asian investors choose to buy the dip or continue to panic sell after the CME opens.

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