Many friends have left messages asking whether Iran will directly attack the U.S. mainland or if the conflict will continue to escalate. My personal view is that while there is a possibility of the conflict expanding, the probability of a direct attack on the mainland is low.
First, there is the issue of capability. Iran's ballistic missiles are sufficient to reach Israel, Syria, and even U.S. bases in the Middle East, but crossing the Atlantic to hit the U.S. mainland is essentially impossible. Iran does not have intercontinental missiles or global projection capabilities, let alone air superiority and logistical support.
Second, there is the issue of consequences. If Iran were to actually strike the U.S. mainland, even if it were a symbolic attack, the U.S. response would almost certainly be comprehensive retaliation—not just military strikes, but also full sanctions, cutting off oil, and even regime change. The Iranian leadership is not unaware of this; they dare to engage in proxy wars in the surrounding regions, but betting the fate of the nation is simply not worth it.
So how will Iran retaliate? This is the key point:
Attacking U.S. military bases in the Middle East, such as those in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, and Bahrain. These locations have already experienced multiple attacks, and the difficulty of defense is much higher than that of the U.S. mainland. This is the most likely scenario and is already happening.
Utilizing proxies, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, to attack U.S. allies or assets, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, or even shipping routes around the Suez Canal.
Cyberattacks, which can easily be overlooked, but in reality, Iran has already been attacking Israel and Saudi Arabia on the cyber front. U.S. infrastructure, financial systems, and even civilian platforms are theoretically all potential targets.
The risk of hostage situations and terrorist attacks is rising, which may be what the U.S. is most concerned about right now. After all, many Americans are stationed or on business trips in various Middle Eastern countries, and if Iran intends to act, it could very likely trigger a regional diplomatic crisis.
In summary, Iran's threat to the U.S. mainland is limited, which means the impact on the market will not expand indefinitely, but it is likely to seek opportunities to act on the periphery. Currently, because it is still the weekend, U.S. stocks have not yet reacted. If by Monday's market opening there is still no positive news or ceasefire information, it may lead to risk-averse sentiment among U.S. stock investors.
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