Author / Digital Finance Observation
A transformation interwoven with political capital and financial innovation is pushing the United States to the global high ground of cryptocurrency regulation—stablecoins have become the "digital savior" of the U.S. debt crisis and a "digital moat" for the dollar's hegemony.
1. Milestone Significance of the Legislation
On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Senate passed the "Stablecoin National Innovation Act" (GENIUS Act) with an overwhelming vote of 68 to 30, marking the first establishment of a federal-level regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States. The core breakthroughs of the legislation include:
Centralized Regulation: Granting the Treasury absolute dominance over stablecoin issuers, requiring all dollar stablecoins to be issued by licensed institutions, with reserve assets needing to be 100% backed by cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
Expanded Issuer Eligibility: Allowing banks, fintech companies, and large retailers (such as Walmart and Amazon) to issue their own stablecoins, while restricting tech giants from independently issuing coins to prevent market monopolization.
Strict Risk Control: Prohibiting interest payments to holders, mandating monthly audits, and excluding DeFi protocol developers from the definition of "digital asset service providers" to preserve innovation space for decentralized finance.
Table: Key Provisions of the GENIUS Act
Regulatory Area
Core Requirements
Impact Scope
Issuance Eligibility
Limited to federally/state licensed institutions
Ends the "everyone can issue coins" era, Tether and others face compliance pressure
Reserve Assets
100% cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds
Injects new demand directly into the U.S. Treasury bond market
Compliance Obligations
Real-time audits + anti-money laundering/KYC
Increases operational costs, small and medium issuers may exit
Technical Exemption
DeFi protocol developers are exempt from regulation
Protects the legal space for underlying technological innovation
This legislation is seen as a "watershed event" for the cryptocurrency industry—after the industry spent $250 million on lobbying, the U.S. Congress has finally opened its doors to crypto capital.
2. Multiple Impacts on the U.S. Economy
(1) The "Digital Antidote" to the U.S. Debt Crisis
Filling the Debt Gap: Treasury Secretary Basant stated that the reserve requirements for stablecoins could create "$2 trillion in new demand" for U.S. Treasury bonds, alleviating the pressure of a $38 trillion fiscal deficit. Currently, Tether holds $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, exceeding Germany's sovereign holdings; if the legislation is fully implemented, stablecoin issuers may become the largest buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Low-Cost Financing Tool: By mandating stablecoins to be backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. can convert on-chain funds into Treasury subscription funds at nearly zero cost, creating a new channel for the "dollar cycle."
(2) The Digital Extension of Dollar Hegemony
Global Payment Restructuring: The cross-border payment efficiency of stablecoins far exceeds that of traditional systems (settlement time reduced from 60 minutes to 3 seconds, failure rate down to 0.07%), further promoting the dollar's dominance in digital trade. Standard Chartered predicts that by 2028, the scale of stablecoins will reach $2 trillion, handling 35% of global payment clearing volume.
Countering De-dollarization: The EU's MiCA legislation restricts offshore stablecoins, China is advancing the digital yuan, and the U.S. is using the GENIUS Act to position dollar stablecoins as the "global digital dollar," delaying the decline of monetary hegemony.
(3) A New Engine for Economic Growth
Marginal Contribution to GDP: IMF models show that a 10% increase in cryptocurrency market value could raise U.S. GDP by 0.2 percentage points.
Accelerated Integration with Traditional Finance: Compliant stablecoins promote the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), with Boston Consulting estimating this market could reach $16 trillion, opening new profit scenarios for Wall Street.
3. Reshaping the Cryptocurrency Market
(1) Shift in Power Structure
Monopoly of Licensed Institutions: The share of compliant exchanges in spot trading volume surged from 42% in 2024 to 79% in Q2 2025, with a weekly net inflow of $4.7 billion being 12 times that of unlicensed platforms. Circle's USDC, due to 99.1% reserve transparency, captures 68% of the global crypto payment market, becoming the biggest winner.
Entry of Traditional Giants: Bank of America and JPMorgan are exploring partnerships to issue coins, while Amazon and Walmart plan to launch retail stablecoins, causing payment stocks like Visa and Mastercard to drop.
(2) Restructuring Market Volatility
Deep Binding with U.S. Stocks: The 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index rose from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.78 in 2025, with the crypto market becoming a new medium for dollar liquidity transmission.
High Volatility Risk in Stagflation Environment: If the U.S. economy falls into a "high inflation + low growth" dilemma, the median three-month volatility of Bitcoin could reach 86%, exacerbating liquidity black hole risks.
Table: Stablecoin Market Growth and U.S. Treasury Demand Forecast
Time Point
Stablecoin Scale
Potential Demand for U.S. Treasury Bonds
Dominant Institutions
2025
$250 billion
$120 billion (Tether holdings)
Tether, Circle
2028 (Forecast)
$2 trillion
$1.2 trillion
Banks + Retail Giants
2030 (Forecast)
35% of global payments
Become the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds
Amazon, Walmart
4. Restructuring and Countering the International Financial Landscape
Hong Kong's "Renminbi Stablecoin" Breakthrough: Through the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft," exploring the issuance of stablecoins backed by offshore renminbi to resist the digital penetration of the dollar.
Regulatory Paradigm Competition: The EU's MiCA legislation sets limits on offshore stablecoin transaction volumes, while China accelerates cross-border trials of the digital yuan, and the G20 enters a phase of "institutional competition."
New Battlefield for Sovereign Reserves: The U.S. "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act" includes 200,000 BTC (6% of circulation) in national reserves; if multiple countries follow suit, Bitcoin valuations could see a significant leap.
5. Political Games and Controversy
(1) The "Interest Loop" of the Trump Family
Private Wealth Expansion: Trump is expected to profit over $57 million from crypto projects in 2024, and his family's supported World Liberty Financial (WLFI) issued the USD1 stablecoin, raising insider trading suspicions after WLFI purchased $20 million in tokens before the bill passed.
Bundling Policy and Business: Democrats criticize the legislation for not restricting politicians from engaging in stablecoin issuance, with Senator Warren denouncing it as "turning cryptocurrency into a private treasury."
(2) Concerns Over Systemic Risk
Bank Risk Transmission: During the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, USDC lost its peg; if banks issue stablecoins with high leverage, it could lead to a repeat of the 2008 subprime mortgage chain collapse.
Taxpayer Bailout Controversy: A former Federal Reserve governor warned that the legislation does not clarify the responsibility for crisis rescue, which could ultimately burden public finances with losses.
6. Future Challenges: From Legislation to Global Order Restructuring
Although the GENIUS Act has passed the Senate, it still needs to reconcile differences with the House's "STABLE Act":
Struggle for Regulatory Authority: The Senate version centralizes power in the Treasury, while the House version distributes it among multiple agencies, including the Federal Reserve and OCC.
Timeline for Implementation: If a compromise can be reached before August, Trump may sign it into law within the year, marking the beginning of the "compliant stablecoin era."
Deeper challenges lie in whether the U.S. can balance "financial innovation" with "risk control":
Technological Aspect: Solutions like zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP) attempt to balance privacy and compliance, but centralized regulation may stifle innovations like algorithmic stablecoins.
Strategic Aspect: The global expansion of dollar stablecoins may exacerbate capital outflows from emerging markets, triggering a new type of currency war.
Conclusion: The "Institutional Usurpation" of Monetary Sovereignty in the Digital Age
Trump's stablecoin strategy is far from a simple financial regulation—it is a "digital savior" that converts dollar flows on the blockchain into U.S. Treasury subscriptions, backed by national credit, and establishes America's "rule hegemony" in the crypto world through institutional export. As Amazon's stablecoin replaces Visa credit cards and Tether becomes a larger holder of U.S. Treasury bonds than Germany, the global financial order is quietly being reshaped in the resonance of code and policy.
The metaphor of history has never changed: those who can define currency control the lifeblood of the economy. In this marriage of the dollar and blockchain, the U.S. is attempting to co-opt the "decentralized ideal" of crypto as the "digital wings" for the continuation of its hegemony.
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